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CoinShares 数字资产分析师 Matthew Kimmel 表示,对于投资者来说,ETH 的未来取决于以太坊如何平衡创新与维持健康的经济政策。
Over the years, Ethereum's ability to host a wide range of applications and assets has been evident, but the investment case for its native token, ETH, has become increasingly complex. In the wake of key protocol changes, particularly the hardforks activating EIP-1559 and EIP-4844, investors are asking how Ethereum’s adoption will translate into ETH's long-term value.
多年来,以太坊托管各种应用程序和资产的能力已经显而易见,但其原生代币 ETH 的投资案例却变得越来越复杂。随着关键协议的变化,特别是激活 EIP-1559 和 EIP-4844 的硬分叉,投资者正在询问以太坊的采用将如何转化为 ETH 的长期价值。
While the platform has scaled, the relationship between its growth and ETH's supply and demand — and thus its price — is no longer as straightforward as it once seemed.
尽管该平台已经规模化,但其增长与 ETH 供需之间的关系(以及其价格)不再像以前看起来那么简单。
The EIP-1559 revolution: linking utility to token valueWhen Ethereum implemented EIP-1559 in 2021, it introduced a burn mechanism where the overwhelming majority of transaction fees (base fees) are permanently removed from circulation. This created a direct relationship between Ethereum usage and ETH's supply. As users pay for transactions on the Ethereum network, the burn acts as a deflationary force, reducing ETH's supply and putting upward pressure on its price.
EIP-1559 革命:将效用与代币价值联系起来当以太坊在 2021 年实施 EIP-1559 时,它引入了一种销毁机制,其中绝大多数交易费用(基本费用)将被永久从流通中删除。这在以太坊使用和 ETH 供应之间建立了直接关系。当用户在以太坊网络上为交易付费时,销毁会起到通缩的作用,减少 ETH 的供应并对其价格施加上行压力。
In 2023, our valuation model at CoinShares showed that under the right conditions, where Ethereum generates $10 billion annually in L1 transaction fees, something it achieved at its 2021 heights, ETH could reach a value near $8,000 by 2028.
2023 年,我们在 CoinShares 的估值模型显示,在适当的条件下,以太坊每年产生 100 亿美元的 L1 交易费用(在 2021 年达到顶峰),到 2028 年,ETH 的价值可能会达到接近 8,000 美元。
Since then, however, optimism has waned due to the Dencun hardfork and the rise of Layer-2s (L2s), which have upended the fee burn and altered ETH's value potential.
然而,自那以后,由于 Dencun 硬分叉和 Layer-2(L2)的兴起,乐观情绪逐渐减弱,这颠覆了费用消耗并改变了 ETH 的价值潜力。
The rise of layer-2s: a double-edged swordL2 platforms were designed to scale Ethereum by moving transactions off the main chain (L1) and onto faster, cheaper networks. Initially, L2s complemented L1, helping the network handle more transactions without clogging the base chain — like a pressure release valve giving balance in times of high usage.
Layer-2 的兴起:一把双刃剑L2 平台旨在通过将交易从主链 (L1) 转移到更快、更便宜的网络来扩展以太坊。最初,L2 是对 L1 的补充,帮助网络处理更多交易而不堵塞基础链——就像压力释放阀在高使用率时提供平衡。
But with the introduction of “blob space” in 2024, L2s could now settle transactions on L1 at much lower costs, reducing their requirement to pay expensive L1 fees. As more activity migrated to L2s, the supply burn that EIP-1559 was designed to instill began to drop, weakening the downward pressure on ETH's supply.
但随着 2024 年“blob 空间”的引入,L2 现在可以以低得多的成本在 L1 上结算交易,从而减少了支付昂贵的 L1 费用的要求。随着更多活动迁移到 L2,EIP-1559 旨在灌输的供应消耗开始下降,削弱了 ETH 供应的下行压力。
The reality of Ethereum generating high L1 fees to support ETH's value is now looking bleak. L1 transaction fees have steadily collapsed, leading to questions about what differentiates the services offered at each layer, and what will drive the L1 fee landscape moving forward.
以太坊产生高额 L1 费用来支撑 ETH 价值的现实现在看起来很黯淡。 L1 交易费用稳步下降,引发了人们对每一层提供的服务有何不同,以及什么将推动 L1 费用格局向前发展的疑问。
A path forward: restoring the burn or adapting to new realitiesDespite these challenges, there are potential paths forward to restore demand for L1 transactions and, in turn, ETH valuation.
前进的道路:恢复燃烧或适应新的现实尽管存在这些挑战,但仍有潜在的前进道路来恢复对 L1 交易的需求,进而恢复 ETH 估值。
One option is developing high-value use cases that rely on L1's security and reliability, yet, given current trends, this appears unlikely in the near future. Another possibility is that L2 adoption grows so rapidly that the sheer volume of transactions compensates for the discounted fees — but this would require extraordinary L2 growth, beyond near-term expectations.
一种选择是开发依赖 L1 安全性和可靠性的高价值用例,但鉴于当前趋势,这在不久的将来似乎不太可能。另一种可能性是,L2 的采用增长如此之快,以至于交易量的绝对值足以弥补折扣费用——但这需要 L2 的非凡增长,超出近期预期。
The most likely, and perhaps the most controversial, solution is repricing blob space to increase L2 settlement fees. While this would restore some of the L1 supply burn, it risks upsetting the economics of L2s that have been key to Ethereum's recent success and enhanced its ability to compete as an ecosystem with alternative platforms (like Solana, Binance Chain, etc.).
最有可能,也可能是最具争议的解决方案是重新定价 blob 空间以增加 L2 结算费用。虽然这将恢复部分 L1 供应消耗,但它可能会扰乱 L2 的经济性,而 L2 是以太坊近期成功的关键,并增强了其作为生态系统与替代平台(如 Solana、币安链等)竞争的能力。
The uncertain future of ETHWhile L2s have scaled Ethereum, they have also disoriented the mechanisms that tie ETH's value to its utility. For investors, this means that ETH's future depends on how Ethereum balances innovation with maintaining healthy economic policy.
ETH 不确定的未来虽然 L2 扩展了以太坊,但它们也扰乱了将 ETH 的价值与其效用联系起来的机制。对于投资者来说,这意味着 ETH 的未来取决于以太坊如何平衡创新与维持健康的经济政策。
For now, ETH's investment case is unsettling, and risks remain high as the Ethereum community decides its path forward.
目前,ETH 的投资情况令人不安,随着以太坊社区决定其前进道路,风险仍然很高。
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