三月比特币分析：交易量增加，挖矿收入创纪录，但序数下降

2024 年 3 月的比特币链上指标显示，尽管交易量有所下降，但转账活动却有所增加。序号铭文放缓，但采矿收入创历史新高。资金利率飙升至21%，反映出看涨情绪。每日总转账量达到 693.4 亿美元，增长 74%，而平均交易费用攀升 25% 至 7.68 美元。目前，近 98% 的比特币地址都处于盈利状态，这表明盈利能力广泛。比特币矿商的收入增长了 35%，使其历史收入排名第 99%。

On-Chain Bitcoin Analysis for March 2024: Heightened Transfer Activity, Record Mining Revenues Amidst Ordinals Slowdown

2024 年 3 月链上比特币分析：转账活动增加，挖矿收入在序数放缓的情况下创纪录

Overview

概述

VanEck's on-chain analysis for March 2024 reveals a market characterized by increased transfer activity, fewer transactions, and record Bitcoin mining revenues despite a decline in Ordinals demand. These findings suggest a strengthening market position for Bitcoin miners and indicate potential opportunities for investors seeking undervalued assets within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

VanEck 对 2024 年 3 月的链上分析显示，尽管 Ordinals 需求下降，但市场的特点是转账活动增加、交易减少以及创纪录的比特币挖矿收入。这些发现表明比特币矿商的市场地位得到加强，并为投资者在加密货币生态系统中寻找被低估的资产表明了潜在的机会。

Bitcoin Price Action

比特币价格走势

In March, Bitcoin's price surged to an average of $65,504, a significant 38% monthly increase. This surge reflects growing investor confidence as the market anticipates the upcoming halving event. Additionally, trading volumes across the U.S., Asia, and Europe have become more balanced, indicating a more globally unified investment interest in Bitcoin.

3 月份，比特币的平均价格飙升至 65,504 美元，月涨幅高达 38%。这一飙升反映出投资者信心的增强，因为市场预计即将到来的减半事件。此外，美国、亚洲和欧洲的交易量变得更加平衡，表明全球对比特币的投资兴趣更加统一。

Funding Rates

资金费率

The annualized cost to roll Bitcoin futures contracts jumped to 21%, signaling bullishness about Bitcoin's price trajectory and a scarcity of dollar funding across the market. This suggests that investors are betting on further price appreciation in the short term.

比特币期货合约的年化成本跃升至 21%，这表明人们对比特币的价格轨迹持乐观态度，并且整个市场上美元融资稀缺。这表明投资者押注短期内价格进一步上涨。

Network Activity and Fees

网络活动和费用

Despite the positive price action, Bitcoin's daily transactions declined by 4%, indicating a lower level of on-chain activity. Ordinal inscriptions, a unique type of non-fungible token (NFT) stored on the Bitcoin blockchain, also experienced a 27% drop in daily activity, suggesting reduced interest in this specific area of the network.

尽管价格走势积极，但比特币的每日交易量下降了 4%，表明链上活动水平较低。序数铭文是存储在比特币区块链上的一种独特类型的不可替代代币 (NFT)，其日常活动也下降了 27%，这表明人们对网络这一特定领域的兴趣有所下降。

However, the total transfer volume on the Bitcoin network surged by an impressive 74%, reaching $69.34 billion per day. This elevated activity level places Bitcoin in the 90th percentile of historical performance and highlights the increased use of Bitcoin for transferring large amounts of value.

然而，比特币网络上的总转账量猛增了 74%，达到每天 693.4 亿美元。这种较高的活动水平使比特币处于历史表现的第 90%，并突显了比特币在转移大量价值方面的使用增加。

Average transaction fees also increased by 25% month-over-month to $7.68, indicating a growing cost of participation in the network amidst surging demand. This fee level ranks within the 93rd percentile historically, reflecting increased competition for block space and a shift towards higher-value transactions.

平均交易费用也环比增长 25% 至 7.68 美元，这表明在需求激增的情况下参与网络的成本不断增加。从历史上看，这一费用水平位于第 93 个百分位内，反映出对区块空间的竞争加剧以及向更高价值交易的转变。

Market Health and Profitability

市场健康度和盈利能力

The percentage of Bitcoin addresses in profit reached 98%, suggesting widespread profitability for Bitcoin holders in the current market climate. Historically, when this metric reaches 100%, Bitcoin has tended to make repeated all-time highs, indicating the potential for further price appreciation in the future.

比特币地址盈利率达到98%，表明在当前市场环境下，比特币持有者普遍盈利。从历史上看，当该指标达到 100% 时，比特币往往会屡创历史新高，表明未来价格有进一步升值的潜力。

The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) ratio, which measures the market's overall profitability, climbed to 0.61, indicating growing optimism within the market. While this ratio is not yet at the "euphoric" levels above 0.75 that have marked previous peaks, it suggests a strong underlying sentiment among Bitcoin holders.

衡量市场整体盈利能力的未实现净损益（NUPL）比率攀升至0.61，表明市场乐观情绪日益增强。虽然这一比率尚未达到之前达到峰值的 0.75 以上的“欣快”水平，但它表明比特币持有者存在强烈的潜在情绪。

Bitcoin Miners

比特币矿工

Total daily Bitcoin miner revenues experienced a significant 35% boost in March, reaching $62.84 million. This surge in revenue placed Bitcoin miners in the 99th percentile for historical earnings. The improvement in miner profitability is expected to continue as the Bitcoin network approaches the next halving event, which will reduce the block reward and increase miners' competition for fees.

3 月份，比特币矿工的每日总收入大幅增长 35%，达到 6284 万美元。收入的激增使比特币矿商的历史收益达到了第 99%。随着比特币网络临近下一次减半事件，矿工盈利能力预计将持续改善，这将减少区块奖励并加剧矿工的费用竞争。

Chart of the Month: Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Miners

本月图表：比特币与比特币矿工

The chart of the month compares the performance of Bitcoin (XBTUSD) to that of a custom index of the top 4 U.S. Bitcoin miners (BTCMINER). The chart shows a positive correlation between the two, indicating that Bitcoin miners' profitability is closely tied to the price of Bitcoin. As Bitcoin's price rises, miners' revenues increase, leading to higher stock prices for publicly traded mining companies.

本月图表将比特币 (XBTUSD) 的表现与美国四大比特币矿商的自定义指数 (BTCMINER) 的表现进行了比较。该图表显示两者之间呈正相关关系，表明比特币矿商的盈利能力与比特币的价格密切相关。随着比特币价格上涨，矿工收入增加，导致上市矿业公司的股价上涨。

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (NUPL)

未实现净损益率 (NUPL)

The NUPL ratio is calculated by subtracting the realized market cap from the market cap and dividing the result by the market cap. It measures the overall profitability of Bitcoin holders and can provide insights into market sentiment. A high percentage of unrealized profits indicates that investors are optimistic and expect the price to continue rising. Conversely, a low percentage of unrealized profits suggests that investors are cautious and may be expecting a price decline.

NUPL 比率的计算方法是从市值中减去已实现的市值，然后将结果除以市值。它衡量比特币持有者的整体盈利能力，并可以提供对市场情绪的洞察。未实现利润比例较高表明投资者持乐观态度，预计价格将继续上涨。相反，未实现利润的比例较低表明投资者持谨慎态度，并可能预计价格会下跌。

Risks and Considerations

风险和注意事项

The information presented in this analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Investing in Bitcoin and other digital assets involves significant risk and potential for loss. It is crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

本分析中提供的信息仅供参考，不应被视为投资建议。投资比特币和其他数字资产涉及重大风险和潜在损失。在做出任何投资决定之前，进行彻底的研究并咨询合格的财务顾问至关重要。

Additional Notes

补充笔记

• The views expressed in this analysis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of VanEck or any of its affiliates.
• Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
• Investors should be aware that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can fluctuate rapidly.
• It is essential to stay informed about the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency industry before making any investment decisions.

本分析中表达的观点仅代表作者的观点，并不一定反映 VanEck 或其任何附属公司的观点。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。投资者应该意识到，加密货币市场波动性很大，可能会出现波动。在做出任何投资决策之前，了解加密货币行业的最新消息和发展至关重要。