機構門戶 - 索拉納（Solana）佔據了中心地位

3月17日在芝加哥商業交易所（CME）上推出索拉納（Sol）期貨是一項備受期待的活動

The launch of Solana (SOL) futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on March 17 was a hotly anticipated event, marking a significant step in Solana’s journey towards institutional adoption. However, the initial trading volume of $12.1 million fell short of the expectations set by the day-one launches of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) CME futures. This article delves into the nuances of Solana’s CME debut, comparing its performance with its predecessors, analyzing normalized volume metrics, and exploring the potential long-term implications for SOL.

3月17日在芝加哥商人交易所（CME）上推出了Solana（Sol）期貨，這是一項備受期待的活動，這標誌著Solana在機構採用的旅程中邁出了重要一步。但是，最初的1,210萬美元的交易量遠遠沒有達到比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）CME期貨的期望。本文深入研究了Solana的CME首次亮相，將其性能與前任進行比較，分析歸一化的數量指標，並探索對SOL的潛在長期影響。

The Initial Numbers: A Comparative Analysis

初始數字：比較分析

The raw trading volume of $12.1 million on Solana’s first day of CME futures trading drew attention, especially when comparing it with the much higher volumes observed during the launches of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. This initial comparison might lead to the conclusion that Solana’s CME launch was disappointing. However, a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.

索拉納（Solana）CME期貨交易第一天的原始交易量為1,210萬美元引起了人們的關注，尤其是將比特幣和以太坊期貨期間觀察到的量更高的銷量進行比較。最初的比較可能會得出這樣的結論：Solana的CME發布令人失望。但是，更深入的分析揭示了更細微的圖片。

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33Research, provided valuable insights into the trading activity. According to Lunde’s calculations, Bitcoin CME futures generated a trading volume of $688 million on their first day of trading in December 2017, while Ethereum CME futures saw a volume of $319 million on February 8, 2021. In contrast, Solana’s CME futures generated a trading volume of $12.1 million on March 17.

K33 Research研究負責人Vetle Lunde Vetle Lunde對交易活動提供了寶貴的見解。根據倫德的計算，比特幣CME期貨在2017年12月交易的第一天產生了6.88億美元的交易量，而以太坊CME期貨在2021年2月8日的交易量為3.19億美元。相反，Solana的CME Futures在3月17日產生了1,1100萬美元的交易量。

Furthermore, comparing the ratios of the first day’s trading volume to the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization at the beginning of the day, we observe that Bitcoin had a ratio of 0.0319%, Ethereum had a ratio of 0.0173%, and Solana had a ratio of 0.0166%.

此外，將第一天的交易量與加密貨幣在一天開始時的市值相比，我們觀察到比特幣的比率為0.0319％，以太坊的比率為0.0173％，而Solana的比率為0.0166％。

The Power of Normalized Volume: A Fairer Metric

標準化量的功率：更公平的度量

As Lunde astutely pointed out, comparing raw trading volumes without considering market capitalization can be misleading. To provide a fairer assessment, it’s essential to examine normalized volumes, which adjust trading activity relative to a crypto asset’s market cap.

正如隆德敏銳指出的那樣，比較不考慮市值的原始交易量可能會產生誤導。為了提供更公平的評估，必須檢查標準化量，這些量規定的量相對於加密資產的市值調整了交易活動。

Normalized volume offers a more transparent evaluation of institutional engagement, as it accounts for the differences in market size between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. This metric allows us to understand how much interest there is per unit of market capitalization.

歸一化量提供了對機構參與度的更透明評估，因為它說明了比特幣，以太坊和Solana之間市場規模的差異。該指標使我們能夠了解每單位市值有多少興趣。

Comparative Normalized Volumes: Bitcoin Leads, Solana and Ethereum Align

比較標準化體積：比特幣鉛，索拉納和以太坊對齊

When normalized volumes are compared, Bitcoin emerges as the leader, with a normalized volume of 0.0319%. This means that for every $1 held by investors at the beginning of the day, $0.0319 was traded on average during the day.

當比較歸一化體積時，比特幣作為領導者出現，標準化量為0.0319％。這意味著，在當天開始時，投資者每1美元持有的$ 1，平均在白天進行了0.0319美元的交易。

In contrast, Ethereum and Solana had lower normalized volumes, with 0.0173% and 0.0166%, respectively. This suggests that while there was less interest in both assets relative to their market caps, the level of engagement was still significant, especially considering the early stages of institutional adoption.

相比之下，以太坊和索拉納的歸一量量較低，分別為0.0173％和0.0166％。這表明，儘管相對於其市值，這兩個資產的興趣較小，但參與水平仍然很高，尤其是考慮到機構採用的早期階段。

Interpreting the Normalized Volume Data:

解釋歸一化卷數據：

The normalized volume data suggests that Solana’s CME futures launch, while not as explosive as Bitcoin’s, was not a complete failure. The similarity in normalized volumes between Ethereum and Solana indicates that institutional investors are showing a similar level of interest in both assets, relative to their market caps.

歸一化量數據表明，Solana的CME期貨啟動雖然不如比特幣爆炸性，但並不是完全失敗。以太坊和索拉納之間的歸一化量的相似性表明，相對於其市場上限，機構投資者在這兩個資產上都表現出相似的興趣水平。

This analysis highlights the importance of considering normalized metrics when evaluating the performance of cryptocurrency futures launches. Raw trading volumes can be deceiving, especially when comparing assets with vastly different market capitalizations.

該分析強調了在評估加密貨幣期貨啟動的性能時考慮標準化指標的重要性。原始交易量可能是欺騙的，尤其是在比較具有截然不同的市值的資產時。

The Historical Precedent: Bitcoin and Ethereum’s CME Launches

歷史先例：比特幣和以太坊的CME啟動

To gain a better understanding of the potential implications of Solana’s CME launch, it’s essential to examine the historical precedents set by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

為了更好地了解Solana發射CME的潛在影響，必須檢查比特幣和以太坊設定的歷史先例。

Bitcoin’s CME Launch: A Bear Market Catalyst?

比特幣的CME發布：熊市催化劑？

The launch of Bitcoin CME futures on December 18, 2017, coincided with the peak of the 2017 bull market. Following the launch, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping from $19,000 to $14,000 by the end of the year. This correction continued into 2018, marking the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

2017年12月18日，比特幣CME期貨的推出與2017年牛市的頂峰相吻合。發布之後，比特幣顯著下降，到年底從19,000美元下降到14,000美元。這種更正一直持續到2018年，標誌著長時間熊市的開始。

While it’s difficult to attribute the bear market solely to the CME futures launch, it’s clear that the event coincided with a significant shift in market sentiment. The optimism and hype surrounding Bitcoin’s all-time high began to fade as the futures launch approached, and the cryptocurrency’s price came under pressure.

雖然很難將熊市市場僅僅歸因於CME期貨的推出，但很明顯，該事件與市場情緒的重大變化相吻合。隨著期貨的臨近，圍繞比特幣歷史最高高的樂觀和炒作開始消失，加密貨幣的價格受到壓力。

The launch itself was met with mixed reactions, with some analysts and traders expressing skepticism about the timing and impact of the futures contract. At the same time, others believed that it would open up new avenues for institutional investment and liquidity.

發射本身的反應混合了，一些分析師和交易者對期貨合約的時機和影響表示懷疑。同時，其他人認為它將為機構投資和流動性開闢新的途徑。

Ultimately, the bear market of 2018 had several contributing factors, including regulatory scrutiny, exchange hacks, and the unwinding of leveraged positions. Still, the correlation between the CME futures launch and the subsequent price correction is undeniable

最終，2018年的熊市有幾個促成因素，包括監管審查，交換駭客和槓杆位置的放鬆。儘管如此，CME期貨發布與隨後的價格更正之間的相關性是不可否認的