勾股定理

格罗斯曼理论最初是在 2007 年超级碗掷硬币之前提出的。印第安纳波利斯小马队由一位名叫佩顿·曼宁的年轻四分卫领导。

The Grossman Theory was first conceived before the coin flip of the 2007 Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts were led by a young quarterback named Peyton Manning. Manning was the first pick of the NFL draft nine years earlier, the son of a former NFL star, and one of the faces of the league.

格罗斯曼理论最初是在 2007 年超级碗掷硬币之前提出的。印第安纳波利斯小马队由年轻的四分卫佩顿·曼宁领导。曼宁是九年前 NFL 选秀的状元秀，是前 NFL 球星的儿子，也是联盟的面孔之一。

The Chicago Bears’ starting quarterback was Rex Grossman, a no-named backup quarterback with a handful of starts, a lousy completion percentage, and average at best.

芝加哥熊队的首发四分卫是雷克斯·格罗斯曼（Rex Grossman），他是一名无名的替补四分卫，首发次数很少，完成率很低，充其量也只是平均水平。

I thought to myself, in a world in which only names like Staubach, Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman have hoisted the Championship trophy – how can the name Rex Grossman possibly be added to that list?

我心想，在一个只有施陶巴赫、布拉德肖、蒙大拿和艾克曼这样的名字举起冠军奖杯的世界里——雷克斯·格罗斯曼这个名字怎么可能被添加到这个名单中呢？

The answer was – it couldn’t.

答案是——不能。

Peyton Manning would go on to win the game while finishing his 18-year career with two Super Bowls, five MVPs, and fourteen Pro-Bowl selections.

佩顿·曼宁最终赢得了这场比赛，并以两次超级碗冠军、五次 MVP 和 14 次入选职业碗的成绩结束了他 18 年的职业生涯。

Rex Grossman would be replaced as the starter the following season by Kyle Orton and never heard from again.

下个赛季，雷克斯·格罗斯曼的首发位置被凯尔·奥顿取代，从此杳无音信。

Eighteen years later, that theory was expanded upon, developed, and eventually proven true by science using a mathematical equation that I am calling – The Pythagrossmean Theorem.

十八年后，该理论得到了扩展、发展，并最终通过科学使用我称之为“勾股定理”的数学方程证明是正确的。

The equation, Y = X-r (h)/1.25f +10d looks complicated. But like Einstein or Newton, it easily explains why this year’s NFL Playoffs have progressed as math and science knew it would.

方程 Y = Xr (h)/1.25f +10d 看起来很复杂。但就像爱因斯坦或牛顿一样，它很容易解释为什么今年的 NFL 季后赛会像数学和科学所知道的那样取得进展。

I’ll explain.

我会解释一下。

The Y component simply represents the Super Bowl winning team. And the equation only works after the playoff teams have been decided. Math and science can explain a lot of life’s mysteries, but no one can predict Bo Nix leading the Broncos to the playoffs, Baker Mayfield balling out, or the Vikings winning 14 games with Sam Darnold.

Y 分量仅代表超级碗获胜球队。而且这个等式只有在季后赛球队确定之后才有效。数学和科学可以解释生活中的许多奥秘，但没有人能预测博·尼克斯会带领野马队进入季后赛，贝克·梅菲尔德会出局，或者维京人队会在萨姆·达诺德的带领下赢得 14 场比赛。

X represents the eventual Super Bowl winning quarterback. The John Elway’s, Pat Mahomes’, and Tom Brady’s of the world. Destined to lead their teams to the championship not just by fate, but by math and science.

X 代表最终赢得超级碗的四分卫。世界上的约翰·埃尔维、帕特·马霍姆斯和汤姆·布雷迪。注定带领他们的球队夺得冠军不仅仅是命运，更是数学和科学。

But it’s more complex than that.

但实际情况比这更复杂。

X-r. The small r stands for rookie. In the history of Super Bowls, a rookie has never led his team to a championship. Ben Roethlisberger came close when he won the title as a 23-year-old, but it was his second year. Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner, Joe Namath, and Brady came close as well.

Xr。小写的 r 代表新秀。在超级碗历史上，从未有新秀带领球队夺得过冠军。本·罗斯利斯伯格 (Ben Roethlisberger) 在 23 岁时就曾一度接近夺冠，但那是他的第二年。拉塞尔·威尔逊、库尔特·华纳、乔·纳马斯和布雷迪也很接近。

In fact, no rookie has ever started a game in the Super Bowl.

事实上，还没有新秀在超级碗比赛中首发过。

That means that Jayden Daniels looks to be in trouble next week. And that Bo Nix – never stood a chance.

这意味着杰登·丹尼尔斯下周看起来会遇到麻烦。而那个波·尼克斯——从来没有机会。

X-r(h). The little (h) is for the Hall of Fame. With very few exceptions, the winning quarterbacks that have played in the Super Bowl are either in the Hall of Fame or look to be when their careers are over. Some are obvious, like Brady, Mahomes, and Roethlisberger. Some may take a bit, like Wilson, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco. And others are still too young to judge.

Xr(h)。小（h）代表名人堂。除了极少数例外，参加过超级碗比赛的获胜四分卫要么已进入名人堂，要么在职业生涯结束时有望进入名人堂。有些是显而易见的，比如布雷迪、马霍姆斯和罗斯利斯伯格。有些人可能需要一点时间，比如 Wilson、Matt Stafford 和 Joe Flacco。而其他人还太年轻，无法做出判断。

Don’t you see. Sam Darnold was never going to lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl victory. Baker Mayfield wasn’t going to magically go on a run. The equation has been spot on since day one. Kirk Cousins, Gino Smith, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill were never winning a title.

你没看到吗。萨姆·达诺德永远不会带领维京人队赢得超级碗胜利。贝克·梅菲尔德不会神奇地跑步。这个等式从第一天起就一直正确。柯克·考辛斯、吉诺·史密斯、丹尼尔·琼斯和瑞安·坦尼希尔从未赢得过冠军。

But what about Nick Foles. The journeyman, backup Philadelphia Eagles quarterback that took over for the injured Carson Wentz in 2013 and led the team all the way to the title.

但尼克·福尔斯呢？这位熟练的费城老鹰队替补四分卫，在 2013 年接替受伤的卡森·温茨 (Carson Wentz) 并带领球队一路夺得冠军。

That’s where the equation gets interesting. Foles was an obvious outlier. A deviation from the data set.

这就是等式变得有趣的地方。福尔斯是一个明显的异常值。与数据集的偏差。

That is why the (f) in the equation stands for Foles. Dividing the numerator by (f) removes the Foles and calculates the IQR (interquartile range) in the process. It’s all very advanced stuff, math you probably didn’t take in high school or college, so don’t worry about it.

这就是为什么等式中的 (f) 代表福尔斯 (Foles)。分子除以 (f) 即可去除 Foles，并在此过程中计算 IQR（四分位距）。这些都是非常高级的东西，你可能在高中或大学时没有学过数学，所以不用担心。

The 1.25f. Well, if 1f represents Nick Foles, .25f represents Joe Flacco, just in case I’m wrong about him eventually making it into the Hall of Fame.

1.25f。好吧，如果 1f 代表 Nick Foles，那么 0.25f 代表 Joe Flacco，以防万一我对他最终进入名人堂的看法是错误的。

1.25f + 10d. Using (f) to eliminate the Nick Foles obstruction was genius, but it took a team of MIT graduates and a few Cal Tech interns to help solve the Dilfer Dilemma.

1.25f + 10d。使用 (f) 来消除尼克·福尔斯的障碍是天才，但需要一个由麻省理工学院毕业生和一些加州理工学院实习生组成的团队来帮助解决迪尔弗困境。

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl quarterbacking the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. By all accounts, Dilfer is the worst quarterback to ever win a title. At first, our team just accepted that the Dilfer Dilemma (DD) would continue on as one of earth’s unsolved mysteries. Like the Origin of Life, or the hiring of Josh McDaniels.

2000 年巴尔的摩乌鸦队四分卫特伦特·迪尔弗 (Trent Dilfer) 赢得了超级碗冠军。从各方面来看，迪尔弗是有史以来夺冠最差的四分卫。起初，我们的团队只是接受迪尔弗困境（DD）将继续成为地球上未解之谜之一。比如《生命的起源》，或者聘用乔什·麦克丹尼尔斯。

The answer was simple. Defense (d) wins Championships

答案很简单。防守（d）赢得冠军