比特币（BTC）价格爆炸正在发生，因为全球M2货币供应扩张触发了近乎现行的集会

当宏观思想的影响者认为，“全球M2​​”货币供应的新扩张将触发比特币的近乎建筑集会，但老兵市场分析师警告说，这些数据支撑这些呼吁的数据比百老汇毫无用处。

Macro influencers are swirling bullish proclamations on X as they maintain that a fresh expansion in Global M2 will quickly lead to a rally in Bitcoin. However, a veteran market analyst is warning that the data underpinning those calls is a mirage.

宏观影响者对X的看涨宣言，因为他们坚持认为全球M2的新扩张将很快导致比特币集会。但是，一位资深市场分析师警告说，这些呼叫的数据是MIRAGE。

The latest wave of optimism began when Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal posted an updated overlay of Bitcoin versus Global M2—an aggregate of every major country’s broad money supply, converted into U.S. dollar terms—and told followers, “It is time, give or take a few days.”

最新的乐观浪潮始于真实视觉联合创始人拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）发布了比特币与全球M2的最新覆盖层，这是每个主要国家的广泛货币供应的总体，转换为美元的条款 - 并告诉追随者，“现在是时候，付出或花了几天。”

Another account also shared similar charts. One asserted that Bitcoin “continues to mirror Global M2 with its classic 12-week lag,” predicting “aggressive upside likely kicks off next week... $74.5 K looks like it was the bottom,” while another self-proclaimed crypto guru promised a new all-time high “within weeks.”

另一个帐户也共享了类似的图表。有人断言，比特币“继续以其经典的12周滞后来反映全球M2”，预测“下周激进的上升空间可能会在下周开始……$ 74.5 k $ 74.5 k看起来像是底部，而另一个自称为加密大师则承诺在几周内有一个新的历史高。”

Bitcoin Vs. M2: Is A Price Explosion Really Coming?

比特币与M2：价格爆炸真的来了吗？

The viral charts drew immediate fire from TXMC (@TXMCtrades). In a lengthy thread he argued that computing a daily or even weekly Global M2 series is “goofy and frankly a scam” because “the United States is only updating M2 on a weekly basis and all others are monthly.”

病毒图表引起了TXMC（@txmctrades）的立即射击。在一个漫长的话题中，他认为计算每日甚至每周的全球M2系列是“愚蠢的，坦率地说是一个骗局”，因为“美国只每周更新M2，所有其他人每月都有每月。”

“You are looking at basically 30 out of 31 days of FX fluctuations with a static once-monthly global aggregate multiplied behind it… China, USA, and Japan have even updated into March. The rest are still on February values during a time when the dollar has been tanking hard… You’re looking at an M2-weighted inverse dollar exchange rate 95% of the time. Be better at math!”

“您正在寻找31天的FX波动中的30天，每个月曾经是全球的整体总计乘以它……中国，美国和日本甚至已经更新到三月。其余的仍然是2月的价值，而在美元一直很努力的时候……您正在努力地寻找M2损失的Inversever dollrar汇率汇率，这是一个更好的时间。

TXMC noted that China now accounts for roughly 46 percent of the putative Global M2 and is “the ONLY major country whose broad money supply is above its post-covid peak in dollar terms,” a dynamic that “goes straight up” because Beijing is “trying to ease out of an ongoing multi-year debt deflation.” In contrast, U.S. M2 “is below its 2022 peak… and growing at the slowest pace since Bitcoin’s birth excluding 2022-24 when it was negative y/y.”

TXMC指出，中国现在大约占推定全球M2的46％，是“唯一一个以美元为美元的大型货币供应量高于其后高峰的主要国家，”这种动态“直接上升”，因为北京正在“试图轻松摆脱一个持续的多年债务屈曲，”相比之下，美国M2“低于其2022年的峰值……并以自比特币出生以来最慢的速度增长，不包括2022-24，当时为负y/y。”

Beyond the cadence mismatch, he blasted the practice of applying “random #-week offsets” to force a visual correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin. “These charts are over-fitted junk using extremely recent history as a thesis for why they should correlate,” he said, adding that while assets can be “directionally sympathetic on a monthly basis… the main critiques relate to presenting a daily/weekly metric using monthly data… AND using over-fitted offsets of that data to try and forecast the future for a content audience.”

除了节奏不匹配之外，他还爆炸了应用“随机＃周偏移”的实践，以迫使全球M2和比特币之间的视觉相关性。他说：“这些图表的垃圾是通过极为近期的历史作为论点，以此作为论点，”他补充说，虽然资产可以“每月在定向上是同情的……主要批评与使用每月的数据进行每日/每周的指标有关……并使用该数据过度构建数据和预测，以实现未来的数据和预测。

The broadside prompted a response from YouTuber Colin Talks Crypto (@ColinTCrypto), who claimed that key central banks do provide higher-frequency figures. “China M2 updates daily—not monthly,” he wrote, attaching what he said were current charts through April 17, 2025. “Japan’s M2 also updates daily… Since about half of your post relies on ‘China data being slow and outdated’… your post’s main argument weakens greatly at this point.”

宽边促使YouTuber Colin的回应是Crypto（@ColintCrypto），他声称主要的中央银行确实提供了更高的数字。他写道：“中国M2每天更新，而不是每月一次。”他所说的是直到2025年4月17日目前的图表。“日本的M2也每天都更新……因为您的帖子中约有一半依赖于'中国数据缓慢而过时'……您的帖子的主要论点在这一点上极大地削弱了。”

TXMC swiftly countered that assertion, maintaining “there is no daily M2″ and that any high-frequency series is merely “a projection of a 1-2 month old value using real-time FX values.” The sudden April “pop” in Global M2, he asserted, is nothing more than the dollar’s sharp slide translated mechanically into larger dollar-denominated money stocks.

TXMC迅速反驳说，维持“没有每日M2”的断言，并且任何高频序列都只是“使用实时FX值的1-2个月大价值的投影”。他断言，突然的四月“流行音乐”无非是美元的锋利滑梯机械地转化为以美元为基础的货币股票。

“Because Global M2 doesn’t actually exist, it is an abstraction of money that lives solely in a chart formula. It treats all broad aggregates around the world as the same pool of eligible capital and introduces a heap of noise via foreign exchange rates… this is how the sausage is actually made and it’s not sexy.”

“由于全球M2实际上并不存在，所以这是仅在图表公式中生活的资金的抽象。它将世界各地的所有广泛聚集物都视为相同的合格资本池，并通过汇率引入了一大堆噪音……这就是香肠的实际制造方式，而且不是性感的。”