Hog Futures (HEJ25) Market Has Seen Prices Chop in a Sideways Range

The lean hog futures (HEJ25) market has seen prices chop in a sideways range over the past couple of weeks, after posting a strong rebound in early March.

The lean hog futures (HEJ25) market has seen prices chop in a sideways range over the past couple of weeks, after posting a strong rebound in early March. It appears hog traders are presently trying to decide if bullish domestic supply and demand elements can overcome the bearish prospect of reduced U.S. pork exports amid a major trade spat between the U.S. and other major countries.

The China Tariffs

The 800-pound gorilla in the room for the hog market is U.S. pork exports to China. After the U.S. announced new tariffs on China and other countries in early March, China retaliated and imposed additional duties on U.S. agricultural products, affecting shipments leaving the U.S. after March 10 and arriving in China by April 12. The new tariffs include a 10% duty on a broad range of goods, including soybeans (ZSK25), pork, beef, dairy, and fruits. China was the third-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in 2024. Historically, China has accounted for a significant share of U.S. exports in several categories, including frozen swine carcasses (96%). Nearly all affected products (97%) were already subject to previous retaliatory tariffs dating back to 2018 and 2020, with some reaching as high as 55%.

Last week’s weekly USDA export sales report showed net U.S. pork sales of 18,100 MT for the 2025 marketing year — a new low for the marketing year, down 11% from the previous week and down 40% from the prior 4-week average. No major sales were reported for China. Shipments of 32,900 MT were down 2% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,000 MT), South Korea (6,200 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), China (3,400 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT).

While U.S.-China trade relations are currently a major bearish element for the hog markets, the situation may not turn out to be as dire as hog futures traders have anticipated and factored into prices at present. 

Why? A stumbling U.S. stock market, recent weaker U.S. economic data, and a downtick in U.S. consumer confidence are all putting pressure on President Donald Trump’s administration to right the economic ship soon. That could mean the U.S. backs off at least a bit, if not more, on sanctions against its major trading partners. 

Trump said recently he thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the U.S. soon — a potentially positive sign of thawing U.S.-China trade relations.

Former USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber described the prospect of simultaneous U.S. trade conflicts with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union as “frankly, quite disturbing.” He underscored the importance of exports, which account for 20% of U.S. agricultural production, with key commodities like soybeans, cotton, and tree nuts relying on international markets for over half their sales. “These are critical markets for U.S. agriculture, and so it is hard to fathom … a multiple front trade war,” Glauber said, warning that retaliatory tariffs could hobble key export sectors, including corn, soy, pork, beef, and dairy.

Domestic Hog/Pork Market Fundamentals Lean Price-Friendly

The cash hog (HEY00) and wholesale pork markets last week were stable, which is a good sign that both markets have put in seasonal bottoms. Hog slaughter levels typically decline this time of year, into early summer. It’s likely the pork belly market will see stronger prices in the coming months, as frozen stocks remained low through January. Also, recent USDA data suggests spring and summer hog and pork production will fall below year-ago levels. And now it won’t be long until grilling season, when retailers start to feature pork and spring/summer BLT (bacon, lettuce, tomato) ads and specials. 

The U.S. pork supply outlook will be updated with this week’s USDA cold storage report on Tuesday (March 25) and Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday (March 27).   

Record-High Cattle Prices Also Bullish for Hog Prices

Feeder cattle futures (GFK25) prices last week notched another record high. Live cattle futures (LEJ25)are also rallying and close to their record highs. USDA’s average cash cattle price this month also hit a record high. While live and feeder cattle futures markets are in very mature bull runs, they continue to show resiliency on price pullbacks. Record-high cattle prices are a bullish factor