比特币：全球经济拔河比赛中不太可能的避难所

美国和中国之间的猛烈经济拔河架架，最初是由特朗普政府的关税点燃的

A fierce economic tug-of-war simmers between the United States and China, originally ignited by tariffs from the Trump administration, now casts a shadow over global markets and has turned Bitcoin into a cryptic barometer for change.

最初受到特朗普政府的关税点燃的美国和中国之间的激烈的经济拔河架sig灭现在，现在在全球市场上蒙上了阴影，并将比特币变成了变革的神秘晴雨表。

The trade dispute has pushed central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, into a corner, leaving them no choice but to maintain higher interest rates in a bid to tame persistent inflation.

贸易纠纷使中央银行，特别是美国美联储进入了一个角落，别无选择，只能维持更高的利率，以使持续的通货膨胀持续。

This shift has direct implications for traditional financial systems, which are now displaying signs of turbulence. As a result, investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, once viewed as a volatile asset, as a possible refuge.

这种转变对传统金融系统的直接影响，这些系统现在显示出湍流的迹象。结果，投资者向比特币表现出了新的利益，一旦被视为一种挥发性资产，可能是可能的避难所。

However, despite the drama unfolding in the crypto realm, with over 170,000 Bitcoins beginning their digital peregrinations across the network, signaling presaging volatility according to analysts, there’s a surprising twist.

然而，尽管加密货币领域中发生了戏剧性的发展，但超过170,000个比特币开始了整个网络上的数字分解，但根据分析师的说法，预示了波动性，但令人惊讶的转折。

Where traditional markets like Dow Futures and S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness, Bitcoin’s dips seem "comparatively moderate," notes one report by Incrementum AG.

在Cremementum AG撰写的一份报告指出，在Dow Futures和S＆P 500期货等传统市场表现出虚弱的情况下，比特币的下降似乎“相对温和”。

This observation could be signaling a new era for the digital currency’s stability in times of crisis, an aspect that has yet to be fully realized by stakeholders.

在危机时期，这种观察结果可能是数字货币稳定的新时代，这一方面尚未完全由利益相关者实现。

An optimistic scenario is also posited by economist Timothy Peterson, who predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $138,000.

经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）也提出了一个乐观的情况，他预测比特币可能会飙升至138,000美元。

This scenario is driven by fibrous macroeconomic threads and sees a median growth of +31% three months post specific bond yield milestones, a stat that underscores Bitcoin’s price behavior.

这种情况是由纤维宏观经济螺纹驱动的，并且在特定债券产量里程碑后三个月的中位增长 +31％，这一统计数据强调了比特币的价格行为。

However, behind the scenes, the U.S. appears to be deploying tariffs not merely as economic cudgels but also as tactical levers in a broader geopolitical maneuver against China.

但是，在幕后，美国似乎在部署关税，不仅是经济袋装，而且在对中国的更广泛的地缘政治动作中也是战术杠杆。

Observers note that Washington’s initial hard-line stance has since given way to olive branch offerings—a move that is perhaps prompted by the precarious jump in U.S. Treasury yields.

观察家指出，华盛顿最初的硬线立场从那以后就给了橄榄树店的产品，这一举动可能是由于美国财政部收益率不稳定的趋势。

Coming in at 1.688% on Tuesday, this rise in yield is a critical factor as it usually leads to a slowdown in stock market gains.

周二的收益率上升是1.688％，这是一个关键因素，因为它通常会导致股票市场增长放缓。

Furthermore, despite the narrative of a bearish crypto market, predictions about a total wipeout could be premature.

此外，尽管叙述了看跌的加密市场，但关于全部消灭的预测可能还为时过早。

This is because historical trends indicate that a 200-week moving average acts as a significant support level for Bitcoin.

这是因为历史趋势表明，200周的移动平均线是比特币的重要支持水平。

At least, this trend has held true since 2011.

至少，自2011年以来，这种趋势已经实现。

Moreover, considering that 2023 marks the 16th year since the genesis block, and with an average halving cycle of about four years, there have been four halvings so far.

此外，考虑到2023年是自创世纪障碍以来的第16年，并且平均减半周期约为四年，到目前为止，已经有四个下半场。

This longevity suggests that perhaps Bitcoin is capable of withstanding market turmoil better than traditional assets.

这种寿命表明，比特币能够比传统资产更好地承受市场动荡。

At least, that’s the view of Incrementum AG analysts, who point out that while Dow Futures and S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness, Bitcoin’s dips seem "comparatively moderate" in a new era for the digital currency’s stability in times of crisis.

至少，这就是增生AG分析师的观点，他们指出，尽管Dow Futures和S＆P 500期货在弱点上表现出弱点，但在危机时期数字货币稳定性的新时代，比特币的下降似乎“相对温和”。

Overall, the journey is complex, the stakes are high, and the outcomes, as always, are uncertain.

总体而言，旅程很复杂，赌注很高，并且与往常一样的结果不确定。

However, one thing is clear: the crypto realm is adjusting, and misfortunes such as the Mantra token’s dramatic plummet serve as stark reminders of the risks involved.

但是，有一件事很明显：加密货币领域正在调整，诸如咒语令牌的戏剧性下落之类的不幸使人想起所涉及的风险。

Yet, despite these setbacks, there is still room for hope.

然而，尽管有这些挫折，但仍然有希望的余地。

If liquidity returns and Bitcoin’s correlation with the dollar dissolves, then perhaps a brighter horizon awaits.

如果流动性返回并与美元溶解的比特币相关性，那么也许是一个更明亮的地平线。

Only time will tell if Bitcoin will emerge from the ashes of monetary chaos as a phoenix heralding a new age of financial resilience or if it will simply be another ebb in the endless tide of speculative finance.

只有时间才能证明比特币是否会从货币混乱的灰烬中出现，因为凤凰城预示着新的财务弹性时代，还是只是在投机融资的无休止的潮流中又是另一个退潮。