The Pythagrossmean Theorem

The Grossman Theory was first hypothesized prior to the coin flip of the 2007 Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts were led by a young quarterback by the name of Peyton Manning.

The Grossman Theory was first conceived before the coin flip of the 2007 Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts were led by a young quarterback named Peyton Manning. Manning was the first pick of the NFL draft nine years earlier, the son of a former NFL star, and one of the faces of the league.

The Chicago Bears’ starting quarterback was Rex Grossman, a no-named backup quarterback with a handful of starts, a lousy completion percentage, and average at best.

I thought to myself, in a world in which only names like Staubach, Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman have hoisted the Championship trophy – how can the name Rex Grossman possibly be added to that list?

The answer was – it couldn’t.

Peyton Manning would go on to win the game while finishing his 18-year career with two Super Bowls, five MVPs, and fourteen Pro-Bowl selections.

Rex Grossman would be replaced as the starter the following season by Kyle Orton and never heard from again.

Eighteen years later, that theory was expanded upon, developed, and eventually proven true by science using a mathematical equation that I am calling – The Pythagrossmean Theorem.

The equation, Y = X-r (h)/1.25f +10d looks complicated. But like Einstein or Newton, it easily explains why this year’s NFL Playoffs have progressed as math and science knew it would.

I’ll explain.

The Y component simply represents the Super Bowl winning team. And the equation only works after the playoff teams have been decided. Math and science can explain a lot of life’s mysteries, but no one can predict Bo Nix leading the Broncos to the playoffs, Baker Mayfield balling out, or the Vikings winning 14 games with Sam Darnold.

X represents the eventual Super Bowl winning quarterback. The John Elway’s, Pat Mahomes’, and Tom Brady’s of the world. Destined to lead their teams to the championship not just by fate, but by math and science.

But it’s more complex than that.

X-r. The small r stands for rookie. In the history of Super Bowls, a rookie has never led his team to a championship. Ben Roethlisberger came close when he won the title as a 23-year-old, but it was his second year. Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner, Joe Namath, and Brady came close as well.

In fact, no rookie has ever started a game in the Super Bowl.

That means that Jayden Daniels looks to be in trouble next week. And that Bo Nix – never stood a chance.

X-r(h). The little (h) is for the Hall of Fame. With very few exceptions, the winning quarterbacks that have played in the Super Bowl are either in the Hall of Fame or look to be when their careers are over. Some are obvious, like Brady, Mahomes, and Roethlisberger. Some may take a bit, like Wilson, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco. And others are still too young to judge.

Don’t you see. Sam Darnold was never going to lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl victory. Baker Mayfield wasn’t going to magically go on a run. The equation has been spot on since day one. Kirk Cousins, Gino Smith, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill were never winning a title.

But what about Nick Foles. The journeyman, backup Philadelphia Eagles quarterback that took over for the injured Carson Wentz in 2013 and led the team all the way to the title.

That’s where the equation gets interesting. Foles was an obvious outlier. A deviation from the data set.

That is why the (f) in the equation stands for Foles. Dividing the numerator by (f) removes the Foles and calculates the IQR (interquartile range) in the process. It’s all very advanced stuff, math you probably didn’t take in high school or college, so don’t worry about it.

The 1.25f. Well, if 1f represents Nick Foles, .25f represents Joe Flacco, just in case I’m wrong about him eventually making it into the Hall of Fame.

1.25f + 10d. Using (f) to eliminate the Nick Foles obstruction was genius, but it took a team of MIT graduates and a few Cal Tech interns to help solve the Dilfer Dilemma.

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl quarterbacking the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. By all accounts, Dilfer is the worst quarterback to ever win a title. At first, our team just accepted that the Dilfer Dilemma (DD) would continue on as one of earth’s unsolved mysteries. Like the Origin of Life, or the hiring of Josh McDaniels.

The answer was simple. Defense (d) wins Championships