机构门户 - 索拉纳（Solana）占据了中心地位

3月17日在芝加哥商业交易所（CME）上推出索拉纳（Sol）期货是一项备受期待的活动

The launch of Solana (SOL) futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on March 17 was a hotly anticipated event, marking a significant step in Solana’s journey towards institutional adoption. However, the initial trading volume of $12.1 million fell short of the expectations set by the day-one launches of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) CME futures. This article delves into the nuances of Solana’s CME debut, comparing its performance with its predecessors, analyzing normalized volume metrics, and exploring the potential long-term implications for SOL.

3月17日在芝加哥商人交易所（CME）上推出了Solana（Sol）期货，这是一项备受期待的活动，这标志着Solana在机构采用的旅程中迈出了重要一步。但是，最初的1,210万美元的交易量远远没有达到比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）CME期货的期望。本文深入研究了Solana的CME首次亮相，将其性能与前任进行比较，分析归一化的数量指标，并探索对SOL的潜在长期影响。

The Initial Numbers: A Comparative Analysis

初始数字：比较分析

The raw trading volume of $12.1 million on Solana’s first day of CME futures trading drew attention, especially when comparing it with the much higher volumes observed during the launches of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. This initial comparison might lead to the conclusion that Solana’s CME launch was disappointing. However, a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.

索拉纳（Solana）CME期货交易第一天的原始交易量为1,210万美元引起了人们的关注，尤其是将比特币和以太坊期货期间观察到的量更高的销量进行比较。最初的比较可能会得出这样的结论：Solana的CME发布令人失望。但是，更深入的分析揭示了更细微的图片。

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33Research, provided valuable insights into the trading activity. According to Lunde’s calculations, Bitcoin CME futures generated a trading volume of $688 million on their first day of trading in December 2017, while Ethereum CME futures saw a volume of $319 million on February 8, 2021. In contrast, Solana’s CME futures generated a trading volume of $12.1 million on March 17.

K33 Research研究负责人Vetle Lunde Vetle Lunde对交易活动提供了宝贵的见解。根据伦德的计算，比特币CME期货在2017年12月交易的第一天产生了6.88亿美元的交易量，而以太坊CME期货在2021年2月8日的交易量为3.19亿美元。相反，Solana的CME Futures在3月17日产生了1,1100万美元的交易量。

Furthermore, comparing the ratios of the first day’s trading volume to the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization at the beginning of the day, we observe that Bitcoin had a ratio of 0.0319%, Ethereum had a ratio of 0.0173%, and Solana had a ratio of 0.0166%.

此外，将第一天的交易量与加密货币在一天开始时的市值相比，我们观察到比特币的比率为0.0319％，以太坊的比率为0.0173％，而Solana的比率为0.0166％。

The Power of Normalized Volume: A Fairer Metric

标准化量的功率：更公平的度量

As Lunde astutely pointed out, comparing raw trading volumes without considering market capitalization can be misleading. To provide a fairer assessment, it’s essential to examine normalized volumes, which adjust trading activity relative to a crypto asset’s market cap.

正如隆德敏锐指出的那样，比较不考虑市值的原始交易量可能会产生误导。为了提供更公平的评估，必须检查标准化量，这些量规定的量相对于加密资产的市值调整了交易活动。

Normalized volume offers a more transparent evaluation of institutional engagement, as it accounts for the differences in market size between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. This metric allows us to understand how much interest there is per unit of market capitalization.

归一化量提供了对机构参与度的更透明评估，因为它说明了比特币，以太坊和Solana之间市场规模的差异。该指标使我们能够了解每单位市值有多少兴趣。

Comparative Normalized Volumes: Bitcoin Leads, Solana and Ethereum Align

比较标准化体积：比特币铅，索拉纳和以太坊对齐

When normalized volumes are compared, Bitcoin emerges as the leader, with a normalized volume of 0.0319%. This means that for every $1 held by investors at the beginning of the day, $0.0319 was traded on average during the day.

当比较归一化体积时，比特币作为领导者出现，标准化量为0.0319％。这意味着，在当天开始时，投资者每1美元持有的$ 1，平均在白天进行了0.0319美元的交易。

In contrast, Ethereum and Solana had lower normalized volumes, with 0.0173% and 0.0166%, respectively. This suggests that while there was less interest in both assets relative to their market caps, the level of engagement was still significant, especially considering the early stages of institutional adoption.

相比之下，以太坊和索拉纳的归一量量较低，分别为0.0173％和0.0166％。这表明，尽管相对于其市值，这两个资产的兴趣较小，但参与水平仍然很高，尤其是考虑到机构采用的早期阶段。

Interpreting the Normalized Volume Data:

解释归一化卷数据：

The normalized volume data suggests that Solana’s CME futures launch, while not as explosive as Bitcoin’s, was not a complete failure. The similarity in normalized volumes between Ethereum and Solana indicates that institutional investors are showing a similar level of interest in both assets, relative to their market caps.

归一化量数据表明，Solana的CME期货启动虽然不如比特币爆炸性，但并不是完全失败。以太坊和索拉纳之间的归一化量的相似性表明，相对于其市场上限，机构投资者在这两个资产上都表现出相似的兴趣水平。

This analysis highlights the importance of considering normalized metrics when evaluating the performance of cryptocurrency futures launches. Raw trading volumes can be deceiving, especially when comparing assets with vastly different market capitalizations.

该分析强调了在评估加密货币期货启动的性能时考虑标准化指标的重要性。原始交易量可能是欺骗的，尤其是在比较具有截然不同的市值的资产时。

The Historical Precedent: Bitcoin and Ethereum’s CME Launches

历史先例：比特币和以太坊的CME启动

To gain a better understanding of the potential implications of Solana’s CME launch, it’s essential to examine the historical precedents set by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

为了更好地了解Solana发射CME的潜在影响，必须检查比特币和以太坊设定的历史先例。

Bitcoin’s CME Launch: A Bear Market Catalyst?

比特币的CME发布：熊市催化剂？

The launch of Bitcoin CME futures on December 18, 2017, coincided with the peak of the 2017 bull market. Following the launch, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping from $19,000 to $14,000 by the end of the year. This correction continued into 2018, marking the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

2017年12月18日，比特币CME期货的推出与2017年牛市的顶峰相吻合。发布之后，比特币显着下降，到年底从19,000美元下降到14,000美元。这种更正一直持续到2018年，标志着长时间熊市的开始。

While it’s difficult to attribute the bear market solely to the CME futures launch, it’s clear that the event coincided with a significant shift in market sentiment. The optimism and hype surrounding Bitcoin’s all-time high began to fade as the futures launch approached, and the cryptocurrency’s price came under pressure.

虽然很难将熊市市场仅仅归因于CME期货的推出，但很明显，该事件与市场情绪的重大变化相吻合。随着期货的临近，围绕比特币历史最高高的乐观和炒作开始消失，加密货币的价格受到压力。

The launch itself was met with mixed reactions, with some analysts and traders expressing skepticism about the timing and impact of the futures contract. At the same time, others believed that it would open up new avenues for institutional investment and liquidity.

发射本身的反应混合了，一些分析师和交易者对期货合约的时机和影响表示怀疑。同时，其他人认为它将为机构投资和流动性开辟新的途径。

Ultimately, the bear market of 2018 had several contributing factors, including regulatory scrutiny, exchange hacks, and the unwinding of leveraged positions. Still, the correlation between the CME futures launch and the subsequent price correction is undeniable

最终，2018年的熊市有几个促成因素，包括监管审查，交换骇客和杠杆位置的放松。尽管如此，CME期货发布与随后的价格更正之间的相关性是不可否认的