勾股定理

格羅斯曼理論最初是在 2007 年超級盃擲硬幣之前提出的。印第安納波利斯小馬隊由一位名叫佩頓曼寧的年輕四分衛領導。

The Grossman Theory was first conceived before the coin flip of the 2007 Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts were led by a young quarterback named Peyton Manning. Manning was the first pick of the NFL draft nine years earlier, the son of a former NFL star, and one of the faces of the league.

格羅斯曼理論最初是在 2007 年超級盃擲硬幣之前提出的。印第安納波利斯小馬隊由年輕的四分衛佩頓曼寧領導。曼寧是九年前 NFL 選秀的狀元秀，是前 NFL 球星的兒子，也是聯盟的面孔之一。

The Chicago Bears’ starting quarterback was Rex Grossman, a no-named backup quarterback with a handful of starts, a lousy completion percentage, and average at best.

芝加哥熊隊的先發四分衛是雷克斯·格羅斯曼（Rex Grossman），他是一名無名的替補四分衛，首發次數很少，完成率很低，充其量也只是平均水平。

I thought to myself, in a world in which only names like Staubach, Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman have hoisted the Championship trophy – how can the name Rex Grossman possibly be added to that list?

我心想，在一個只有施陶巴赫、布拉德肖、蒙大拿和艾克曼這樣的名字舉起冠軍獎杯的世界裡——雷克斯·格羅斯曼這個名字怎麼可能被添加到這個名單中呢？

The answer was – it couldn’t.

答案是——不能。

Peyton Manning would go on to win the game while finishing his 18-year career with two Super Bowls, five MVPs, and fourteen Pro-Bowl selections.

佩頓曼寧最終贏得了這場比賽，並以兩次超級碗冠軍、五次 MVP 和 14 次入選職業碗的成績結束了他 18 年的職業生涯。

Rex Grossman would be replaced as the starter the following season by Kyle Orton and never heard from again.

下個賽季，雷克斯·格羅斯曼的先發位置被凱爾·奧頓取代，從此杳無音信。

Eighteen years later, that theory was expanded upon, developed, and eventually proven true by science using a mathematical equation that I am calling – The Pythagrossmean Theorem.

十八年後，理論得到了擴展、發展，並最終透過科學使用我稱之為「勾股定理」的數學方程式證明是正確的。

The equation, Y = X-r (h)/1.25f +10d looks complicated. But like Einstein or Newton, it easily explains why this year’s NFL Playoffs have progressed as math and science knew it would.

方程式 Y = Xr (h)/1.25f +10d 看起來很複雜。但就像愛因斯坦或牛頓一樣，它很容易解釋為什麼今年的 NFL 季後賽會像數學和科學所知道的那樣取得進展。

I’ll explain.

我會解釋一下。

The Y component simply represents the Super Bowl winning team. And the equation only works after the playoff teams have been decided. Math and science can explain a lot of life’s mysteries, but no one can predict Bo Nix leading the Broncos to the playoffs, Baker Mayfield balling out, or the Vikings winning 14 games with Sam Darnold.

Y 分量僅代表超級盃獲勝球隊。而這個等式只有在季後賽球隊確定之後才有效。數學和科學可以解釋生活中的許多奧秘，但沒有人能預測博·尼克斯會帶領野馬隊進入季後賽，貝克·梅菲爾德會出局，或者維京人隊會在薩姆·達諾德的帶領下贏得14 場比賽。

X represents the eventual Super Bowl winning quarterback. The John Elway’s, Pat Mahomes’, and Tom Brady’s of the world. Destined to lead their teams to the championship not just by fate, but by math and science.

X 代表最終贏得超級盃的四分衛。世界上的約翰·埃爾維、帕特·馬霍姆斯和湯姆·布雷迪。注定帶領他們的球隊奪冠不僅是命運，更是數學和科學。

But it’s more complex than that.

但實際情況比這更複雜。

X-r. The small r stands for rookie. In the history of Super Bowls, a rookie has never led his team to a championship. Ben Roethlisberger came close when he won the title as a 23-year-old, but it was his second year. Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner, Joe Namath, and Brady came close as well.

Xr。小寫的 r 代表新秀。在超級盃歷史上，從未有新秀帶領球隊奪冠。本·羅斯利斯伯格 (Ben Roethlisberger) 在 23 歲時就曾一度接近奪冠，但那是他的第二年。拉塞爾威爾遜、庫爾特華納、喬納馬斯和布雷迪也很接近。

In fact, no rookie has ever started a game in the Super Bowl.

事實上，還沒有新秀在超級盃比賽中首發過。

That means that Jayden Daniels looks to be in trouble next week. And that Bo Nix – never stood a chance.

這意味著傑登·丹尼爾斯下週看起來會遇到麻煩。而那個波·尼克斯——從來沒有機會。

X-r(h). The little (h) is for the Hall of Fame. With very few exceptions, the winning quarterbacks that have played in the Super Bowl are either in the Hall of Fame or look to be when their careers are over. Some are obvious, like Brady, Mahomes, and Roethlisberger. Some may take a bit, like Wilson, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco. And others are still too young to judge.

Xr(h)。小（h）代表名人堂。除了極少數例外，參加超級盃比賽的獲勝四分衛要么已進入名人堂，要么在職業生涯結束時有望進入名人堂。有些是顯而易見的，例如布雷迪、馬霍姆斯和羅斯利斯伯格。有些人可能需要一點時間，例如 Wilson、Matt Stafford 和 Joe Flacco。而其他人還太年輕，無法做出判斷。

Don’t you see. Sam Darnold was never going to lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl victory. Baker Mayfield wasn’t going to magically go on a run. The equation has been spot on since day one. Kirk Cousins, Gino Smith, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill were never winning a title.

你沒看到嗎。薩姆·達諾德永遠不會帶領維京人隊贏得超級碗勝利。貝克·梅菲爾德不會神奇地跑步。這個等式從第一天起就一直正確。柯克·考辛斯、吉諾·史密斯、丹尼爾·瓊斯和瑞安·坦尼希爾從未贏得冠軍。

But what about Nick Foles. The journeyman, backup Philadelphia Eagles quarterback that took over for the injured Carson Wentz in 2013 and led the team all the way to the title.

但尼克·福爾斯呢？這位熟練的費城老鷹隊替補四分衛，在 2013 年接替受傷的卡森溫茨 (Carson Wentz) 並帶領球隊一路奪冠。

That’s where the equation gets interesting. Foles was an obvious outlier. A deviation from the data set.

這就是等式變得有趣的地方。福爾斯是一個明顯的異常值。與資料集的偏差。

That is why the (f) in the equation stands for Foles. Dividing the numerator by (f) removes the Foles and calculates the IQR (interquartile range) in the process. It’s all very advanced stuff, math you probably didn’t take in high school or college, so don’t worry about it.

這就是為什麼等式中的 (f) 代表福爾斯 (Foles)。分子除以 (f) 即可移除 Foles，並在此過程中計算 IQR（四分位數間距）。這些都是非常高級的東西，你可能在高中或大學時沒有學過數學，所以不用擔心。

The 1.25f. Well, if 1f represents Nick Foles, .25f represents Joe Flacco, just in case I’m wrong about him eventually making it into the Hall of Fame.

1.25f。好吧，如果 1f 代表 Nick Foles，那麼 0.25f 代表 Joe Flacco，以防萬一我對他最終進入名人堂的看法是錯誤的。

1.25f + 10d. Using (f) to eliminate the Nick Foles obstruction was genius, but it took a team of MIT graduates and a few Cal Tech interns to help solve the Dilfer Dilemma.

1.25f + 10d。使用 (f) 來消除尼克·福爾斯的障礙是天才，但需要一個由麻省理工學院畢業生和一些加州理工學院實習生組成的團隊來幫助解決迪爾弗困境。

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl quarterbacking the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. By all accounts, Dilfer is the worst quarterback to ever win a title. At first, our team just accepted that the Dilfer Dilemma (DD) would continue on as one of earth’s unsolved mysteries. Like the Origin of Life, or the hiring of Josh McDaniels.

2000 年巴爾的摩烏鴉隊四分衛特倫特·迪爾弗 (Trent Dilfer) 贏得了超級碗冠軍。從各方面來看，迪爾弗是有史以來奪冠最差的四分衛。起初，我們的團隊只是接受迪爾弗困境（DD）將繼續成為地球上未解之謎之一。例如《生命的起源》，或是聘用喬許麥克丹尼爾斯。

The answer was simple. Defense (d) wins Championships

答案很簡單。防守（d）贏得冠軍