比特幣：全球經濟拔河比賽中不太可能的避難所

美國和中國之間的猛烈經濟拔河架架，最初是由特朗普政府的關稅點燃的

A fierce economic tug-of-war simmers between the United States and China, originally ignited by tariffs from the Trump administration, now casts a shadow over global markets and has turned Bitcoin into a cryptic barometer for change.

最初受到特朗普政府的關稅點燃的美國和中國之間的激烈的經濟拔河架sig滅現在，現在在全球市場上蒙上了陰影，並將比特幣變成了變革的神秘晴雨表。

The trade dispute has pushed central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, into a corner, leaving them no choice but to maintain higher interest rates in a bid to tame persistent inflation.

貿易糾紛使中央銀行，特別是美國美聯儲進入了一個角落，別無選擇，只能維持更高的利率，以使持續的通貨膨脹持續。

This shift has direct implications for traditional financial systems, which are now displaying signs of turbulence. As a result, investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, once viewed as a volatile asset, as a possible refuge.

這種轉變對傳統金融系統的直接影響，這些系統現在顯示出湍流的跡象。結果，投資者向比特幣表現出了新的利益，一旦被視為一種揮發性資產，可能是可能的避難所。

However, despite the drama unfolding in the crypto realm, with over 170,000 Bitcoins beginning their digital peregrinations across the network, signaling presaging volatility according to analysts, there’s a surprising twist.

然而，儘管加密貨幣領域中發生了戲劇性的發展，但超過170,000個比特幣開始了整個網絡上的數字分解，但根據分析師的說法，預示了波動性，但令人驚訝的轉折。

Where traditional markets like Dow Futures and S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness, Bitcoin’s dips seem "comparatively moderate," notes one report by Incrementum AG.

在Cremementum AG撰寫的一份報告指出，在Dow Futures和S＆P 500期貨等傳統市場表現出虛弱的情況下，比特幣的下降似乎“相對溫和”。

This observation could be signaling a new era for the digital currency’s stability in times of crisis, an aspect that has yet to be fully realized by stakeholders.

在危機時期，這種觀察結果可能是數字貨幣穩定的新時代，這一方面尚未完全由利益相關者實現。

An optimistic scenario is also posited by economist Timothy Peterson, who predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $138,000.

經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）也提出了一個樂觀的情況，他預測比特幣可能會飆升至138,000美元。

This scenario is driven by fibrous macroeconomic threads and sees a median growth of +31% three months post specific bond yield milestones, a stat that underscores Bitcoin’s price behavior.

這種情況是由纖維宏觀經濟螺紋驅動的，並且在特定債券產量里程碑後三個月的中位增長 +31％，這一統計數據強調了比特幣的價格行為。

However, behind the scenes, the U.S. appears to be deploying tariffs not merely as economic cudgels but also as tactical levers in a broader geopolitical maneuver against China.

但是，在幕後，美國似乎在部署關稅，不僅是經濟袋裝，而且在對中國的更廣泛的地緣政治動作中也是戰術槓桿。

Observers note that Washington’s initial hard-line stance has since given way to olive branch offerings—a move that is perhaps prompted by the precarious jump in U.S. Treasury yields.

觀察家指出，華盛頓最初的硬線立場從那以後就給了橄欖樹店的產品，這一舉動可能是由於美國財政部收益率不穩定的趨勢。

Coming in at 1.688% on Tuesday, this rise in yield is a critical factor as it usually leads to a slowdown in stock market gains.

週二的收益率上升是1.688％，這是一個關鍵因素，因為它通常會導致股票市場增長放緩。

Furthermore, despite the narrative of a bearish crypto market, predictions about a total wipeout could be premature.

此外，儘管敘述了看跌的加密市場，但關於全部消滅的預測可能還為時過早。

This is because historical trends indicate that a 200-week moving average acts as a significant support level for Bitcoin.

這是因為歷史趨勢表明，200週的移動平均線是比特幣的重要支持水平。

At least, this trend has held true since 2011.

至少，自2011年以來，這種趨勢已經實現。

Moreover, considering that 2023 marks the 16th year since the genesis block, and with an average halving cycle of about four years, there have been four halvings so far.

此外，考慮到2023年是自創世紀障礙以來的第16年，並且平均減半週期約為四年，到目前為止，已經有四個下半場。

This longevity suggests that perhaps Bitcoin is capable of withstanding market turmoil better than traditional assets.

這種壽命表明，比特幣能夠比傳統資產更好地承受市場動盪。

At least, that’s the view of Incrementum AG analysts, who point out that while Dow Futures and S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness, Bitcoin’s dips seem "comparatively moderate" in a new era for the digital currency’s stability in times of crisis.

至少，這就是增生AG分析師的觀點，他們指出，儘管Dow Futures和S＆P 500期貨在弱點上表現出弱點，但在危機時期數字貨幣穩定性的新時代，比特幣的下降似乎“相對溫和”。

Overall, the journey is complex, the stakes are high, and the outcomes, as always, are uncertain.

總體而言，旅程很複雜，賭注很高，並且與往常一樣的結果不確定。

However, one thing is clear: the crypto realm is adjusting, and misfortunes such as the Mantra token’s dramatic plummet serve as stark reminders of the risks involved.

但是，有一件事很明顯：加密貨幣領域正在調整，諸如咒語令牌的戲劇性下落之類的不幸使人想起所涉及的風險。

Yet, despite these setbacks, there is still room for hope.

然而，儘管有這些挫折，但仍然有希望的餘地。

If liquidity returns and Bitcoin’s correlation with the dollar dissolves, then perhaps a brighter horizon awaits.

如果流動性返回並與美元溶解的比特幣相關性，那麼也許是一個更明亮的地平線。

Only time will tell if Bitcoin will emerge from the ashes of monetary chaos as a phoenix heralding a new age of financial resilience or if it will simply be another ebb in the endless tide of speculative finance.

只有時間才能證明比特幣是否會從貨幣混亂的灰燼中出現，因為鳳凰城預示著新的財務彈性時代，還是只是在投機融資的無休止的潮流中又是另一個退潮。