對沖基金看跌押注激增與比特幣下跌同時發生

根據商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）的數據，隨著加密貨幣達到接近歷史高點，槓桿基金對比特幣（BTC）期貨的看跌押注創歷史新高。對沖基金在芝商所比特幣期貨上做空，押注價格下跌。空頭部位的激增反映出套利交易越來越受歡迎，交易者在賣出期貨的同時買入標的資產。儘管最近價格下跌，但比特幣期貨溢價仍然很高，為套利交易者提供了有吸引力的回報。

In the volatile realm of cryptocurrency trading, the first quarter of 2023 witnessed an unprecedented surge in bearish sentiment among leveraged funds, reaching an all-time high in their bets against the zenith of Bitcoin's ascent. This strategic gambit, fueled by hedge funds and commodity trading advisors as defined by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), mirrored the cryptocurrency's impending decline from its peak.

在加密貨幣交易的動盪領域，2023年第一季槓桿基金的看空情緒空前高漲，對比特幣上漲頂峰的押注達到歷史最高水準。這項策略策略由商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）定義的對沖基金和商品交易顧問推動，反映出加密貨幣即將從高峰下跌。

The CFTC's latest report unveiled a dramatic spike in the net short positions held by these hedge funds in Bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), eclipsing previous records set since their inception in late 2017. Each CME standard Bitcoin futures contract represents 5 BTC, underscoring the magnitude of this bearish posture.

CFTC 的最新報告顯示，這些對沖基金在芝加哥商品交易所(CME) 交易的比特幣期貨合約中持有的淨空頭部位大幅飆升，打破了自2017 年底成立以來創下的歷史記錄。每份CME 標準比特幣期貨合約都代表5 BTC，凸顯了這種看跌態勢的嚴重程度。

Strikingly, this surge in short positions coincides with a prevalent strategy known as carry trades, where savvy traders capitalize on the disparity between spot and futures prices. By selling futures contracts while simultaneously acquiring the underlying asset, traders can exploit arbitrage opportunities and reap the benefits of elevated premium rates. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, astutely observed that hedge funds are increasingly gravitating towards carry trades.

引人注目的是，空頭部位的激增與一種被稱為套利交易的流行策略同時發生，精明的交易者利用現貨和期貨價格之間的差異來獲利。透過出售期貨合約，同時取得標的資產，交易者可以利用套利機會並獲得較高的溢價收益。 10x Research 執行長 Markus Thielen 敏銳地觀察到，對沖​​基金越來越傾向於套利交易。

Despite Bitcoin's meteoric rise to record-breaking prices above $73,500 in March, its subsequent loss of momentum has not dampened the allure of carry trades. CME futures have maintained an annualized three-month premium surpassing 10%, as per data from Velo Data. This persistent premium offers a compelling opportunity for hedge funds, far outpacing the risk-free return of 4.36% provided by the 10-year Treasury note at the time of reporting.

儘管比特幣在 3 月迅速上漲至破紀錄的 73,500 美元以上，但其隨後的勢頭喪失並沒有削弱套利交易的吸引力。根據 Velo Data 的數據，CME 期貨三個月年化溢價維持在 10% 以上。這種持續的溢價為對沖基金提供了一個引人注目的機會，遠遠超過了報告時 10 年期國債提供的 4.36% 的無風險回報率。

However, it is crucial to acknowledge that some hedge funds may have initiated direct bets against the market, emboldened by recent robust economic data from the U.S. and prospective statements from Federal Reserve officials. These developments have cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent, aggressive rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity of monitoring inflation trends over the coming months, leaving the timing of an initial rate decrease uncertain. Furthermore, positive manufacturing data released on Monday has lowered expectations for a Fed rate cut in June to below 50%.

然而，至關重要的是要承認，在美國近期強勁的經濟數據和聯準會官員的前瞻性聲明的推動下，一些對沖基金可能已經開始直接做空市場。這些事態發展讓人對即將大幅降息的可能性產生懷疑。聯準會主席鮑威爾強調，有必要監測未來幾個月的通膨趨勢，因此首次降息的時間不確定。此外，週一公佈的積極製造業數據將聯準會6月降息預期降至50%以下。

Adding to the complexity of the market outlook, analysts are divided over the potential impact of the impending mining reward halving on Bitcoin's trajectory. This upcoming fourth halving, set to transpire later this month, will effectively halve the reward for mining a block from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, such halvings have heralded significant upward trends in Bitcoin's value, typically manifesting 12 to 18 months post-halving as the reduced supply of newly minted BTC meets sustained demand.

分析師們對於即將到來的挖礦獎勵減半對比特幣走勢的潛在影響存在分歧，這加劇了市場前景的複雜性。即將於本月稍後發生的第四次減半，將有效地將開採一個區塊的獎勵從目前的 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC。從歷史上看，此類減半預示著比特幣價值的顯著上升趨勢，通常在減半後 12 至 18 個月內顯現，因為新鑄造的 BTC 供應減少滿足了持續的需求。

Extrapolating insights from past halvings suggests a bullish trajectory, but David Duong, Coinbase's head of institutional research, cautions against drawing definitive conclusions based on a limited dataset. The advent of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States since January has introduced a transformative element to the market landscape.

從過去的減半中推斷出的見解表明了看漲的軌跡，但 Coinbase 機構研究主管 David Duong 警告不要根據有限的數據集得出明確的結論。自 1 月以來，美國現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的出現為市場格局帶來了改變。

Duong emphasizes that the influx of billions of dollars into these ETFs over a mere two-month period has permanently altered Bitcoin's market dynamics. Institutional investors now have a new avenue to gain exposure to Bitcoin, potentially influencing its response to the halving event. Given the small sample size of previous halvings and the unprecedented presence of spot ETFs, analysts are wary of projecting consistent patterns.

Duong 強調，在短短兩個月內，數十億美元湧入這些 ETF 已經永久改變了比特幣的市場動態。機構投資者現在有了新的途徑來接觸比特幣，這可能會影響其對減半事件的反應。鑑於先前減半的樣本量較小以及現貨 ETF 的空前存在，分析師對預測一致的模式持謹慎態度。

Bitcoin's unprecedented surge to record highs prior to the halving, fueled by spot ETFs, raises the possibility of a price decline post-halving. The market's reaction to this pivotal event remains shrouded in uncertainty, as the interplay of carry trades, macroeconomic factors, and investor sentiment creates a dynamic and unpredictable environment.

在現貨 ETF 的推動下，比特幣在減半前史無前例地飆升至歷史新高，增加了減半後價格下跌的可能性。市場對這一關鍵事件的反應仍然籠罩在不確定性之中，因為套利交易、宏觀經濟因素和投資者情緒的相互作用創造了一個動態且不可預測的環境。