穩定幣流量萎縮、殖利率曲線反轉為加密市場帶來潛在風險

穩定幣和美國財政部殖利率曲線事實上的回檔可能會引發比特幣的市場波動。從歷史上看，殖利率曲線反轉預示著經濟衰退和股市風險厭惡情緒，可能會蔓延到加密貨幣市場。穩定幣作為加密貨幣市場資金流入的代表，在維持高價格方面比 ETF 更具影響力。然而，穩定幣流入的任何放緩都可能引發調整。此外，財政赤字擔憂和政治壓力可能導致降息，從而在美國大選前支持風險資產和加密貨幣。

Shrinking Stablecoin Flows and a De-inverting Yield Curve: Potential Headwinds for Crypto

穩定幣流量萎縮與殖利率曲線反轉：加密貨幣的潛在阻力

As the crypto community remains captivated by the daily inflows into U.S.-listed bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), astute market observers are casting their attention toward a more critical landscape: the realm of stablecoins and the intricate workings of the U.S. government bond market.

隨著加密貨幣社群仍然對每天流入美國上市的比特幣 (BTC) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 著迷，精明的市場觀察家正在將注意力轉向更關鍵的領域：穩定幣領域和美國複雜的運作方式。政府公債市場。

"Stablecoin inflows have been the backbone of strength for the crypto market," asserted Thomas Thielen, an analyst at crypto intelligence firm Messari. "While most have been fixated on the ETF inflows, stablecoin inflows have been a more substantial driver, underpinning the elevated crypto prices."

加密情報公司 Messari 的分析師 Thomas Thielen 表示：“穩定幣的流入一直是加密市場實力的支柱。” “雖然大多數人都關注 ETF 的流入，但穩定幣的流入是一個更重要的驅動因素，支撐了加密貨幣價格的上漲。”

"A slowdown in stablecoin inflows could trigger a significant correction," Thielen cautioned.

「穩定幣流入放緩可能會引發重大調整，」蒂倫警告。

Over the years, stablecoins, designed to maintain a stable value pegged to an external reference such as the U.S. dollar, have become indispensable in facilitating cryptocurrency purchases and fueling derivatives trading. Consequently, the supply of stablecoins is widely recognized as a reliable indicator of net capital inflows into the crypto market.

多年來，穩定幣旨在維持與美元等外部參考掛鉤的穩定價值，在促進加密貨幣購買和推動衍生性商品交易方面已成為不可或缺的一部分。因此，穩定幣的供應量被廣泛認為是加密貨幣市場淨資本流入的可靠指標。

Notably, the flow of capital into the crypto market via stablecoins has outpaced that of spot ETFs. Since the inception of spot ETFs in the U.S. on January 11, the combined market capitalization of the two leading stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), has surged by a remarkable $25.6 billion, reaching a record $143.8 billion. In contrast, spot ETFs have amassed over $12 billion since their Nasdaq debut, according to data meticulously tracked by 10x Research.

值得注意的是，透過穩定幣流入加密貨幣市場的資金流量已經超過了現貨 ETF。自 1 月 11 日美國推出現貨 ETF 以來，兩種領先的穩定幣 Tether (USDT) 和 USD Coin (USDC) 的總市值已大幅飆升 256 億美元，達到創紀錄的 1,438 億美元。相較之下，根據 10x Research 仔細追蹤的數據，現貨 ETF 自在納斯達克上市以來已累積了超過 120 億美元的資金。

A visual representation of the inflows into bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins since January 11 reveals that while ETF inflows have diminished in recent weeks, the supply of the top stablecoins has continued its upward trajectory, buoying prices within the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

自1 月11 日以來流入比特幣ETF 和穩定幣的直觀圖示顯示，雖然近幾週ETF 流入量有所減少，但頂級穩定幣的供應量仍在繼續呈上升趨勢，推動價格在60,000 美元至70,000 美元範圍內上漲。

Another potential source of volatility, according to Ilan Solot, co-head of digital assets at Marex Solutions, is the "de-inversion" of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

Marex Solutions 數位資產聯席主管 Ilan Solot 表示，另一個潛在的波動來源是美國公債殖利率曲線的「去倒掛」。

The yield curve, an essential indicator of the structure of interest rates, depicts the yield on bonds with varying terms to maturity. Conventionally, the curve exhibits an upward slope, reflecting investors' demand for a higher return for investing or lending money to the government over extended periods.

殖利率曲線是利率結構的重要指標，描繪了不同到期期限的債券的殖利率。通常，該曲線呈現向上的斜率，反映了投資者對長期投資或向政府貸款的更高回報的需求。

Approximately two years ago, the curve inverted, an occurrence where the yield on the two-year note surpassed that of the 10-year note, as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates.

大約兩年前，隨著聯準會大幅升息，曲線出現倒掛，兩年期公債殖利率超過了十年期公債。

Historically, the yield curve tends to dis-invert at the onset of economic recessions. Now, the curve is reverting to its normal shape, driven by a faster rise in the 20-year yield, also known as "bear steepening." At the time of writing, the spread between the 10- and two-year yields stood at -0.28 basis points, a level not seen since January. In other words, the curve is merely 28 bps shy of normalization.

從歷史上看，在經濟衰退開始時，殖利率曲線往往會反轉。現在，在 20 年期公債殖利率更快上升（也稱為「熊市陡化」）的推動下，該曲線正在恢復正常形狀。截至撰寫本文時，10 年期和兩年期公債殖利率之間的利差為-0.28 個基點，這是自 1 月以來從未見過的水平。換句話說，該曲線距離正常化僅差 28 個基點。

"Interpreting the curve is ever nuanced, but taking it at face value, this [bear steepening] could imply a waning confidence in either fiscal or monetary policy – or both. For instance, it could indicate that markets perceive an amplified risk of the Fed falling behind the curve or of borrowing becoming unhinged without a corresponding demand," Solot explained.

「對曲線的解釋是微妙的，但從表面上看，這種[熊市陡峭化]可能意味著對財政或貨幣政策——或兩者的信心減弱。例如，它可能表明市場認為聯準會的風險被放大落後於曲線或借貸在沒有相應需求的情況下變得精神錯亂，」索洛特解釋道。

"That's not a favorable environment for risk in general and, initially at least, should have an impact on the crypto market as well," Solot added, highlighting that a dip would present an opportunity for bitcoin to demonstrate its potential as a hedge against fiscal and monetary instability.

索洛特補充說：「總體而言，這並不是一個有利的風險環境，至少在最初階段，也應該對加密貨幣市場產生影響。」他強調，比特幣的下跌將為比特幣提供一個機會，展示其作為財政對沖工具的潛力。

Historically, de-inversions have coincided with the onset of economic recessions and a heightened aversion to risk in the stock market.

從歷史上看，去反轉往往與經濟衰退的爆發和股市風險厭惡情緒的加劇同時發生。

Phillip Gillespie, managing partner at U.K.-based hedge fund AWR Capital, believes that risk assets will ultimately find stability as long as the Federal Reserve continues to support the system through its overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) agreement facility.

英國對沖基金 AWR Capital 的管理合夥人 Phillip Gillespie 認為，只要聯準會繼續透過隔夜逆回購 (RRP) 協議工具支持該系統，風險資產最終就會穩定。

The overnight RRP is a monetary tool employed by the Fed to drain excess cash from the money market. Since early last year, the RRP facility has been drained, signifying that the once dormant cash is being redeployed, invigorating risk-taking in financial markets.

隔夜建議零售價是聯準會用來從貨幣市場排出多餘現金的貨幣工具。自去年初以來，RRP機制已被耗盡，這意味著曾經休眠的現金正在重新部署，從而激發了金融市場的風險承擔。

"The Fed's ongoing support of the market via the overnight reverse repo facility, coupled with discussions of rate cuts in light of ballooning fiscal deficits and government pressure to curb its financing costs, suggest that risk assets will maintain their support in the run-up to the U.S. elections," Gillespie stated.

「聯準會透過隔夜逆回購工具持續支持市場，加上考慮到財政赤字不斷膨脹和政府壓力抑制融資成本而進行降息討論，表明風險資產將在美國大選，」吉萊斯皮說。

In conclusion, while the crypto community remains enthralled by the daily flow of funds into bitcoin ETFs, the potential slowdown of stablecoin inflows and the de-inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have emerged as significant factors that could cast a pall over the crypto market. However, the Federal Reserve's continued support through the overnight RRP facility may provide a safety net until the crypto market can find its own footing amid these macroeconomic shifts.

總而言之，雖然加密貨幣社群仍然對比特幣 ETF 的每日資金流入著迷，但穩定幣流入的潛在放緩和美國國債殖利率曲線的去倒掛已成為可能為加密貨幣市場蒙上陰影的重要因素。然而，聯準會透過隔夜 RRP 工具提供的持續支持可能會提供一個安全網，直到加密貨幣市場能夠在這些宏觀經濟變化中找到自己的立足點。