儘管la腳的價格動作，但現場比特幣ETF在第一季度的流入量很大，至少有一位分析師看到接下來的三個月更大

儘管la腳的價格行動，但現貨比特幣ETF在第一季度看到了大量流入，至少有一位分析師看到接下來的三個月更大

The spot bitcoin ETFs saw sizable inflows in the first quarter despite the lame price action and at least one analyst sees the next three months as even bigger even if the prices don’t recover.

儘管la腳的價格行動la腳，但現貨比特幣ETF在第一季度看到了大量流入，並且至少有一位分析師認為，即使價格無法恢復，也至少會更大。

“Even if current market conditions persist in the second quarter, we are seeing strong traction from financial advisors and institutional investors, who are increasingly interested in making strategic allocations to cryptocurrencies," said Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise (whose BITB is among the bitcoin ETFs).

BitWise的高級投資策略師Juan Leon說：“即使當前的市場狀況在第二季度持續存在，我們也看到了財務顧問和機構投資者的強烈吸引力，他們對對加密貨幣進行戰略分配越來越感興趣。”

"While retail interest is weak due to the fixation on price action, professional investors are recognizing the global adoption momentum spurred by the Trump administration’s embrace of bitcoin, and many are seeing these market conditions as an opportunity to start or increase an allocation.”

“儘管由於對價格行動的重視，零售利息很弱，但專業投資者正在認識到特朗普政府對比特幣的擁抱所刺激的全球採用動力，許多人將這些市場條件視為開始或增加分配的機會。”

The ETFs saw over $1 billion in inflows in the first quarter of the year despite a challenging macro situation that sent the S&P 500 Index into its biggest quarterly loss since 2022 and bitcoin’s 13% plunge.

儘管有挑戰性的宏觀情況使標準普爾500指數陷入了2022年以來最大的季度損失，但在今年第一季度，ETF的流入量超過10億美元。

Leon expects inflows to be even stronger in the second quarter — as much as $3 billion or even more as wirehouse platforms unlock and legislative policy progresses.

萊昂（Leon）預計，第二季度流入會更加強勁 - 隨著Wirehouse平台解鎖和立法政策的進展，流入將達到30億美元甚至更多。

ETF inflows possibly less than meets the eye

ETF的流入可能少於眼睛

The $1 billion in first quarter net flows — and whatever the second quarter brings — doesn’t necessarily reflect investor interest in buying the bitcoin dip. That’s because of the so-called basis trade (also known as cash-and-carry). In this, institutional players buy the spot bitcoin ETF while shorting CME bitcoin futures, picking up yield without exposure to price movement.

第一季度淨流動的10億美元（以及第二季度帶來的一切）並不一定反映了投資者對購買比特幣蘸醬的興趣。這是因為所謂的基礎貿易（也稱為現金和攜帶）。在此中，機構參與者在縮短CME比特幣期貨時購買了現貨比特幣ETF，在不暴露價格轉移的情況下獲得收益率。

That yield was well into the double-digits in late 2024 and remained nicely above the risk-free rate throughout much of the first quarter. It’s collapsed to the 5% area of late, suggesting arbitrage-related ETF inflows may dry up.

在2024年底，這一收益率很高，並且在第一季度的大部分時間裡保持遠高於無風險率。它已崩潰到最近的5％面積，表明與套利相關的ETF流入可能會變乾。

Back to bull case: It’s still early

回到公牛案：還很早

“While a favorable price environment would certainly be a boost, it’s important to remember that adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs by these groups is still in its infancy,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, who is also bullish on the outlook for inflows throughout the rest of the year. “As they grow more comfortable allocating to bitcoin, this should provide a meaningful tailwind for inflows.”

ETF商店總裁Nate Geraci說：“雖然價格合理的環境肯定會提高，但重要的是要記住，這些群體採用現貨比特幣ETF仍處於起步階段。” “隨著它們變得更加舒適地分配給比特幣，這應該為流入提供有意義的方風。”

While many institutions have already made their first allocations into bitcoin in the past year, it represents only a small fraction of ETF investment, with most of the money still coming from retail investors — something recently noted by BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink, whose IBIT is the asset-gathering leader among the spot ETFs. The more favorable regulatory stance toward the industry, not to mention the government’s own potential allocation into bitcoin, however, means that ratio could soon shift.

儘管在過去的一年中，許多機構已經將其首次分配給了比特幣，但它僅代表了ETF投資的一小部分，大部分資金仍然來自零售投資者，這是Blackrock（NYSE：BLK）首席執行官Larry Fink最近指出的，其IBIT是IBET的IBET，其IBIT是現貨ETF中的資產收入領導者。然而，對該行業的監管立場更為有利，更不用說政府自身對比特幣的潛在分配意味著比率很快就會發生變化。

During an ETF conference in Vegas earlier this month, a survey showed that 57% of advisors plan on increasing their allocations into crypto ETFs this year as crypto has lost its “reputational risk” attribute among advisors.

在本月初在拉斯維加斯舉行的ETF會議上，一項調查顯示，由於加密貨幣失去了顧問之間的“聲譽風險”屬性，因此今年有57％的顧問計劃將其分配給加密ETF。

The view that bitcoin could serve as a “safe haven” in times of an economic decline, which investors remain anxious about, could also boost confidence in the asset, especially as fears of a potential recession grow.

在經濟下降時期，投資者仍然對比特幣可以成為“避風港”的看法也可以增強對資產的信心，尤其是隨著人們對潛在衰退的擔憂增長。

“If we see continued rate cut expectations, signs of economic uncertainty, or deepening fears of a potential recession in the US, Bitcoin’s role as ‘digital gold’ will likely support additional inflows,” said David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets. “While some short-term traders may rotate out if price weakness persists, long-term players will continue to keep inflows strong, especially as institutional adoption takes off and drives demand throughout the year."

Wave Digital Assets的首席執行官David Siemer表示：“如果我們看到繼續減少期望，經濟不確定性的跡像或加深對美國潛在衰退的恐懼，那麼比特幣作為'數字黃金'的作用可能會支持更多的流入。” “儘管某些短期交易者可能會穩定下降，但長期參與者將繼續保持強勁的流入，尤其是隨著機構採用的起步並全年推動需求。”