比特币（BTC）的价格稳定稳定接近$ 80,00，因为美国贸易战争的重新点燃，为突破奠定了基础

比特币价格在4月3日保持稳定接近80,00美元，尽管不确定性不确定性，但美国贸易紧张局势和

NOIDA, INDIA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin price held steady on April 3, showing resilience despite lingering uncertainty from escalating U.S. trade tensions and slowing macroeconomic signals. The cryptocurrency continues consolidating within the $82,000-$85,000 range, with analysts and investors now watching for a macro trigger to break this sideways movement.

印度诺伊达（Coinchapter.com） - 4月3日，比特币价格稳定，尽管不确定性越来越不确定性，但美国贸易紧张局势加剧并放缓了宏观经济信号。加密货币继续在82,000至85,000美元的范围内巩固，分析师和投资者现在正在关注宏观触发以打破侧向运动。

President Donald Trump reignited trade war rhetoric by announcing a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, with further tariffs on foreign goods expected this month. These policies, aimed at reducing the $1.2 trillion trade deficit, have raised fears of stagflation-slower growth combined with sticky inflation.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统通过宣布进口车辆的25％关税，重新点燃了贸易战争的言论，本月预计外国商品的征收进一步关税。这些政策旨在减少1.2万亿美元的贸易赤字，使人们担心滞轮速增长与粘性通货膨胀相结合。

Global markets responded cautiously. Equities failed to reclaim key moving averages, and crypto markets mirrored the indecision. However, signs emerge that the Federal Reserve could step in to offset the economic drag.

全球市场做出了谨慎的反应。股票未能收回关键移动平均值，加密货币市场反映了犹豫不决。但是，出现迹象表明美联储可能会介入以抵消经济阻力。

Analysts now believe the Fed will lean toward easing, with the first rate cut expected as early as June. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 58.5% probability of a rate cut at the June 18 meeting.

分析师现在认为，美联储将倾向于放松身心，最早在6月的一流削减。根据CME Group的FedWatch工具的数据，交易员现在分配了58.5％的率在6月18日的会议上降低了税率。

Crypto research firm Nansen estimates a 70% chance that Bitcoin and Ethereum will bottom before that cut materializes. With persistent fears over consumer demand, slowing growth, and the search for liquidity, Bitcoin appears poised to benefit from any Fed-induced tailwind in the coming months.

加密研究公司Nansen估计比特币和以太坊的机会有70％的机会，然后才能削减。由于对消费者需求的持续担忧，增长放缓以及对流动性的寻找，比特币似乎有望在未来几个月中受益于任何联邦助长的逆风。

Tariffs, Liquidity, and Bitcoin's Historical Setup For Breakout

关税，流动性和比特币的历史设置

关税，流动性和比特币的历史设置

Bitcoin's current range-bound structure could be hiding a bullish macro shift. President Donald Trump's renewed focus on protectionist trade policies has triggered fear of a looming recession.

比特币的当前距离结构可能隐藏了看涨的宏观变化。唐纳德·特朗普总统对贸易保护主义政策的重新关注引发了人们对迫在眉睫的衰退的恐惧。

Further tariffs on foreign goods are expected to be announced this month, and investors are preparing for more economic disruption.

预计本月将宣布对外国商品的进一步关税，投资者正在为更加经济中断做准备。

As economic pressure builds, markets are adjusting rate expectations. The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June 18 meeting has risen to 58.5% from 58% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

随着经济压力的建立，市场正在调整利率期望。根据CME Group的FedWatch工具的数据，在联邦储备6月18日会议上降低利率的可能性已从上周的58％上升至58.5％。

Though a small shift, it reflects growing conviction that the Fed will act to shield growth from trade-driven drag. More rate cuts mean more liquidity, and Bitcoin tends to benefit when liquidity conditions improve.

尽管发生了很小的转变，但它反映出越来越多的信念，即美联储将采取行动避免增长免受贸易驱动的阻力。削减速度意味着更多的流动性，当流动性条件改善时，比特币往往会受益。

Crypto intelligence platform Nansen estimates a 70% chance that Bitcoin and Ethereum will find a local bottom before June. Both assets are currently trading significantly below their year-to-date highs.

加密情报平台Nansen估计比特币和以太坊将在6月之前找到本地底部的机会70％。目前，这两种资产的交易均高于其年初高点。

Analysts believe the conclusion of tariff negotiations could reduce uncertainty and provide a macro catalyst for risk assets.

分析师认为，关税谈判的结论可以减少不确定性，并为风险资产提供宏观催化剂。

Historical parallels support that view. During the 2019 U.S.-China trade war, Bitcoin rallied from $3,300 to over $13,800 as the Fed pivoted to rate cuts.

历史相似之处支持这种观点。在2019年美国 - 中国贸易战期间，比特币从3,300美元上涨至13,800美元以上，因为美联储转为削减税率。

Goldman Sachs now expects three cuts in 2025, citing higher unemployment and weaker GDP growth.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）现在预计在2025年将有3次削减，理由是GDP的增长较高，而GDP的增长较弱。

Real yields are also slipping again. Bitcoin has historically surged during negative real rate environments, particularly in 2012-2013 and 2020-2021, reinforcing the potential for a breakout in Q2.

实际产量也再次滑倒。历史上，比特币在负面速率环境中飙升，尤其是在2012年至2013年和2020-2021，增强了第2季度突破的可能性。

A multi-cycle view of Bitcoin against U.S. real yields reinforces the outlook. In both 2012-2013 and 2020-2021, BTC staged powerful rallies during extended periods of negative real interest rates. The chart highlights these phases with shaded zones, showing how falling inflation-adjusted bond returns coincided with Bitcoin's steepest upside moves.

比特币与美国的多周期视图产生了前景。在2012 - 2013年和2020-2021中，BTC在负面利率的延长期间进行了强大的集会。该图表以阴影区域突出显示了这些阶段，显示了通货膨胀调整后的债券的下降如何与比特币最陡峭的上行移动相吻合。

As real yields begin slipping again in 2025, the structure resembles prior pre-breakout periods. Bitcoin's current consolidation under $85,000 may not be a sign of weakness, but a pause before liquidity conditions trigger the next leg higher.

随着实际产量在2025年再次开始滑倒，该结构类似于先前的爆发前期。比特币的当前合并在$ 85,000以下可能不是弱点的迹象，但是在流动性条件触发下一条腿之前，请停下来。

Ascending Triangle Pattern Puts Bitcoin On Path To Retest Record Highs

上升的三角形模式使比特币走上重新测试高点的路径

上升的三角形模式使比特币走上重新测试高点的路径

The BTC USD pair has formed a bullish technical pattern called the ‘ascending triangle‘, which is clearly visible on the weekly chart. The setup is a textbook continuation pattern that signals pressure building for a breakout. A rising lower trendline, showing buyers stepping in at higher levels, and a flat upper resistance at around $104,800.

BTC USD对形成了一种看涨的技术模式，称为“上升三角”，在每周图表上清楚地看到了该模式。该设置是一种教科书延续模式，该模式向压力构建发出标志以进行突破。较低的趋势线的上升，显示买家介入较高的水平，平坦的上部阻力约为104,800美元。

Historically, this structure reflects a tightening battle between bulls and bears, typically resolved to the upside.

从历史上看，这种结构反映了公牛与熊之间的紧缩战斗，通常可以在上升空间。

The triangle's price target is calculated by measuring its vertical height and then projecting that distance above the breakout point. The resulting target is approximately $170,565. While this is theoretical, even a partial move—just 40% of the projected breakout—would lift BTC above $121,000, enough to confirm a new all-time high.

三角形的目标目标是通过测量其垂直高度，然后将突破点上方的距离投影而计算得出的。最终的目标约为170,565美元。虽然这是理论上的，但即使是部分举动（仅预计突破的40％）也可以将BTC提升到121,000美元以上，足以确认新的历史最高水平。

The setup grows more compelling as macro conditions tilt in Bitcoin's favor. Real yields are turning negative again, rate cut probabilities are rising, and recession expectations are creeping into major investment forecasts.

随着宏观条件倾斜比特币有利，该设置变得更加引人注目。实际收益率再次变成负面，降低率的概率正在上升，经济衰退期望正逐渐发展为重大投资预测。

If Bitcoin reaches

如果比特币达到