比特币（BTC）现场ETF最初被称为加密行业的重大转变

许多人认为，这些投资工具将解锁大量的机构需求，将比特币推向新的高度。

The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs was initially heralded as a major development that would shift the crypto landscape. Many anticipated these investment vehicles to unlock substantial institutional demand, ultimately propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

比特币现场ETF的推出最初是作为一个重大发展的宣传，这将改变加密货币景观。许多人预计这些投资工具可以释放大量的机构需求，最终将比特币推向了新的历史高潮。

However, since January 20, 2024, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum, leading some to wonder if the market priced in perfection too soon.

但是，自2024年1月20日以来，比特币一直在努力保持向上的动力，使一些人怀疑市场价格是否过早。

Interestingly, examining historical market patterns may offer insights into Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has pointed to similarities between Bitcoin’s ETF performance and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) launched in 1999.

有趣的是，检查历史市场模式可能会提供对比特币当前轨迹的见解。分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）指出，比特币的ETF性能与1999年推出的NASDAQ-100 ETF（QQQ）之间的相似之处。

The QQQ ETF reached its peak 54 weeks after its inception, a timeline that aligns with Bitcoin’s peak 54 weeks post-ETF launch. This coincidence is remarkable, especially considering that this peak coincided with the U.S. presidential inauguration—a potential macroeconomic turning point.

QQQ ETF成立后54周达到了峰值，这一时间轴与ETF发射后54周的峰值保持一致。这一巧合是显着的，尤其是考虑到这个高峰与美国总统就职典礼相吻合，这是一个潜在的宏观经济转折点。

"I still think about the QQQ and BTC ETF comparison a lot, even though I keep wanting to see some type of divergence. But rather than diverge, they continue to present similarities. I see a lot of people screaming that it's the golden age of crypto but Bitcoin has basically done what I expected it to do. It's stalled out at the presidential inauguration after a 54-week bull market. The QQQ ETF also peaked 54 weeks after its launch in 1999," said the analyst.

“我仍然考虑QQQ和BTC ETF进行了很多比较，即使我一直想看到某种形式的差异。但是，他们没有继续呈现出相似之处。我看到很多人尖叫着，这是加密货币的黄金时代，但比特币基本上已经做到了我的预期，这是我在公牛上做出的基本上的校园。 1999年推出54周后。”分析师说。

Memecoin Mania Drains Liquidity from Bitcoin & ETFs

Memecoin Mania从比特币和ETF中流动流动性

A key issue in this cycle has been liquidity distribution. The emergence of memecoins has siphoned capital away from Bitcoin and other well-established assets.

这个周期中的一个关键问题是流动性分布。 Memecoins的出现使资本脱离了比特币和其他良好的资产。

Many retail investors were lured into believing in a “memecoin supercycle,” which ultimately saw most of these tokens collapse. This pattern closely resembles previous speculative bubbles, where hype-driven assets experience a brief period of outperformance before erasing gains.

许多散户投资者被引诱相信“纪念超级循环”，最终使这些令牌崩溃了。这种模式与以前的投机气泡相似，在炒作驱动的资产在擦除增益之前经历了短暂的表现。

Bitcoin dominance, which has climbed from 38% to 64%, showcases how capital is consolidating back into BTC. This trend suggests that investors are losing confidence in altcoins and prefer Bitcoin's relative stability.

比特币优势从38％攀升至64％，展示了资本如何巩固为BTC。这一趋势表明，投资者正在失去对山寨币的信心，并且更喜欢比特币的相对稳定性。

Furthermore, the role of ETFs in this cycle has also been a subject of debate. While they increase Bitcoin's accessibility, they also raise concerns about long-term decentralization and institutional control over supply.

此外，ETF在此周期中的作用也是争论的主题。尽管他们增加了比特币的可访问性，但他们还引起了人们对长期分散化和对供应机构控制的关注。

Echoes of the 70s? 'Left-Translated Cycle' Scenario for Bitcoin

70年代的回声？比特币的“左翻译周期”方案

Examining historical market cycles provides another interesting perspective. The 1970s, a period characterized by high inflation and economic uncertainty, saw two left-translated market cycles.

检查历史市场周期提供了另一个有趣的观点。 1970年代以高通货膨胀和经济不确定性为特征的时期看到了两个左骨化的市场周期。

A left-translated cycle occurs when a market peak arrives early, leading to a prolonged bearish condition.

当市场高峰及早到达时，会发生左翻译周期，从而导致持续的看跌状态。

If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we might see a sharp decline in Q1 2025, followed by a temporary relief rally in Q2/Q3. However, if BTC falls below $70,000 soon, it may confirm a left-translated cycle. A lower high in the subsequent rally could set the stage for a recession in 2026. Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to maintain support above $70,000, it might still reach new highs later in this cycle.

如果比特币遵循这种模式，我们可能会在Q1 2025中看到急剧下降，然后在Q2/Q3中进行暂时的缓解集会。但是，如果BTC很快下跌了70,000美元，则可以确认左翻译周期。随后的集会中，较低的高潮可能在2026年为衰退奠定了基础。相反，如果比特币设法维持超过70,000美元以上的支撑，那么在本周期后期，它仍可能达到新高点。

As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $86,034.03, with a 24-hour trading volume of $50,823,451,453. The price has dropped by 3.28% in the last 24 hours but gained 0.75% over the past week. With a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, its market capitalization stands at $1.7 trillion.

截至发稿时，比特币（BTC）的交易价格为86,034.03美元，交易量为50,823,451,453美元。在过去的24小时内，价格下跌了3.28％，但在过去一周中上涨了0.75％。其市值为2000万BTC，其市值为1.7万亿美元。