巴基斯坦最受歡迎的政治家伊姆蘭汗 (Imran Khan) 本月面臨 14 年監禁，他的政黨稱這起案件是用來迫使他保持沉默的。

這位前總理長期以來一直讓強大的軍方感到沮喪，自 2023 年 8 月以來一直被拘留，並面臨一系列他所說的出於政治動機的法律案件。

Pakistani politician Imran Khan, who has been in custody since August 2023, could face a 14-year prison term this month in a case his party says is being used to pressure him into silence.

巴基斯坦政治家伊姆蘭汗 (Imran Khan) 自 2023 年 8 月起一直被拘留，本月可能面臨 14 年監禁，他的政黨稱該案是用來迫使他保持沉默的。

Khan, a former prime minister who has long been a source of frustration for the powerful military, faces a slew of legal cases that he says are politically motivated.

汗是一位前總理，長期以來一直讓強大的軍方感到沮喪，他面臨一系列法律案件，他說這些案件都是出於政治動機。

A looming verdict for graft linked to a welfare foundation he set up with his wife, the Al-Qadir Trust, is the longest-running of those cases, with a verdict postponed on Monday for a third time.

即將對他與妻子建立的福利基金會 Al-Qadir Trust 相關的貪污案作出判決，這是這些案件中持續時間最長的一個，週一的判決已第三次推遲。

"The Al-Qadir Trust case, like previous cases, is being dragged on only to pressure me," Khan said this month in one of his frequent statements railing against authorities and posted on social media by his team.

「卡迪爾信託案與先前的案件一樣，被拖延只是為了向我施加壓力，」汗本月在他的團隊在社群媒體上發布的一份經常譴責當局的聲明中表示。

"But I demand its immediate resolution."

“但我要求立即解決。”

Analysts say the military establishment is using the sentence as a bargaining chip with Khan, whose popularity undermines a shaky coalition government that kept his party from power in elections last year.

分析人士表示，軍方正在利用這句話作為與汗討價還價的籌碼，汗的受歡迎程度削弱了搖搖欲墜的聯合政府，導致他的政黨在去年的選舉中無法掌權。

"The establishment's deal is he comes out and stays quiet, stays decent, until the next election," said Ayesha Siddiqa, a London-based author and analyst on Pakistan's military.

「建制派的協議是，他要站出來，保持安靜，保持體面，直到下一次選舉，」駐倫敦的作家兼巴基斯坦軍方分析師阿耶莎·西迪卡 (Ayesha Siddiqa) 說。

Khan said he had once been offered a three-year exile abroad and was also "indirectly approached" recently about the possibility of house arrest at his sprawling home on the outskirts of the capital.

汗說，他曾被提議在國外流放三年，最近還「間接接觸」他在首都郊區龐大的家中被軟禁的可能性。

"We can assume from the delays that this is a politically motivated judgement. It is a Damocles sword over him," Khan's legal adviser Faisal Fareed Chaudhry told AFP.

汗的法律顧問費薩爾·法里德·喬杜里（Faisal Fareed Chaudhry）告訴法新社：「從延誤中我們可以推測，這是出於政治動機的判決。這是懸在他身上的達摩克利斯之劍。

"The case has lost its credibility," he said, adding that Khan will not accept any deal to stay silent.

「這個案子已經失去了可信度，」他說，並補充說汗不會接受任何保持沉默的協議。

Khan has been convicted and sentenced four times in other cases .Two cases have been overturned by the Supreme Court, while judges have suspended the sentences from the other two.

汗在其他案件中曾四次被定罪和判刑。

The specialist anti-graft "accountability court" is set to announce the verdict and sentence in the welfare foundation case on Friday, two days after government envoys are scheduled to meet leaders from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to ease tensions.

專門的反腐敗「問責法庭」將於週五宣佈福利基金會案的判決和刑罰，兩天前政府特使計劃會見汗所在的巴基斯坦正義運動黨（PTI）領導人以緩解緊張局勢。

The PTI has previously sworn to refuse talks with a government its leaders claim is illegitimate, alleging the coalition seized power by rigging February 2024 polls.

PTI 此前曾發誓拒絕與其領導人聲稱不合法的政府進行談判，並指控該聯盟通過操縱 2024 年 2 月的民意調查奪取了權力。

They say they will only take part if political prisoners are released and an independent inquiry is launched into allegations of a heavy-handed response by authorities to PTI protests.

他們表示，只有政治犯獲釋，並對當局對 PTI 抗議活動採取嚴厲措施的指控展開獨立調查，他們才會參與。

Otherwise, Khan has threatened to pull his party from the negotiations and continue with a campaign of civil disobedience that has frequently brought Islamabad to a standstill.

否則，汗威脅要讓他的政黨退出談判，並繼續進行公民不服從運動，這經常使伊斯蘭堡陷入癱瘓。

The most recent protests flared around November 26, when the PTI allege at least 10 of their activists were shot dead. The government says five security force members were killed in the chaos.

最近一次抗議活動於 11 月 26 日左右爆發，當時 PTI 聲稱至少 10 名活動人士被槍殺。政府表示，五名安全部隊成員在混亂中喪生。

"The government would like to appear legitimate, and for that they need PTI to sit down in talks with them," said Asma Faiz, associate professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

拉合爾管理科學大學政治學副教授阿斯瑪·法伊茲表示：“政府希望顯得合法，為此他們需要 PTI 坐下來與他們進行談判。”

"Ideally, they would be looking to offer some relief to Imran Khan and his party to appease the domestic and international criticism," she told AFP.

她告訴法新社：“理想情況下，他們會尋求向伊姆蘭汗及其政黨提供一些救濟，以平息國內和國際的批評。”

For now, it appears to be a stalemate, said Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute director at The Wilson Center in Washington.

華盛頓威爾遜中心南亞研究所所長麥可‧庫格曼表示，目前看來陷入了僵局。

"The army might be willing to give Khan a deal that gets him out of jail, but Khan wouldn't accept the likely conditions of his freedom," he told AFP.

他告訴法新社：“軍隊可能願意與汗達成協議，讓他出獄，但汗不會接受可能的自由條件。”

"Another problem is I can't imagine the government agreeing to an investigation of November 26. But PTI won't budge on that demand."

“另一個問題是，我無法想像政府會同意 11 月 26 日的調查。但 PTI 不會對這一要求做出讓步。”

A stint in exile is common in the trajectory of political leaders in Pakistan who fall out of favour with the military and find themselves before the courts, only to return to power later.

流亡一段時間在巴基斯坦政治領袖的人生軌跡中是很常見的，他們失去了軍方的青睞，最終被送上了法庭，但後來又重新掌權。

Three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif served only a fraction of a sentence for corruption, spending several years in London before returning to Pakistan in late 2023.

三屆總理納瓦茲·謝里夫因腐敗只服刑了一小部分，他在倫敦待了幾年，然後在 2023 年底返回巴基斯坦。

Former and current president Asif Ali Zardari moved to Dubai after his party was rebuked by the generals.

前總統和現任總統阿西夫·阿里·扎爾達裡在他的政黨受到將軍們的斥責後搬到了杜拜。

Both men are now considered the chief architects of the ruling coalition.

兩人現在都被認為是執政聯盟的首席設計師。

But exile might not fit with the carefully worked image of Khan, whose political rise was based on the promise of replacing decades of entrenched dynastic politics.

但流亡可能不符合汗精心塑造的形象，他的政治崛起是基於取代數十年根深蒂固的王朝政治的承諾。

"I will live and die in Pakistan," Khan said in a statement shared by his lawyers. "I will fight for my country's freedom until my last breath, and I expect my nation to do the same."

汗在他的律師分享的聲明中說：“我將在巴基斯坦生活和死亡。” “我將為祖國的自由而戰，直到最後一口氣，我希望我的國家也能這樣做。”