随着比特币 (BTC) 飙升至历史新高，MicroStrategy (MSTR) 股价暴跌 16%

MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) 昨日股价大幅下跌，盘中暴跌超过 20%，最终收盘下跌 16.2%。

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock price experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, dropping over 20% during intraday trading before closing down 16.2%. This significant drop occurred even as Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high, just shy of $100,000. Despite the setback, MSTR stock remains up an impressive 479% year-to-date.

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) 股价周三大幅下跌，盘中下跌超过 20%，最终收盘下跌 16.2%。尽管比特币 (BTC) 飙升至历史新高，略低于 10 万美元，但这种大幅下跌还是发生了。尽管遭遇挫折，MSTR 股价今年迄今仍上涨了 479%，令人印象深刻。

The stock’s tumble follows remarks from Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, who expressed concerns about MicroStrategy’s valuation relative to Bitcoin fundamentals.

Citron Research 创始人 Andrew Left 发表言论后，该股暴跌，他对 MicroStrategy 相对于比特币基本面的估值表示担忧。

“Now, with Bitcoin investing easier than ever (ETFs, COIN, HOOD), MSTR’s volume has completely detached from BTC fundamentals,” Left stated. “While Citron remains bullish on Bitcoin, we’ve hedged with a short MSTR position. Much respect to Michael Saylor, but even he must know MSTR is overheated.”

“现在，随着比特币投资比以往任何时候都更容易（ETF、COIN、HOOD），MSTR 的交易量已经完全脱离了 BTC 基本面，”Left 表示。 “虽然 Citron 仍然看好比特币，但我们已经通过 MSTR 空头头寸进行对冲。非常尊重 Michael Saylor，但即使是他也必须知道 MSTR 已经过热了。”

Is MicroStrategy Really Overvalued?

MicroStrategy 真的被高估了吗？

Contrasting Left’s bearish outlook, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, offered a robust defense of MicroStrategy’s valuation. In an analysis shared on Medium, Edwards argued that the company’s current market capitalization and premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) are justified under certain conditions.

与 Left 的悲观前景形成鲜明对比的是，加密货币对冲基金 Capriole Investments 的创始人兼首席执行官 Charles Edwards 为 MicroStrategy 的估值提供了强有力的辩护。在 Medium 上分享的一份分析中，爱德华兹认为，在某些条件下，该公司当前的市值及其比特币净资产价值（NAV）的溢价是合理的。

“Everyone thinks MicroStrategy is overvalued. It’s not,” Edwards stated. He suggested that if the current Bitcoin cycle mirrors the previous one—even under less favorable conditions—and if Saylor continues to aggressively acquire Bitcoin, then MicroStrategy has substantial growth potential. “Saylor needs to buy Bitcoin more aggressively the wider their NAV premium is. The 21/21 plan won’t do anymore as the market has already priced it in,” he noted.

“每个人都认为 MicroStrategy 被高估了。事实并非如此，”爱德华兹说道。他表示，如果当前的比特币周期与之前的周期一致——即使是在不太有利的条件下——并且如果 Saylor 继续积极收购比特币，那么 MicroStrategy 就有巨大的增长潜力。 “资产净值溢价越大，塞勒就需要更积极地购买比特币。 21/21 计划将不再有效，因为市场已经消化了这一点，”他指出。

Edwards emphasized the scale of recent capital raises, highlighting that “Saylor’s raised $9.6 billion in the last nine days alone.” He contended that with Bitcoin’s market capitalization poised to exceed $2 trillion, there’s a significant audience of bond traders who cannot directly access Bitcoin due to investment mandates. “The US bond market is $50 trillion—more than 25 times the size of Bitcoin. Today, MSTR is one of the only vehicles that gives bond traders exposure to Bitcoin,” Edwards explained. He added that MicroStrategy’s bond issues are “constantly oversubscribed,” displaying the strong demand for the MSTR stock.

Edwards 强调了近期融资规模，并强调“Saylor 仅在过去 9 天就筹集了 96 亿美元。”他认为，随着比特币的市值有望超过 2 万亿美元，大量债券交易员由于投资规定而无法直接接触比特币。 “美国债券市场规模达 50 万亿美元，是比特币规模的 25 倍多。如今，MSTR 是唯一能让债券交易员接触比特币的工具之一。”Edwards 解释道。他补充说，MicroStrategy 的债券发行“持续超额认购”，显示出对 MSTR 股票的强劲需求。

Addressing potential skepticism about his projections, Edwards clarified that his analysis is based on specific assumptions. “If you think Bitcoin is going to $200,000, and Saylor buys $40 billion more Bitcoin, then it can be considered ‘fairly’ priced today over the short term,” he said. However, he acknowledged that this scenario requires Saylor to be “much more aggressive than currently planned” in purchasing Bitcoin and that “there are many risks.”

针对对其预测的潜在怀疑，爱德华兹澄清说，他的分析是基于特定的假设。 “如果你认为比特币将达到 20 万美元，而 Saylor 又购买了 400 亿美元的比特币，那么短期内它的价格可以被认为是‘合理’的，”他说。然而，他承认，这种情况要求塞勒在购买比特币时“比目前计划更加积极”，并且“存在很多风险”。

Edwards also cautioned investors about the volatility of MicroStrategy’s NAV premium. “The NAV premia for MSTR fluctuates widely and aggressively. Don’t expect it to be stable with Bitcoin,” he warned. He stressed that his analysis is a “scenario analysis” and should not be used to predict daily returns, especially with speculative Bitcoin price targets like $1 million.

Edwards 还提醒投资者注意 MicroStrategy 资产净值溢价的波动性。 “MSTR 的资产净值溢价波动广泛且剧烈。不要指望比特币会稳定，”他警告说。他强调，他的分析是“情景分析”，不应该用来预测每日回报，特别是对于像 100 万美元这样的投机性比特币价格目标。

Concluding his insights, Edwards underscored the potential impact of MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin accumulation on the market. “Saylor needs to keep busy over the next year to actively close the premium by raising a lot more capital, but provided he does, there’s potential for MSTR equity yet,” he asserted. “Either way, we have a massive Bitcoin buyer in the market that is about to go into overdrive.”

Edwards 在总结他的见解时强调了 MicroStrategy 持续积累比特币对市场的潜在影响。 “塞勒需要在明年继续忙碌，通过筹集更多资金来积极关闭溢价，但只要他这样做，MSTR 股权就有潜力，”他断言。 “无论哪种方式，我们市场上都有一个巨大的比特币买家，他们即将进入超速状态。”

At press time, MSTR stock traded at $395.89 pre-market.

截至发稿时，MSTR 股票盘前交易价格为 395.89 美元。