三月比特幣分析：交易量增加，挖礦收入創紀錄，但序數下降

2024 年 3 月的比特幣鏈上指標顯示，儘管交易量下降，但轉帳活動卻有所增加。序號銘文放緩，但採礦收入創歷史新高。資金利率飆升至21%，反映出看漲情緒。每日總轉帳量達到 693.4 億美元，成長 74%，而平均交易費用攀升 25% 至 7.68 美元。目前，近 98% 的比特幣地址都處於盈利狀態，這表明盈利能力廣泛。比特幣礦商的收入成長了 35%，使其歷史收入排名第 99%。

On-Chain Bitcoin Analysis for March 2024: Heightened Transfer Activity, Record Mining Revenues Amidst Ordinals Slowdown

2024 年 3 月鏈上比特幣分析：轉帳活動增加，挖礦收入在序數放緩的情況下創紀錄

Overview

概述

VanEck's on-chain analysis for March 2024 reveals a market characterized by increased transfer activity, fewer transactions, and record Bitcoin mining revenues despite a decline in Ordinals demand. These findings suggest a strengthening market position for Bitcoin miners and indicate potential opportunities for investors seeking undervalued assets within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

VanEck 對 2024 年 3 月的鏈上分析顯示，儘管 Ordinals 需求下降，但市場的特點是轉帳活動增加、交易減少以及創紀錄的比特幣挖礦收入。這些發現表明比特幣礦商的市場地位得到加強，並為投資者在加密貨幣生態系統中尋找被低估的資產表明了潛在的​​機會。

Bitcoin Price Action

比特幣價格走勢

In March, Bitcoin's price surged to an average of $65,504, a significant 38% monthly increase. This surge reflects growing investor confidence as the market anticipates the upcoming halving event. Additionally, trading volumes across the U.S., Asia, and Europe have become more balanced, indicating a more globally unified investment interest in Bitcoin.

3 月份，比特幣的平均價格飆升至 65,504 美元，月漲幅高達 38%。這一飆升反映出投資者信心的增強，因為市場預計即將到來的減半事件。此外，美國、亞洲和歐洲的交易量變得更加平衡，顯示全球對比特幣的投資興趣更加統一。

Funding Rates

資金費率

The annualized cost to roll Bitcoin futures contracts jumped to 21%, signaling bullishness about Bitcoin's price trajectory and a scarcity of dollar funding across the market. This suggests that investors are betting on further price appreciation in the short term.

比特幣期貨合約的年化成本躍升至 21%，顯示人們對比特幣的價格軌跡持樂觀態度，並且整個市場上美元融資稀缺。這顯示投資者押注短期內價格進一步上漲。

Network Activity and Fees

網路活動和費用

Despite the positive price action, Bitcoin's daily transactions declined by 4%, indicating a lower level of on-chain activity. Ordinal inscriptions, a unique type of non-fungible token (NFT) stored on the Bitcoin blockchain, also experienced a 27% drop in daily activity, suggesting reduced interest in this specific area of the network.

儘管價格走勢積極，但比特幣的每日交易量下降了 4%，顯示鏈上活動水平較低。序數銘文是儲存在比特幣區塊鏈上的獨特類型的不可替代代幣 (NFT)，其日常活動也下降了 27%，這表明人們對網路這一特定領域的興趣有所下降。

However, the total transfer volume on the Bitcoin network surged by an impressive 74%, reaching $69.34 billion per day. This elevated activity level places Bitcoin in the 90th percentile of historical performance and highlights the increased use of Bitcoin for transferring large amounts of value.

然而，比特幣網路上的總轉帳量激增了 74%，達到每天 693.4 億美元。這種較高的活動水準使比特幣處於歷史表現的第 90%，並突顯了比特幣在轉移大量價值方面的使用增加。

Average transaction fees also increased by 25% month-over-month to $7.68, indicating a growing cost of participation in the network amidst surging demand. This fee level ranks within the 93rd percentile historically, reflecting increased competition for block space and a shift towards higher-value transactions.

平均交易費用也環比增長 25% 至 7.68 美元，這表明在需求激增的情況下參與網路的成本不斷增加。從歷史上看，這一費用水準位於第 93 個百分位內，反映出對區塊空間的競爭加劇以及向更高價值交易的轉變。

Market Health and Profitability

市場健康度和獲利能力

The percentage of Bitcoin addresses in profit reached 98%, suggesting widespread profitability for Bitcoin holders in the current market climate. Historically, when this metric reaches 100%, Bitcoin has tended to make repeated all-time highs, indicating the potential for further price appreciation in the future.

比特幣地址獲利率達98%，顯示在當前市場環境下，比特幣持有者普遍獲利。從歷史上看，當該指標達到 100% 時，比特幣往往會屢創歷史新高，顯示未來價格有進一步升值的潛力。

The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) ratio, which measures the market's overall profitability, climbed to 0.61, indicating growing optimism within the market. While this ratio is not yet at the "euphoric" levels above 0.75 that have marked previous peaks, it suggests a strong underlying sentiment among Bitcoin holders.

衡量市場整體獲利能力的未實現淨損益（NUPL）比率攀升至0.61，顯示市場樂觀情緒日益增強。雖然這一比率尚未達到先前達到峰值的 0.75 以上的「欣快」水平，但它表明比特幣持有者存在強烈的潛在情緒。

Bitcoin Miners

比特幣礦工

Total daily Bitcoin miner revenues experienced a significant 35% boost in March, reaching $62.84 million. This surge in revenue placed Bitcoin miners in the 99th percentile for historical earnings. The improvement in miner profitability is expected to continue as the Bitcoin network approaches the next halving event, which will reduce the block reward and increase miners' competition for fees.

3 月份，比特幣礦工的每日總收入大幅成長 35%，達到 6,284 萬美元。收入的激增使比特幣礦商的歷史收益達到了第 99%。隨著比特幣網路接近下一次減半事件，礦工獲利能力預計將持續改善，這將減少區塊獎勵並加劇礦工的費用競爭。

Chart of the Month: Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Miners

本月圖表：比特幣與比特幣礦工

The chart of the month compares the performance of Bitcoin (XBTUSD) to that of a custom index of the top 4 U.S. Bitcoin miners (BTCMINER). The chart shows a positive correlation between the two, indicating that Bitcoin miners' profitability is closely tied to the price of Bitcoin. As Bitcoin's price rises, miners' revenues increase, leading to higher stock prices for publicly traded mining companies.

本月圖表將比特幣 (XBTUSD) 的表現與美國四大比特幣礦商的自訂指數 (BTCMINER) 的表現進行了比較。此圖表顯示兩者之間呈正相關關係，顯示比特幣礦商的獲利能力與比特幣的價格密切相關。隨著比特幣價格上漲，礦工收入增加，導致上市礦業公司的股價上漲。

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (NUPL)

未實現淨損益率 (NUPL)

The NUPL ratio is calculated by subtracting the realized market cap from the market cap and dividing the result by the market cap. It measures the overall profitability of Bitcoin holders and can provide insights into market sentiment. A high percentage of unrealized profits indicates that investors are optimistic and expect the price to continue rising. Conversely, a low percentage of unrealized profits suggests that investors are cautious and may be expecting a price decline.

NUPL 比率的計算方法是從市值中減去已實現的市值，然後將結果除以市值。它衡量比特幣持有者的整體獲利能力，並可以提供對市場情緒的洞察。未實現利潤比例較高表示投資者持樂觀態度，預計價格將繼續上漲。相反，未實現利潤的比例較低表示投資者持謹慎態度，並可能預期價格會下跌。

Risks and Considerations

風險和注意事項

The information presented in this analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Investing in Bitcoin and other digital assets involves significant risk and potential for loss. It is crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

本分析提供的資訊僅供參考，不應被視為投資建議。投資比特幣和其他數位資產涉及重大風險和潛在損失。在做出任何投資決定之前，進行徹底的研究並諮詢合格的財務顧問至關重要。

Additional Notes

補充筆記

• The views expressed in this analysis are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of VanEck or any of its affiliates.
• Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
• Investors should be aware that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can fluctuate rapidly.
• It is essential to stay informed about the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency industry before making any investment decisions.

本分析中表達的觀點僅代表作者的觀點，不一定反映VanEck 或其任何附屬公司的觀點。過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果。投資者應該意識到，加密貨幣市場波動性很大，可能會出現波動。在做出任何投資決策之前，了解加密貨幣行業的最新消息和發展至關重要。