比特币（BTC）面临与2022年熊市底部类似的条件，因为美国企业认为即将到来的“非常高风险”。

定量比特币和数字资产基金Capriole Investments的创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）在他的最新分析中，在美国开始打印资金时询问。

The founder of quantitative Bitcoin (BTC) and digital asset fund Capriole Investments has weighed in on when the US might start "printing money" again.

定量比特币（BTC）和数字资产基金Capriole Investments的创始人何时开始“印刷资金”。

In his latest analysis, Charles Edwards began with US business expectations seeing “very high risk” to come, especially with President Donald Trump announcing worldwide reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2.

查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）在最新的分析中以美国的业务期望开始，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统于4月2日宣布全球互惠贸易关税。

Bitcoin reacted noticeably worse than US stocks as a result,

结果，比特币的反应明显比美国股票更糟糕，因此

Pointing out that the S&P 500 managed to close the Wall Street trading session 0.7% higher on April 1, despite this, Edwards notes that US business expectations are now displaying the type of uncertainty seen only three times since the turn of the millennium.

爱德华兹指出，标准普尔500指数在4月1日设法关闭了华尔街交易会0.7％，尽管如此，爱德华兹指出，自千年之交以来，美国的业务期望现在仅显示出3次不确定性。

"Considering this as tariffs come in "higher than expected". The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022," he stated to X followers.

他向X追随者表示：“考虑到这一点，因为关税比预期的要高。

An accompanying chart showed the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) sliding back below 15 for the first time since the start of 2024.

随附的图表显示，自2024年初以来，费城美联储的商业前景调查（BOS）首次滑到15以下。

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey vs. S&P 500. Source: Charles Edwards/X

费城美联储业务前景调查与标准普尔500指数。资料来源：查尔斯·爱德华兹/x

Late 2022, meanwhile, was the pit of the most recent crypto bear market when BTC/USD reversed at $15,600.

与此同时，2022年末是BTC/USD的最新加密熊市市场的坑中，价格为15,600美元。

In Capriole's latest market update, released on March 31, Edwards acknowledged that BOS data can produce unreliable signals over market sentiment but argued that it should not be ignored.

在3月31日发布的Capriole的最新市场更新中，爱德华兹承认，BOS数据可以在市场情绪上产生不可靠的信号，但认为不应忽略它。

"While no guarantee of the future outlook (this metric does have false signals) this is a data reading we have had before at very high risk zones (year 2000, 2008 and 2022), telling us to keep a very open mind," he wrote.

他写道：“尽管无法保证未来的前景（该指标确实具有错误的信号），但这是我们以前在非常高风险区域（2000年，2008年和2022年）的数据读数，告诉我们保持非常开放的态度。”

For Bitcoin, a key level to watch in the tariff aftermath is $91,000, with Capriole suggesting that US macroeconomic moves would "decide the ultimate technical trend from here."

对于比特币而言，在关税后观看的关键水平为91,000美元，Capriole表明美国宏观经济的举动将“从这里决定最终的技术趋势”。

"All else equal, a daily close above $91K would be a strong bullish reclaim signal," the update explained alongside the weekly BTC/USD chart.

更新与每周的BTC/USD图表一起解释说：“其他所有同等，每天的收盘价超过$ 91k将是一个强烈的看涨回收信号。”

BTC/USD 1-day chart (screenshot). Source: Capriole Investments

BTC/USD 1天图表（屏幕快照）。资料来源：Capriole Investments

BTC price focus on US liquidity trend

BTC价格关注美国流动性趋势

As Cointelegraph reported, a silver lining for crypto and risk assets could come in the form of increasing global liquidity.

正如Cointelegraph所报道的那样，加密和风险资产的一线希望可能以增加全球流动性的形式出现。

In the US, the Fed has already begun to loosen tight financial policy, with bets on a return to so-called quantitative easing (QE) varying.

在美国，美联储已经开始放松严格的财务政策，押注返回所谓的定量宽松（QE）变化。

"How long until the Powell printer starts humming?" Edwards queried.

“鲍威尔打印机开始嗡嗡作响多久？”爱德华兹查询。

M2 money supply, meanwhile, is due for an "influx" - something which has historically spawned major BTC price upside.

同时，M2货币供应将是“涌入”的 - 历史上已经产生了BTC的主要价格上涨空间。

"The BIG take-away (the most important observation) is that a big M2 influx is coming. The exact date is less important," popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in an X thread this week.

“大型M2涌入即将到来的大型外卖（最重要的观察）。确切的日期不太重要，”流行的分析师科林谈到了本周X线程中预测的Crypto。

A comparative chart hinted at a potential BTC price rebound by the start of May.

比较图表暗示了5月初的潜在BTC价格反弹。

US M2 money supply vs BTC/USD chart. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X

美国M2货币供应与BTC/USD图表。资料来源：Colin Talks Crypto/X