隨著比特幣 (BTC) 飆升至歷史新高，MicroStrategy (MSTR) 股價暴跌 16%

MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) 昨天股價大幅下跌，盤中暴跌超過 20%，最終收盤下跌 16.2%。

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock price experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, dropping over 20% during intraday trading before closing down 16.2%. This significant drop occurred even as Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high, just shy of $100,000. Despite the setback, MSTR stock remains up an impressive 479% year-to-date.

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) 股價週三大幅下跌，盤中下跌超過 20%，最終收盤下跌 16.2%。儘管比特幣 (BTC) 飆升至新的歷史高點，略低於 10 萬美元，但這種大幅下跌還是發生了。儘管遭遇挫折，MSTR 股價今年迄今仍上漲了 479%，令人印象深刻。

The stock’s tumble follows remarks from Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, who expressed concerns about MicroStrategy’s valuation relative to Bitcoin fundamentals.

Citron Research 創辦人 Andrew Left 發表言論後，該股暴跌，他對 MicroStrategy 相對於比特幣基本面的估值表示擔憂。

“Now, with Bitcoin investing easier than ever (ETFs, COIN, HOOD), MSTR’s volume has completely detached from BTC fundamentals,” Left stated. “While Citron remains bullish on Bitcoin, we’ve hedged with a short MSTR position. Much respect to Michael Saylor, but even he must know MSTR is overheated.”

「現在，隨著比特幣投資比以往任何時候都更容易（ETF、COIN、HOOD），MSTR 的交易量已經完全脫離了 BTC 基本面，」Left 表示。 「雖然 Citron 仍然看好比特幣，但我們已經透過 MSTR 空頭部位進行對沖。非常尊重 Michael Saylor，但即使是他也必須知道 MSTR 已經過熱了。

Is MicroStrategy Really Overvalued?

MicroStrategy 真的被高估了嗎？

Contrasting Left’s bearish outlook, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, offered a robust defense of MicroStrategy’s valuation. In an analysis shared on Medium, Edwards argued that the company’s current market capitalization and premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) are justified under certain conditions.

與 Left 的悲觀前景形成鮮明對比的是，加密貨幣對沖基金 Capriole Investments 的創始人兼首席執行官 Charles Edwards 為 MicroStrategy 的估值提供了強有力的辯護。在 Medium 上分享的一份分析中，愛德華茲認為，在某些條件下，該公司當前的市值及其比特幣淨資產價值（NAV）的溢價是合理的。

“Everyone thinks MicroStrategy is overvalued. It’s not,” Edwards stated. He suggested that if the current Bitcoin cycle mirrors the previous one—even under less favorable conditions—and if Saylor continues to aggressively acquire Bitcoin, then MicroStrategy has substantial growth potential. “Saylor needs to buy Bitcoin more aggressively the wider their NAV premium is. The 21/21 plan won’t do anymore as the market has already priced it in,” he noted.

「每個人都認為 MicroStrategy 被高估了。事實並非如此，」愛德華茲說。他表示，如果當前的比特幣週期與先前的周期一致——即使在不太有利的條件下——並且如果 Saylor 繼續積極收購比特幣，那麼 MicroStrategy 就有巨大的成長潛力。 「資產淨值溢價越大，塞勒就需要更積極地購買比特幣。 21/21 計劃將不再有效，因為市場已經消化了這一點，」他指出。

Edwards emphasized the scale of recent capital raises, highlighting that “Saylor’s raised $9.6 billion in the last nine days alone.” He contended that with Bitcoin’s market capitalization poised to exceed $2 trillion, there’s a significant audience of bond traders who cannot directly access Bitcoin due to investment mandates. “The US bond market is $50 trillion—more than 25 times the size of Bitcoin. Today, MSTR is one of the only vehicles that gives bond traders exposure to Bitcoin,” Edwards explained. He added that MicroStrategy’s bond issues are “constantly oversubscribed,” displaying the strong demand for the MSTR stock.

Edwards 強調了近期融資規模，並強調“Saylor 僅在過去 9 天就籌集了 96 億美元。”他認為，隨著比特幣的市值預計將超過 2 兆美元，大量債券交易員因投資法規而無法直接接觸比特幣。 「美國債券市場規模達 50 兆美元，是比特幣規模的 25 倍以上。如今，MSTR 是唯一能讓債券交易員接觸比特幣的工具之一。他補充說，MicroStrategy 的債券發行“持續超額認購”，顯示出對 MSTR 股票的強勁需求。

Addressing potential skepticism about his projections, Edwards clarified that his analysis is based on specific assumptions. “If you think Bitcoin is going to $200,000, and Saylor buys $40 billion more Bitcoin, then it can be considered ‘fairly’ priced today over the short term,” he said. However, he acknowledged that this scenario requires Saylor to be “much more aggressive than currently planned” in purchasing Bitcoin and that “there are many risks.”

針對對其預測的潛在懷疑，愛德華茲澄清說，他的分析是基於特定的假設。 「如果你認為比特幣將達到 20 萬美元，而 Saylor 又購買了 400 億美元的比特幣，那麼短期內它的價格可以被認為是『合理』的，」他說。然而，他承認，這種情況要求塞勒在購買比特幣時“比目前計劃更加積極”，並且“存在很多風險”。

Edwards also cautioned investors about the volatility of MicroStrategy’s NAV premium. “The NAV premia for MSTR fluctuates widely and aggressively. Don’t expect it to be stable with Bitcoin,” he warned. He stressed that his analysis is a “scenario analysis” and should not be used to predict daily returns, especially with speculative Bitcoin price targets like $1 million.

Edwards 也提醒投資人注意 MicroStrategy 資產淨值溢價的波動性。 「MSTR 的資產淨值溢價波動廣泛且劇烈。不要指望比特幣會穩定，」他警告。他強調，他的分析是“情境分析”，不應該用來預測每日回報，特別是對於像 100 萬美元這樣的投機性比特幣價格目標。

Concluding his insights, Edwards underscored the potential impact of MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin accumulation on the market. “Saylor needs to keep busy over the next year to actively close the premium by raising a lot more capital, but provided he does, there’s potential for MSTR equity yet,” he asserted. “Either way, we have a massive Bitcoin buyer in the market that is about to go into overdrive.”

Edwards 在總結他的見解時強調了 MicroStrategy 持續累積比特幣對市場的潛在影響。 「塞勒需要在明年繼續忙碌，透過籌集更多資金來積極關閉溢價，但只要他這樣做，MSTR 股權就有潛力，」他斷言。 “無論哪種方式，我們市場上都有一個巨大的比特幣買家，他們即將進入超速狀態。”

At press time, MSTR stock traded at $395.89 pre-market.

截至發稿時，MSTR 股票盤前交易價格為 395.89 美元。