尽管la脚的价格动作，但现场比特币ETF在第一季度的流入量很大，至少有一位分析师看到接下来的三个月更大

尽管la脚的价格行动，但现货比特币ETF在第一季度看到了大量流入，至少有一位分析师看到接下来的三个月更大

The spot bitcoin ETFs saw sizable inflows in the first quarter despite the lame price action and at least one analyst sees the next three months as even bigger even if the prices don’t recover.

尽管la脚的价格行动la脚，但现货比特币ETF在第一季度看到了大量流入，并且至少有一位分析师认为，即使价格无法恢复，也至少会更大。

“Even if current market conditions persist in the second quarter, we are seeing strong traction from financial advisors and institutional investors, who are increasingly interested in making strategic allocations to cryptocurrencies," said Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise (whose BITB is among the bitcoin ETFs).

BitWise的高级投资策略师Juan Leon说：“即使当前的市场状况在第二季度持续存在，我们也看到了财务顾问和机构投资者的强烈吸引力，他们对对加密货币进行战略分配越来越感兴趣。”

"While retail interest is weak due to the fixation on price action, professional investors are recognizing the global adoption momentum spurred by the Trump administration’s embrace of bitcoin, and many are seeing these market conditions as an opportunity to start or increase an allocation.”

“尽管由于对价格行动的重视，零售利息很弱，但专业投资者正在认识到特朗普政府对比特币的拥抱所刺激的全球采用动力，许多人将这些市场条件视为开始或增加分配的机会。”

The ETFs saw over $1 billion in inflows in the first quarter of the year despite a challenging macro situation that sent the S&P 500 Index into its biggest quarterly loss since 2022 and bitcoin’s 13% plunge.

尽管有挑战性的宏观情况使标准普尔500指数陷入了2022年以来最大的季度损失，但在今年第一季度，ETF的流入量超过10亿美元。

Leon expects inflows to be even stronger in the second quarter — as much as $3 billion or even more as wirehouse platforms unlock and legislative policy progresses.

莱昂（Leon）预计，第二季度流入会更加强劲 - 随着Wirehouse平台解锁和立法政策的进展，流入将达到30亿美元甚至更多。

ETF inflows possibly less than meets the eye

ETF的流入可能少于眼睛

The $1 billion in first quarter net flows — and whatever the second quarter brings — doesn’t necessarily reflect investor interest in buying the bitcoin dip. That’s because of the so-called basis trade (also known as cash-and-carry). In this, institutional players buy the spot bitcoin ETF while shorting CME bitcoin futures, picking up yield without exposure to price movement.

第一季度净流动的10亿美元（以及第二季度带来的一切）并不一定反映了投资者对购买比特币蘸酱的兴趣。这是因为所谓的基础贸易（也称为现金和携带）。在此中，机构参与者在缩短CME比特币期货时购买了现货比特币ETF，在不暴露价格转移的情况下获得收益率。

That yield was well into the double-digits in late 2024 and remained nicely above the risk-free rate throughout much of the first quarter. It’s collapsed to the 5% area of late, suggesting arbitrage-related ETF inflows may dry up.

在2024年底，这一收益率很高，并且在第一季度的大部分时间里保持远高于无风险率。它已崩溃到最近的5％面积，表明与套利相关的ETF流入可能会变干。

Back to bull case: It’s still early

回到公牛案：还很早

“While a favorable price environment would certainly be a boost, it’s important to remember that adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs by these groups is still in its infancy,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, who is also bullish on the outlook for inflows throughout the rest of the year. “As they grow more comfortable allocating to bitcoin, this should provide a meaningful tailwind for inflows.”

ETF商店总裁Nate Geraci说：“虽然价格合理的环境肯定会提高，但重要的是要记住，这些群体采用现货比特币ETF仍处于起步阶段。” “随着它们变得更加舒适地分配给比特币，这应该为流入提供有意义的方风。”

While many institutions have already made their first allocations into bitcoin in the past year, it represents only a small fraction of ETF investment, with most of the money still coming from retail investors — something recently noted by BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink, whose IBIT is the asset-gathering leader among the spot ETFs. The more favorable regulatory stance toward the industry, not to mention the government’s own potential allocation into bitcoin, however, means that ratio could soon shift.

尽管在过去的一年中，许多机构已经将其首次分配给了比特币，但它仅代表了ETF投资的一小部分，大部分资金仍然来自零售投资者，这是Blackrock（NYSE：BLK）首席执行官Larry Fink最近指出的，其IBIT是IBET的IBET，其IBIT是现货ETF中的资产收入领导者。然而，对该行业的监管立场更为有利，更不用说政府自身对比特币的潜在分配意味着比率很快就会发生变化。

During an ETF conference in Vegas earlier this month, a survey showed that 57% of advisors plan on increasing their allocations into crypto ETFs this year as crypto has lost its “reputational risk” attribute among advisors.

在本月初在拉斯维加斯举行的ETF会议上，一项调查显示，由于加密货币失去了顾问之间的“声誉风险”属性，因此今年有57％的顾问计划将其分配给加密ETF。

The view that bitcoin could serve as a “safe haven” in times of an economic decline, which investors remain anxious about, could also boost confidence in the asset, especially as fears of a potential recession grow.

在经济下降时期，投资者仍然对比特币可以成为“避风港”的看法也可以增强对资产的信心，尤其是随着人们对潜在衰退的担忧增长。

“If we see continued rate cut expectations, signs of economic uncertainty, or deepening fears of a potential recession in the US, Bitcoin’s role as ‘digital gold’ will likely support additional inflows,” said David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets. “While some short-term traders may rotate out if price weakness persists, long-term players will continue to keep inflows strong, especially as institutional adoption takes off and drives demand throughout the year."

Wave Digital Assets的首席执行官David Siemer表示：“如果我们看到继续减少期望，经济不确定性的迹象或加深对美国潜在衰退的恐惧，那么比特币作为'数字黄金'的作用可能会支持更多的流入。” “尽管某些短期交易者可能会稳定下降，但长期参与者将继续保持强劲的流入，尤其是随着机构采用的起步并全年推动需求。”