Hog Futures（HEJ25）市场在侧向范围内的价格上涨

在3月初发布了强劲的反弹之后，在过去几周内，Lean Hog Futures（HEJ25）市场在过去几周的侧向范围内占有价格股票。

The lean hog futures (HEJ25) market has seen prices chop in a sideways range over the past couple of weeks, after posting a strong rebound in early March. It appears hog traders are presently trying to decide if bullish domestic supply and demand elements can overcome the bearish prospect of reduced U.S. pork exports amid a major trade spat between the U.S. and other major countries.

在3月初发布了强劲的反弹之后，在过去几周内，Lean Hog Futures（HEJ25）市场在过去几周的侧向范围内占有价格股票。看来，在美国和其他主要国家之间的主要贸易争端中，养猪交易者目前正在尝试决定看涨的国内供应因素是否可以克服减少美国猪肉出口的前景。

The China Tariffs

中国关税

The 800-pound gorilla in the room for the hog market is U.S. pork exports to China. After the U.S. announced new tariffs on China and other countries in early March, China retaliated and imposed additional duties on U.S. agricultural products, affecting shipments leaving the U.S. after March 10 and arriving in China by April 12. The new tariffs include a 10% duty on a broad range of goods, including soybeans (ZSK25), pork, beef, dairy, and fruits. China was the third-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in 2024. Historically, China has accounted for a significant share of U.S. exports in several categories, including frozen swine carcasses (96%). Nearly all affected products (97%) were already subject to previous retaliatory tariffs dating back to 2018 and 2020, with some reaching as high as 55%.

猪市场房间里的800磅重的大猩猩是美国猪肉出口到中国。在3月初，美国宣布对中国和其他国家的新关税后，中国对美国农产品进行了报复并施加了其他职责，影响了3月10日之后离开美国的货物，并于4月12日到达中国。新的关税包括10％的关税，包括多种商品，包括大豆（包括大豆（ZSK25）（ZSK25），Pork，betef，Befork，Befery，Dairy，Dairy和Fruits）。中国是2024年美国农业出口的第三大市场。从历史上看，中国在包括冷冻的猪尸体（包括96％）的几种类别中占了美国出口的很大一部分。几乎所有受影响的产品（97％）已经受到以前的报复性关税，其历史可以追溯到2018年和2020年，其中一些高达55％。

Last week’s weekly USDA export sales report showed net U.S. pork sales of 18,100 MT for the 2025 marketing year — a new low for the marketing year, down 11% from the previous week and down 40% from the prior 4-week average. No major sales were reported for China. Shipments of 32,900 MT were down 2% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,000 MT), South Korea (6,200 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), China (3,400 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT).

上周的周刊USDA出口销售报告显示，美国猪肉净销售额为2025年的营销年度为18,100吨 - 营销年度的新低点，比上一周下降了11％，比前4周的平均水平下降了40％。中国没有重大销售。 32,900吨的运输量比上周下降了2％，但比前4周的平均水平增长了1％。目的地主要到墨西哥（11,000吨），韩国（6,200吨），日本（4,300吨），中国（3,400吨）和哥伦比亚（2,300吨）。

While U.S.-China trade relations are currently a major bearish element for the hog markets, the situation may not turn out to be as dire as hog futures traders have anticipated and factored into prices at present. 

尽管美国 - 中国贸易关系目前是猪市场的主要看跌因素，但这种情况可能并不像猪期货交易者所期望的那样可怕，目前将其纳入价格。

Why? A stumbling U.S. stock market, recent weaker U.S. economic data, and a downtick in U.S. consumer confidence are all putting pressure on President Donald Trump’s administration to right the economic ship soon. That could mean the U.S. backs off at least a bit, if not more, on sanctions against its major trading partners. 

为什么？美国股票市场的绊脚石，最近的美国经济数据较弱以及美国消费者信心的削弱都给唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府施加压力，要求很快纠正经济船。这可能意味着美国对对其主要贸易伙伴的制裁至少（即使不是更多的话）撤回了一点。

Trump said recently he thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the U.S. soon — a potentially positive sign of thawing U.S.-China trade relations.

特朗普最近说，他认为中国总统习近平将很快访问美国，这是解冻美国与中国贸易关系的潜在积极迹象。

Former USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber described the prospect of simultaneous U.S. trade conflicts with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union as “frankly, quite disturbing.” He underscored the importance of exports, which account for 20% of U.S. agricultural production, with key commodities like soybeans, cotton, and tree nuts relying on international markets for over half their sales. “These are critical markets for U.S. agriculture, and so it is hard to fathom … a multiple front trade war,” Glauber said, warning that retaliatory tariffs could hobble key export sectors, including corn, soy, pork, beef, and dairy.

美国农业部前首席经济学家约瑟夫·格劳伯（Joseph Glauber）描述了与加拿大，墨西哥和欧盟同时贸易冲突的前景“坦率地说，令人不安”。他强调了出口的重要性，占美国农业生产的20％的重要性，依靠国际市场的大豆，棉花和树坚果等主要商品依靠国际市场的一半以上。格劳伯说：“这些是美国农业的关键市场，因此很难理解……一场多次贸易战争。”警告说，报复性关税可能会影响包括玉米，大豆，猪肉，牛肉和奶牛在内的关键出口部门。

Domestic Hog/Pork Market Fundamentals Lean Price-Friendly

国内猪/猪肉市场基础知识友好

The cash hog (HEY00) and wholesale pork markets last week were stable, which is a good sign that both markets have put in seasonal bottoms. Hog slaughter levels typically decline this time of year, into early summer. It’s likely the pork belly market will see stronger prices in the coming months, as frozen stocks remained low through January. Also, recent USDA data suggests spring and summer hog and pork production will fall below year-ago levels. And now it won’t be long until grilling season, when retailers start to feature pork and spring/summer BLT (bacon, lettuce, tomato) ads and specials. 

上周的现金猪（Hey00）和批发猪肉市场很稳定，这是两个市场都投入季节性底层的好兆头。猪屠宰水平通常是一年中的这个时候，直到初夏。在未来几个月中，猪肚市场可能会看到更高的价格，因为冰冻的股票截至一月一直保持较低。此外，最近的美国农业部数据表明，春季和夏季的猪和猪肉的产量将低于去年同期。现在，直到烧烤季节，零售商开始以猪肉和春夏BLT（培根，生菜，番茄）广告和特色菜为特色时，它将不久。

The U.S. pork supply outlook will be updated with this week’s USDA cold storage report on Tuesday (March 25) and Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday (March 27).   

美国猪肉供应前景将在本周（3月25日）（3月25日）的USDA冷藏报告中进行更新，并在周四（3月27日）进行Hogs＆Pigs报告。

Record-High Cattle Prices Also Bullish for Hog Prices

创纪录的牛价格也看涨猪价格

Feeder cattle futures (GFK25) prices last week notched another record high. Live cattle futures (LEJ25)are also rallying and close to their record highs. USDA’s average cash cattle price this month also hit a record high. While live and feeder cattle futures markets are in very mature bull runs, they continue to show resiliency on price pullbacks. Record-high cattle prices are a bullish factor

饲养牛的期货（GFK25）上周的价格在另一个创纪录的高处。活牛期货（LEJ25）也在集会，接近他们的创纪录高点。 USDA本月的平均现金牛价格也达到了创纪录的高度。尽管活牛和饲养牛期货市场处于非常成熟的牛市状态，但它们仍会在价格下跌方面表现出弹性。创纪录的牛价格是看涨的因素