比特幣（BTC）價格爆炸正在發生，因為全球M2貨幣供應擴張觸發了近乎現行的集會

當宏觀思想的影響者認為，“全球M2​​”貨幣供應的新擴張將觸發比特幣的近乎建築集會，但老兵市場分析師警告說，這些數據支撐這些呼籲的數據比百老匯毫無用處。

Macro influencers are swirling bullish proclamations on X as they maintain that a fresh expansion in Global M2 will quickly lead to a rally in Bitcoin. However, a veteran market analyst is warning that the data underpinning those calls is a mirage.

宏觀影響者對X的看漲宣言，因為他們堅持認為全球M2的新擴張將很快導致比特幣集會。但是，一位資深市場分析師警告說，這些呼叫的數據是MIRAGE。

The latest wave of optimism began when Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal posted an updated overlay of Bitcoin versus Global M2—an aggregate of every major country’s broad money supply, converted into U.S. dollar terms—and told followers, “It is time, give or take a few days.”

最新的樂觀浪潮始於真實視覺聯合創始人拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）發布了比特幣與全球M2的最新覆蓋層，這是每個主要國家的廣泛貨幣供應的總體，轉換為美元的條款 - 並告訴追隨者，“現在是時候，付出或花了幾天。”

Another account also shared similar charts. One asserted that Bitcoin “continues to mirror Global M2 with its classic 12-week lag,” predicting “aggressive upside likely kicks off next week... $74.5 K looks like it was the bottom,” while another self-proclaimed crypto guru promised a new all-time high “within weeks.”

另一個帳戶也共享了類似的圖表。有人斷言，比特幣“繼續以其經典的12週滯後來反映全球M2”，預測“下週激進的上升空間可能會在下週開始……$ 74.5 k $ 74.5 k看起來像是底部，而另一個自稱為加密大師則承諾在幾週內有一個新的歷史高。”

Bitcoin Vs. M2: Is A Price Explosion Really Coming?

比特幣與M2：價格爆炸真的來了嗎？

The viral charts drew immediate fire from TXMC (@TXMCtrades). In a lengthy thread he argued that computing a daily or even weekly Global M2 series is “goofy and frankly a scam” because “the United States is only updating M2 on a weekly basis and all others are monthly.”

病毒圖表引起了TXMC（@txmctrades）的立即射擊。在一個漫長的話題中，他認為計算每日甚至每週的全球M2系列是“愚蠢的，坦率地說是一個騙局”，因為“美國祇每週更新M2，所有其他人每月都有每月。”

“You are looking at basically 30 out of 31 days of FX fluctuations with a static once-monthly global aggregate multiplied behind it… China, USA, and Japan have even updated into March. The rest are still on February values during a time when the dollar has been tanking hard… You’re looking at an M2-weighted inverse dollar exchange rate 95% of the time. Be better at math!”

“您正在尋找31天的FX波動中的30天，每個月曾經是全球的整體總計乘以它……中國，美國和日本甚至已經更新到三月。其餘的仍然是2月的價值，而在美元一直很努力的時候……您正在努力地尋找M2損失的Inversever dollrar匯率匯率，這是一個更好的時間。

TXMC noted that China now accounts for roughly 46 percent of the putative Global M2 and is “the ONLY major country whose broad money supply is above its post-covid peak in dollar terms,” a dynamic that “goes straight up” because Beijing is “trying to ease out of an ongoing multi-year debt deflation.” In contrast, U.S. M2 “is below its 2022 peak… and growing at the slowest pace since Bitcoin’s birth excluding 2022-24 when it was negative y/y.”

TXMC指出，中國現在大約佔推定全球M2的46％，是“唯一一個以美元為美元的大型貨幣供應量高於其後高峰的主要國家，”這種動態“直接上升”，因為北京正在“試圖輕鬆擺脫一個持續的多年債務屈曲，”相比之下，美國M2“低於其2022年的峰值……並以自比特幣出生以來最慢的速度增長，不包括2022-24，當時為負y/y。”

Beyond the cadence mismatch, he blasted the practice of applying “random #-week offsets” to force a visual correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin. “These charts are over-fitted junk using extremely recent history as a thesis for why they should correlate,” he said, adding that while assets can be “directionally sympathetic on a monthly basis… the main critiques relate to presenting a daily/weekly metric using monthly data… AND using over-fitted offsets of that data to try and forecast the future for a content audience.”

除了節奏不匹配之外，他還爆炸了應用“隨機＃週偏移”的實踐，以迫使全球M2和比特幣之間的視覺相關性。他說：“這些圖表的垃圾是通過極為近期的歷史作為論點，以此作為論點，”他補充說，雖然資產可以“每月在定向上是同情的……主要批評與使用每月的數據進行每日/每週的指標有關……並使用該數據過度構建數據和預測，以實現未來的數據和預測。

The broadside prompted a response from YouTuber Colin Talks Crypto (@ColinTCrypto), who claimed that key central banks do provide higher-frequency figures. “China M2 updates daily—not monthly,” he wrote, attaching what he said were current charts through April 17, 2025. “Japan’s M2 also updates daily… Since about half of your post relies on ‘China data being slow and outdated’… your post’s main argument weakens greatly at this point.”

寬邊促使YouTuber Colin的回應是Crypto（@ColintCrypto），他聲稱主要的中央銀行確實提供了更高的數字。他寫道：“中國M2每天更新，而不是每月一次。”他所說的是直到2025年4月17日目前的圖表。 “日本的M2也每天都更新……因為您的帖子中約有一半依賴於'中國數據緩慢而過時'……您的帖子的主要論點在這一點上極大地削弱了。”

TXMC swiftly countered that assertion, maintaining “there is no daily M2″ and that any high-frequency series is merely “a projection of a 1-2 month old value using real-time FX values.” The sudden April “pop” in Global M2, he asserted, is nothing more than the dollar’s sharp slide translated mechanically into larger dollar-denominated money stocks.

TXMC迅速反駁說，維持“沒有每日M2”的斷言，並且任何高頻序列都只是“使用實時FX值的1-2個月大價值的投影”。他斷言，突然的四月“流行音樂”無非是美元的鋒利滑梯機械地轉化為以美元為基礎的貨幣股票。

“Because Global M2 doesn’t actually exist, it is an abstraction of money that lives solely in a chart formula. It treats all broad aggregates around the world as the same pool of eligible capital and introduces a heap of noise via foreign exchange rates… this is how the sausage is actually made and it’s not sexy.”

“由於全球M2實際上並不存在，所以這是僅在圖表公式中生活的資金的抽象。它將世界各地的所有廣泛聚集物都視為相同的合格資本池，並通過匯率引入了一大堆噪音……這就是香腸的實際製造方式，而且不是性感的。”