比特幣（BTC）面臨與2022年熊市底部類似的條件，因為美國企業認為即將到來的“非常高風險”。

定量比特幣和數字資產基金Capriole Investments的創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）在他的最新分析中，在美國開始打印資金時詢問。

The founder of quantitative Bitcoin (BTC) and digital asset fund Capriole Investments has weighed in on when the US might start "printing money" again.

定量比特幣（BTC）和數字資產基金Capriole Investments的創始人何時開始“印刷資金”。

In his latest analysis, Charles Edwards began with US business expectations seeing “very high risk” to come, especially with President Donald Trump announcing worldwide reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2.

查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）在最新的分析中以美國的業務期望開始，尤其是唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統於4月2日宣布全球互惠貿易關稅。

Bitcoin reacted noticeably worse than US stocks as a result,

結果，比特幣的反應明顯比美國股票更糟糕，因此

Pointing out that the S&P 500 managed to close the Wall Street trading session 0.7% higher on April 1, despite this, Edwards notes that US business expectations are now displaying the type of uncertainty seen only three times since the turn of the millennium.

愛德華茲指出，標準普爾500指數在4月1日設法關閉了華爾街交易會0.7％，儘管如此，愛德華茲指出，自千年之交以來，美國的業務期望現在僅顯示出3次不確定性。

"Considering this as tariffs come in "higher than expected". The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022," he stated to X followers.

他向X追隨者表示：“考慮到這一點，因為關稅比預期的要高。

An accompanying chart showed the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) sliding back below 15 for the first time since the start of 2024.

隨附的圖表顯示，自2024年初以來，費城美聯儲的商業前景調查（BOS）首次滑到15以下。

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey vs. S&P 500. Source: Charles Edwards/X

費城美聯儲業務前景調查與標準普爾500指數。資料來源：查爾斯·愛德華茲/x

Late 2022, meanwhile, was the pit of the most recent crypto bear market when BTC/USD reversed at $15,600.

與此同時，2022年末是BTC/USD的最新加密熊市市場的坑中，價格為15,600美元。

In Capriole's latest market update, released on March 31, Edwards acknowledged that BOS data can produce unreliable signals over market sentiment but argued that it should not be ignored.

在3月31日發布的Capriole的最新市場更新中，愛德華茲承認，BOS數據可以在市場情緒上產生不可靠的信號，但認為不應忽略它。

"While no guarantee of the future outlook (this metric does have false signals) this is a data reading we have had before at very high risk zones (year 2000, 2008 and 2022), telling us to keep a very open mind," he wrote.

他寫道：“儘管無法保證未來的前景（該指標確實具有錯誤的信號），但這是我們以前在非常高風險區域（2000年，2008年和2022年）的數據讀數，告訴我們保持非常開放的態度。”

For Bitcoin, a key level to watch in the tariff aftermath is $91,000, with Capriole suggesting that US macroeconomic moves would "decide the ultimate technical trend from here."

對於比特幣而言，在關稅後觀看的關鍵水平為91,000美元，Capriole表明美國宏觀經濟的舉動將“從這裡決定最終的技術趨勢”。

"All else equal, a daily close above $91K would be a strong bullish reclaim signal," the update explained alongside the weekly BTC/USD chart.

更新與每週的BTC/USD圖表一起解釋說：“其他所有同等，每天的收盤價超過$ 91k將是一個強烈的看漲回收信號。”

BTC/USD 1-day chart (screenshot). Source: Capriole Investments

BTC/USD 1天圖表（屏幕快照）。資料來源：Capriole Investments

BTC price focus on US liquidity trend

BTC價格關注美國流動性趨勢

As Cointelegraph reported, a silver lining for crypto and risk assets could come in the form of increasing global liquidity.

正如Cointelegraph所報導的那樣，加密和風險資產的一線希望可能以增加全球流動性的形式出現。

In the US, the Fed has already begun to loosen tight financial policy, with bets on a return to so-called quantitative easing (QE) varying.

在美國，美聯儲已經開始放鬆嚴格的財務政策，押注返回所謂的定量寬鬆（QE）變化。

"How long until the Powell printer starts humming?" Edwards queried.

“鮑威爾打印機開始嗡嗡作響多久？”愛德華茲查詢。

M2 money supply, meanwhile, is due for an "influx" - something which has historically spawned major BTC price upside.

同時，M2貨幣供應將是“湧入”的 - 歷史上已經產生了BTC的主要價格上漲空間。

"The BIG take-away (the most important observation) is that a big M2 influx is coming. The exact date is less important," popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in an X thread this week.

“大型M2湧入即將到來的大型外賣（最重要的觀察）。確切的日期不太重要，”流行的分析師科林談到了本週X線程中預測的Crypto。

A comparative chart hinted at a potential BTC price rebound by the start of May.

比較圖表暗示了5月初的潛在BTC價格反彈。

US M2 money supply vs BTC/USD chart. Source: Colin Talks Crypto/X

美國M2貨幣供應與BTC/USD圖表。資料來源：Colin Talks Crypto/X