比特幣（BTC）現場ETF最初被稱為加密行業的重大轉變

許多人認為，這些投資工具將解鎖大量的機構需求，將比特幣推向新的高度。

The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs was initially heralded as a major development that would shift the crypto landscape. Many anticipated these investment vehicles to unlock substantial institutional demand, ultimately propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

比特幣現場ETF的推出最初是作為一個重大發展的宣傳，這將改變加密貨幣景觀。許多人預計這些投資工具可以釋放大量的機構需求，最終將比特幣推向了新的歷史高潮。

However, since January 20, 2024, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum, leading some to wonder if the market priced in perfection too soon.

但是，自2024年1月20日以來，比特幣一直在努力保持向上的動力，使一些人懷疑市場價格是否過早。

Interestingly, examining historical market patterns may offer insights into Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has pointed to similarities between Bitcoin’s ETF performance and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) launched in 1999.

有趣的是，檢查歷史市場模式可能會提供對比特幣當前軌蹟的見解。分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）指出，比特幣的ETF性能與1999年推出的NASDAQ-100 ETF（QQQ）之間的相似之處。

The QQQ ETF reached its peak 54 weeks after its inception, a timeline that aligns with Bitcoin’s peak 54 weeks post-ETF launch. This coincidence is remarkable, especially considering that this peak coincided with the U.S. presidential inauguration—a potential macroeconomic turning point.

QQQ ETF成立後54周達到了峰值，這一時間軸與ETF發射後54週的峰值保持一致。這一巧合是顯著的，尤其是考慮到這個高峰與美國總統就職典禮相吻合，這是一個潛在的宏觀經濟轉折點。

"I still think about the QQQ and BTC ETF comparison a lot, even though I keep wanting to see some type of divergence. But rather than diverge, they continue to present similarities. I see a lot of people screaming that it's the golden age of crypto but Bitcoin has basically done what I expected it to do. It's stalled out at the presidential inauguration after a 54-week bull market. The QQQ ETF also peaked 54 weeks after its launch in 1999," said the analyst.

“即使我一直想看到某種類型的分歧，我仍然會經常考慮QQQ和BTC ETF。但是，他們沒有繼續呈現出色。我看到很多人在尖叫著，這是我期望在5月5日宣布的季節，但比特幣的黃金時代也是如此1999年。”分析師說。

Memecoin Mania Drains Liquidity from Bitcoin & ETFs

Memecoin Mania從比特幣和ETF中流動流動性

A key issue in this cycle has been liquidity distribution. The emergence of memecoins has siphoned capital away from Bitcoin and other well-established assets.

這個週期中的一個關鍵問題是流動性分佈。 Memecoins的出現使資本脫離了比特幣和其他良好的資產。

Many retail investors were lured into believing in a “memecoin supercycle,” which ultimately saw most of these tokens collapse. This pattern closely resembles previous speculative bubbles, where hype-driven assets experience a brief period of outperformance before erasing gains.

許多散戶投資者被引誘相信“紀念超級循環”，最終使這些令牌崩潰了。這種模式與以前的投機氣泡相似，在炒作驅動的資產在擦除增益之前經歷了短暫的表現。

Bitcoin dominance, which has climbed from 38% to 64%, showcases how capital is consolidating back into BTC. This trend suggests that investors are losing confidence in altcoins and prefer Bitcoin's relative stability.

比特幣優勢從38％攀升至64％，展示了資本如何鞏固為BTC。這一趨勢表明，投資者正在失去對山寨幣的信心，並且更喜歡比特幣的相對穩定性。

Furthermore, the role of ETFs in this cycle has also been a subject of debate. While they increase Bitcoin's accessibility, they also raise concerns about long-term decentralization and institutional control over supply.

此外，ETF在此週期中的作用也是爭論的主題。儘管他們增加了比特幣的可訪問性，但他們還引起了人們對長期分散化和對供應機構控制的關注。

Echoes of the 70s? 'Left-Translated Cycle' Scenario for Bitcoin

70年代的迴聲？比特幣的“左翻譯週期”方案

Examining historical market cycles provides another interesting perspective. The 1970s, a period characterized by high inflation and economic uncertainty, saw two left-translated market cycles.

檢查歷史市場週期提供了另一個有趣的觀點。 1970年代以高通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性為特徵的時期看到了兩個左骨化的市場週期。

A left-translated cycle occurs when a market peak arrives early, leading to a prolonged bearish condition.

當市場高峰及早到達時，會發生左翻譯週期，從而導致持續的看跌狀態。

If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we might see a sharp decline in Q1 2025, followed by a temporary relief rally in Q2/Q3. However, if BTC falls below $70,000 soon, it may confirm a left-translated cycle. A lower high in the subsequent rally could set the stage for a recession in 2026. Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to maintain support above $70,000, it might still reach new highs later in this cycle.

如果比特幣遵循這種模式，我們可能會在Q1 2025中看到急劇下降，然後在Q2/Q3中進行暫時的緩解集會。但是，如果BTC很快下跌了70,000美元，則可以確認左翻譯週期。隨後的集會中，較低的高潮可能在2026年為衰退奠定了基礎。相反，如果比特幣設法維持超過70,000美元以上的支撐，那麼在本週期後期，它仍可能達到新高點。

As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $86,034.03, with a 24-hour trading volume of $50,823,451,453. The price has dropped by 3.28% in the last 24 hours but gained 0.75% over the past week. With a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, its market capitalization stands at $1.7 trillion.

截至發稿時，比特幣（BTC）的交易價格為86,034.03美元，交易量為50,823,451,453美元。在過去的24小時內，價格下跌了3.28％，但在過去一周中上漲了0.75％。其市值為2000萬BTC，其市值為1.7萬億美元。