稳定币流量萎缩、收益率曲线反转给加密市场带来潜在风险

稳定币和美国财政部收益率曲线事实上的回调可能会引发比特币的市场波动。从历史上看，收益率曲线反转预示着经济衰退和股市风险厌恶情绪，可能会蔓延到加密货币市场。稳定币作为加密货币市场资金流入的代表，在维持高价格方面比 ETF 更具影响力。然而，稳定币流入的任何放缓都可能引发调整。此外，财政赤字担忧和政治压力可能导致降息，从而在美国大选前支持风险资产和加密货币。

Shrinking Stablecoin Flows and a De-inverting Yield Curve: Potential Headwinds for Crypto

稳定币流量萎缩和收益率曲线反转：加密货币的潜在阻力

As the crypto community remains captivated by the daily inflows into U.S.-listed bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), astute market observers are casting their attention toward a more critical landscape: the realm of stablecoins and the intricate workings of the U.S. government bond market.

随着加密货币社区仍然对每天流入美国上市的比特币 (BTC) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 着迷，精明的市场观察家正在将注意力转向更关键的领域：稳定币领域和美国复杂的运作方式。政府债券市场。

"Stablecoin inflows have been the backbone of strength for the crypto market," asserted Thomas Thielen, an analyst at crypto intelligence firm Messari. "While most have been fixated on the ETF inflows, stablecoin inflows have been a more substantial driver, underpinning the elevated crypto prices."

加密情报公司 Messari 的分析师托马斯·蒂伦 (Thomas Thielen) 表示：“稳定币的流入一直是加密市场实力的支柱。” “虽然大多数人都关注 ETF 的流入，但稳定币的流入是一个更重要的驱动因素，支撑了加密货币价格的上涨。”

"A slowdown in stablecoin inflows could trigger a significant correction," Thielen cautioned.

“稳定币流入放缓可能会引发重大调整，”蒂伦警告说。

Over the years, stablecoins, designed to maintain a stable value pegged to an external reference such as the U.S. dollar, have become indispensable in facilitating cryptocurrency purchases and fueling derivatives trading. Consequently, the supply of stablecoins is widely recognized as a reliable indicator of net capital inflows into the crypto market.

多年来，稳定币旨在维持与美元等外部参考挂钩的稳定价值，在促进加密货币购买和推动衍生品交易方面已成为不可或缺的一部分。因此，稳定币的供应量被广泛认为是加密货币市场净资本流入的可靠指标。

Notably, the flow of capital into the crypto market via stablecoins has outpaced that of spot ETFs. Since the inception of spot ETFs in the U.S. on January 11, the combined market capitalization of the two leading stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), has surged by a remarkable $25.6 billion, reaching a record $143.8 billion. In contrast, spot ETFs have amassed over $12 billion since their Nasdaq debut, according to data meticulously tracked by 10x Research.

值得注意的是，通过稳定币流入加密货币市场的资金流量已经超过了现货 ETF。自 1 月 11 日美国推出现货 ETF 以来，两种领先的稳定币 Tether (USDT) 和 USD Coin (USDC) 的总市值已大幅飙升 256 亿美元，达到创纪录的 1,438 亿美元。相比之下，根据 10x Research 仔细跟踪的数据，现货 ETF 自在纳斯达克上市以来已积累了超过 120 亿美元的资金。

A visual representation of the inflows into bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins since January 11 reveals that while ETF inflows have diminished in recent weeks, the supply of the top stablecoins has continued its upward trajectory, buoying prices within the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

自 1 月 11 日以来流入比特币 ETF 和稳定币的直观图示显示，虽然近几周 ETF 流入量有所减少，但顶级稳定币的供应量仍在继续呈上升趋势，推动价格在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元范围内上涨。

Another potential source of volatility, according to Ilan Solot, co-head of digital assets at Marex Solutions, is the "de-inversion" of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

Marex Solutions 数字资产联席主管 Ilan Solot 表示，另一个潜在的波动来源是美国国债收益率曲线的“去倒挂”。

The yield curve, an essential indicator of the structure of interest rates, depicts the yield on bonds with varying terms to maturity. Conventionally, the curve exhibits an upward slope, reflecting investors' demand for a higher return for investing or lending money to the government over extended periods.

收益率曲线是利率结构的重要指标，描绘了不同到期期限的债券的收益率。通常，该曲线呈现向上的斜率，反映了投资者对长期投资或向政府贷款的更高回报的需求。

Approximately two years ago, the curve inverted, an occurrence where the yield on the two-year note surpassed that of the 10-year note, as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates.

大约两年前，随着美联储大幅加息，曲线出现倒挂，两年期国债收益率超过了十年期国债。

Historically, the yield curve tends to dis-invert at the onset of economic recessions. Now, the curve is reverting to its normal shape, driven by a faster rise in the 20-year yield, also known as "bear steepening." At the time of writing, the spread between the 10- and two-year yields stood at -0.28 basis points, a level not seen since January. In other words, the curve is merely 28 bps shy of normalization.

从历史上看，在经济衰退开始时，收益率曲线往往会反转。现在，在 20 年期国债收益率更快上升（也称为“熊市陡化”）的推动下，该曲线正在恢复正常形状。截至撰写本文时，10 年期和两年期国债收益率之间的利差为-0.28 个基点，这是自 1 月份以来从未见过的水平。换句话说，该曲线距离正常化仅差 28 个基点。

"Interpreting the curve is ever nuanced, but taking it at face value, this [bear steepening] could imply a waning confidence in either fiscal or monetary policy – or both. For instance, it could indicate that markets perceive an amplified risk of the Fed falling behind the curve or of borrowing becoming unhinged without a corresponding demand," Solot explained.

“对曲线的解释是微妙的，但从表面上看，这种[熊市陡峭化]可能意味着对财政或货币政策——或两者的信心减弱。例如，它可能表明市场认为美联储的风险被放大落后于曲线或借贷在没有相应需求的情况下变得精神错乱，”索洛特解释道。

"That's not a favorable environment for risk in general and, initially at least, should have an impact on the crypto market as well," Solot added, highlighting that a dip would present an opportunity for bitcoin to demonstrate its potential as a hedge against fiscal and monetary instability.

索洛特补充道：“总体而言，这并不是一个有利的风险环境，至少在最初阶段，也应该对加密货币市场产生影响。”他强调，比特币的下跌将为比特币提供一个机会，展示其作为财政对冲工具的潜力。和货币不稳定。

Historically, de-inversions have coincided with the onset of economic recessions and a heightened aversion to risk in the stock market.

从历史上看，去反转往往与经济衰退的爆发和股市风险厌恶情绪的加剧同时发生。

Phillip Gillespie, managing partner at U.K.-based hedge fund AWR Capital, believes that risk assets will ultimately find stability as long as the Federal Reserve continues to support the system through its overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) agreement facility.

英国对冲基金 AWR Capital 的管理合伙人 Phillip Gillespie 认为，只要美联储继续通过隔夜逆回购 (RRP) 协议工具支持该系统，风险资产最终就会稳定。

The overnight RRP is a monetary tool employed by the Fed to drain excess cash from the money market. Since early last year, the RRP facility has been drained, signifying that the once dormant cash is being redeployed, invigorating risk-taking in financial markets.

隔夜建议零售价是美联储用来从货币市场排出多余现金的货币工具。自去年初以来，RRP机制已被耗尽，这意味着曾经休眠的现金正在被重新部署，从而激发了金融市场的风险承担。

"The Fed's ongoing support of the market via the overnight reverse repo facility, coupled with discussions of rate cuts in light of ballooning fiscal deficits and government pressure to curb its financing costs, suggest that risk assets will maintain their support in the run-up to the U.S. elections," Gillespie stated.

“美联储通过隔夜逆回购工具持续支持市场，加上考虑到财政赤字不断膨胀和政府压力抑制融资成本而进行降息讨论，表明风险资产将在美国大选，”吉莱斯皮说。

In conclusion, while the crypto community remains enthralled by the daily flow of funds into bitcoin ETFs, the potential slowdown of stablecoin inflows and the de-inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have emerged as significant factors that could cast a pall over the crypto market. However, the Federal Reserve's continued support through the overnight RRP facility may provide a safety net until the crypto market can find its own footing amid these macroeconomic shifts.

总之，虽然加密货币社区仍然对比特币 ETF 的每日资金流入着迷，但稳定币流入的潜在放缓和美国国债收益率曲线的去倒挂已成为可能给加密货币市场蒙上阴影的重要因素。然而，美联储通过隔夜 RRP 工具提供的持续支持可能会提供一个安全网，直到加密货币市场能够在这些宏观经济变化中找到自己的立足点。