巴基斯坦最受欢迎的政治家伊姆兰·汗 (Imran Khan) 本月面临 14 年监禁，他的政党称这起案件是用来迫使他保持沉默的。

这位前总理长期以来一直让强大的军方感到沮丧，自 2023 年 8 月以来一直被拘留，并面临一系列他所说的出于政治动机的法律案件。

Pakistani politician Imran Khan, who has been in custody since August 2023, could face a 14-year prison term this month in a case his party says is being used to pressure him into silence.

巴基斯坦政治家伊姆兰·汗 (Imran Khan) 自 2023 年 8 月起一直被拘留，本月可能面临 14 年监禁，他的政党称该案被用来迫使他保持沉默。

Khan, a former prime minister who has long been a source of frustration for the powerful military, faces a slew of legal cases that he says are politically motivated.

汗是一位前总理，长期以来一直让强大的军方感到沮丧，他面临着一系列法律案件，他说这些案件都是出于政治动机。

A looming verdict for graft linked to a welfare foundation he set up with his wife, the Al-Qadir Trust, is the longest-running of those cases, with a verdict postponed on Monday for a third time.

即将对他与妻子建立的福利基金会 Al-Qadir Trust 相关的贪污案作出判决，这是这些案件中持续时间最长的一个，周一的判决已第三次推迟。

"The Al-Qadir Trust case, like previous cases, is being dragged on only to pressure me," Khan said this month in one of his frequent statements railing against authorities and posted on social media by his team.

“卡迪尔信托案与之前的案件一样，被拖延只是为了向我施加压力，”汗本月在他的团队在社交媒体上发布的一份经常谴责当局的声明中表示。

"But I demand its immediate resolution."

“但我要求立即解决。”

Analysts say the military establishment is using the sentence as a bargaining chip with Khan, whose popularity undermines a shaky coalition government that kept his party from power in elections last year.

分析人士表示，军方正在利用这句话作为与汗讨价还价的筹码，汗的受欢迎程度削弱了摇摇欲坠的联合政府，导致他的政党在去年的选举中无法掌权。

"The establishment's deal is he comes out and stays quiet, stays decent, until the next election," said Ayesha Siddiqa, a London-based author and analyst on Pakistan's military.

“建制派的协议是，他要站出来，保持安静，保持体面，直到下一次选举，”驻伦敦的作家兼巴基斯坦军方分析师阿耶莎·西迪卡 (Ayesha Siddiqa) 说。

Khan said he had once been offered a three-year exile abroad and was also "indirectly approached" recently about the possibility of house arrest at his sprawling home on the outskirts of the capital.

汗说，他曾被提议在国外流放三年，最近还“间接接触”他在首都郊区庞大的家中被软禁的可能性。

"We can assume from the delays that this is a politically motivated judgement. It is a Damocles sword over him," Khan's legal adviser Faisal Fareed Chaudhry told AFP.

汗的法律顾问费萨尔·法里德·乔杜里（Faisal Fareed Chaudhry）告诉法新社：“从延误中我们可以推测，这是出于政治动机的判决。这是悬在他身上的达摩克利斯之剑。”

"The case has lost its credibility," he said, adding that Khan will not accept any deal to stay silent.

“这个案子已经失去了可信度，”他说，并补充说汗不会接受任何保持沉默的协议。

Khan has been convicted and sentenced four times in other cases .Two cases have been overturned by the Supreme Court, while judges have suspended the sentences from the other two.

汗在其他案件中曾四次被定罪和判刑。其中两起案件已被最高法院推翻，而法官则对另外两起案件缓刑。

The specialist anti-graft "accountability court" is set to announce the verdict and sentence in the welfare foundation case on Friday, two days after government envoys are scheduled to meet leaders from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to ease tensions.

专门的反腐败“问责法庭”将于周五宣布福利基金会案的判决和刑罚，两天前政府特使计划会见汗所在的巴基斯坦正义运动党（PTI）领导人以缓解紧张局势。

The PTI has previously sworn to refuse talks with a government its leaders claim is illegitimate, alleging the coalition seized power by rigging February 2024 polls.

PTI 此前曾发誓拒绝与其领导人声称不合法的政府进行谈判，并指控该联盟通过操纵 2024 年 2 月的民意调查夺取了权力。

They say they will only take part if political prisoners are released and an independent inquiry is launched into allegations of a heavy-handed response by authorities to PTI protests.

他们表示，只有政治犯获释，并对当局对 PTI 抗议活动采取严厉措施的指控展开独立调查，他们才会参与。

Otherwise, Khan has threatened to pull his party from the negotiations and continue with a campaign of civil disobedience that has frequently brought Islamabad to a standstill.

否则，汗威胁要让他的政党退出谈判，并继续进行公民不服从运动，这经常使伊斯兰堡陷入瘫痪。

The most recent protests flared around November 26, when the PTI allege at least 10 of their activists were shot dead. The government says five security force members were killed in the chaos.

最近一次抗议活动于 11 月 26 日左右爆发，当时 PTI 声称至少 10 名活动人士被枪杀。政府表示，五名安全部队成员在混乱中丧生。

"The government would like to appear legitimate, and for that they need PTI to sit down in talks with them," said Asma Faiz, associate professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

拉合尔管理科学大学政治学副教授阿斯玛·法伊兹表示：“政府希望显得合法，为此他们需要 PTI 坐下来与他们进行谈判。”

"Ideally, they would be looking to offer some relief to Imran Khan and his party to appease the domestic and international criticism," she told AFP.

她告诉法新社：“理想情况下，他们会寻求向伊姆兰·汗及其政党提供一些救济，以平息国内和国际的批评。”

For now, it appears to be a stalemate, said Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute director at The Wilson Center in Washington.

华盛顿威尔逊中心南亚研究所所长迈克尔·库格曼表示，目前看来陷入了僵局。

"The army might be willing to give Khan a deal that gets him out of jail, but Khan wouldn't accept the likely conditions of his freedom," he told AFP.

他告诉法新社：“军队可能愿意与汗达成一项协议，让他出狱，但汗不会接受可能的自由条件。”

"Another problem is I can't imagine the government agreeing to an investigation of November 26. But PTI won't budge on that demand."

“另一个问题是，我无法想象政府会同意 11 月 26 日的调查。但 PTI 不会对这一要求做出让步。”

A stint in exile is common in the trajectory of political leaders in Pakistan who fall out of favour with the military and find themselves before the courts, only to return to power later.

流亡一段时间在巴基斯坦政治领导人的人生轨迹中是很常见的，他们失去了军方的青睐，最终被送上了法庭，但后来又重新掌权。

Three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif served only a fraction of a sentence for corruption, spending several years in London before returning to Pakistan in late 2023.

三届总理纳瓦兹·谢里夫因腐败只服刑了一小部分，他在伦敦待了几年，然后于 2023 年底返回巴基斯坦。

Former and current president Asif Ali Zardari moved to Dubai after his party was rebuked by the generals.

前总统和现任总统阿西夫·阿里·扎尔达里在他的政党受到将军们的斥责后搬到了迪拜。

Both men are now considered the chief architects of the ruling coalition.

两人现在都被认为是执政联盟的首席设计师。

But exile might not fit with the carefully worked image of Khan, whose political rise was based on the promise of replacing decades of entrenched dynastic politics.

但流亡可能不符合汗精心塑造的形象，他的政治崛起是基于取代数十年根深蒂固的王朝政治的承诺。

"I will live and die in Pakistan," Khan said in a statement shared by his lawyers. "I will fight for my country's freedom until my last breath, and I expect my nation to do the same."

汗在他的律师分享的一份声明中说：“我将在巴基斯坦生活和死亡。” “我将为祖国的自由而战，直到最后一口气，我希望我的国家也能这样做。”