Hog Futures（HEJ25）市場在側向范圍內的價格上漲

在3月初發布了強勁的反彈之後，在過去幾週內，Lean Hog Futures（HEJ25）市場在過去幾週的側向范圍內佔有價格股票。

The lean hog futures (HEJ25) market has seen prices chop in a sideways range over the past couple of weeks, after posting a strong rebound in early March. It appears hog traders are presently trying to decide if bullish domestic supply and demand elements can overcome the bearish prospect of reduced U.S. pork exports amid a major trade spat between the U.S. and other major countries.

在3月初發布了強勁的反彈之後，在過去幾週內，Lean Hog Futures（HEJ25）市場在過去幾週的側向范圍內佔有價格股票。看來，在美國和其他主要國家之間的主要貿易爭端中，養豬交易者目前正在嘗試決定看漲的國內供應因素是否可以克服減少美國豬肉出口的前景。

The China Tariffs

中國關稅

The 800-pound gorilla in the room for the hog market is U.S. pork exports to China. After the U.S. announced new tariffs on China and other countries in early March, China retaliated and imposed additional duties on U.S. agricultural products, affecting shipments leaving the U.S. after March 10 and arriving in China by April 12. The new tariffs include a 10% duty on a broad range of goods, including soybeans (ZSK25), pork, beef, dairy, and fruits. China was the third-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in 2024. Historically, China has accounted for a significant share of U.S. exports in several categories, including frozen swine carcasses (96%). Nearly all affected products (97%) were already subject to previous retaliatory tariffs dating back to 2018 and 2020, with some reaching as high as 55%.

豬市場房間裡的800磅重的大猩猩是美國豬肉出口到中國。在3月初，美國宣布對中國和其他國家的新關稅後，中國對美國農產品進行了報復並施加了其他職責，影響了3月10日之後離開美國的貨物，並於4月12日到達中國。新的關稅包括10％的關稅，包括多種商品，包括大豆（包括大豆（ZSK25）（ZSK25），Pork，betef，Befork，Befery，Dairy，Dairy和Fruits）。中國是2024年美國農業出口的第三大市場。從歷史上看，中國在包括冷凍的豬屍體（包括96％）的幾種類別中佔了美國出口的很大一部分。幾乎所有受影響的產品（97％）已經受到以前的報復性關稅，其歷史可以追溯到2018年和2020年，其中一些高達55％。

Last week’s weekly USDA export sales report showed net U.S. pork sales of 18,100 MT for the 2025 marketing year — a new low for the marketing year, down 11% from the previous week and down 40% from the prior 4-week average. No major sales were reported for China. Shipments of 32,900 MT were down 2% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,000 MT), South Korea (6,200 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), China (3,400 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT).

上週的周刊USDA出口銷售報告顯示，美國豬肉淨銷售額為2025年的營銷年度為18,100噸 - 營銷年度的新低點，比上一周下降了11％，比前4週的平均水平下降了40％。中國沒有重大銷售。 32,900噸的運輸量比上週下降了2％，但比前4週的平均水平增長了1％。目的地主要到墨西哥（11,000噸），韓國（6,200噸），日本（4,300噸），中國（3,400噸）和哥倫比亞（2,300噸）。

While U.S.-China trade relations are currently a major bearish element for the hog markets, the situation may not turn out to be as dire as hog futures traders have anticipated and factored into prices at present. 

儘管美國 - 中國貿易關係目前是豬市場的主要看跌因素，但這種情況可能並不像豬期貨交易者所期望的那樣可怕，目前將其納入價格。

Why? A stumbling U.S. stock market, recent weaker U.S. economic data, and a downtick in U.S. consumer confidence are all putting pressure on President Donald Trump’s administration to right the economic ship soon. That could mean the U.S. backs off at least a bit, if not more, on sanctions against its major trading partners. 

為什麼？美國股票市場的絆腳石，最近的美國經濟數據較弱以及美國消費者信心的削弱都給唐納德·特朗普總統的政府施加壓力，要求很快糾正經濟船。這可能意味著美國對對其主要貿易夥伴的製裁至少（即使不是更多的話）撤回了一點。

Trump said recently he thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the U.S. soon — a potentially positive sign of thawing U.S.-China trade relations.

特朗普最近說，他認為中國總統習近平將很快訪問美國，這是解凍美國與中國貿易關係的潛在積極跡象。

Former USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber described the prospect of simultaneous U.S. trade conflicts with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union as “frankly, quite disturbing.” He underscored the importance of exports, which account for 20% of U.S. agricultural production, with key commodities like soybeans, cotton, and tree nuts relying on international markets for over half their sales. “These are critical markets for U.S. agriculture, and so it is hard to fathom … a multiple front trade war,” Glauber said, warning that retaliatory tariffs could hobble key export sectors, including corn, soy, pork, beef, and dairy.

美國農業部前首席經濟學家約瑟夫·格勞伯（Joseph Glauber）描述了與加拿大，墨西哥和歐盟同時貿易衝突的前景“坦率地說，令人不安”。他強調了出口的重要性，占美國農業生產的20％的重要性，依靠國際市場的大豆，棉花和樹堅果等主要商品依靠國際市場的一半以上。格勞伯說：“這些是美國農業的關鍵市場，因此很難理解……一場多次貿易戰爭。”警告說，報復性關稅可能會影響包括玉米，大豆，豬肉，牛肉和奶牛在內的關鍵出口部門。

Domestic Hog/Pork Market Fundamentals Lean Price-Friendly

國內豬/豬肉市場基礎知識友好

The cash hog (HEY00) and wholesale pork markets last week were stable, which is a good sign that both markets have put in seasonal bottoms. Hog slaughter levels typically decline this time of year, into early summer. It’s likely the pork belly market will see stronger prices in the coming months, as frozen stocks remained low through January. Also, recent USDA data suggests spring and summer hog and pork production will fall below year-ago levels. And now it won’t be long until grilling season, when retailers start to feature pork and spring/summer BLT (bacon, lettuce, tomato) ads and specials. 

上週的現金豬（Hey00）和批發豬肉市場很穩定，這是兩個市場都投入季節性底層的好兆頭。豬屠宰水平通常是一年中的這個時候，直到初夏。在未來幾個月中，豬肚市場可能會看到更高的價格，因為冰凍的股票截至一月一直保持較低。此外，最近的美國農業部數據表明，春季和夏季的豬和豬肉的產量將低於去年同期。現在，直到燒烤季節，零售商開始以豬肉和春夏BLT（培根，生菜，番茄）廣告和特色菜為特色時，它將不久。

The U.S. pork supply outlook will be updated with this week’s USDA cold storage report on Tuesday (March 25) and Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday (March 27).   

美國豬肉供應前景將在本週（3月25日）（3月25日）的USDA冷藏報告中進行更新，並在周四（3月27日）進行Hogs＆Pigs報告。

Record-High Cattle Prices Also Bullish for Hog Prices

創紀錄的牛價格也看漲豬價格

Feeder cattle futures (GFK25) prices last week notched another record high. Live cattle futures (LEJ25)are also rallying and close to their record highs. USDA’s average cash cattle price this month also hit a record high. While live and feeder cattle futures markets are in very mature bull runs, they continue to show resiliency on price pullbacks. Record-high cattle prices are a bullish factor

飼養牛的期貨（GFK25）上週的價格在另一個創紀錄的高處。活牛期貨（LEJ25）也在集會，接近他們的創紀錄高點。 USDA本月的平均現金牛價格也達到了創紀錄的高度。儘管活牛和飼養牛期貨市場處於非常成熟的牛市狀態，但它們仍會在價格下跌方面表現出彈性。創紀錄的牛價格是看漲的因素