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CoinShares 數位資產分析師 Matthew Kimmel 表示,對投資人來說,ETH 的未來取決於以太坊如何平衡創新與維持健康的經濟政策。
Over the years, Ethereum's ability to host a wide range of applications and assets has been evident, but the investment case for its native token, ETH, has become increasingly complex. In the wake of key protocol changes, particularly the hardforks activating EIP-1559 and EIP-4844, investors are asking how Ethereum’s adoption will translate into ETH's long-term value.
多年來,以太坊託管各種應用程式和資產的能力已經顯而易見,但其原生代幣 ETH 的投資案例卻變得越來越複雜。隨著關鍵協議的變化,特別是激活 EIP-1559 和 EIP-4844 的硬分叉,投資者正在詢問以太坊的採用將如何轉化為 ETH 的長期價值。
While the platform has scaled, the relationship between its growth and ETH's supply and demand — and thus its price — is no longer as straightforward as it once seemed.
儘管該平台已經規模化,但其成長與 ETH 供需之間的關係(以及其價格)不再像以前看起來那麼簡單。
The EIP-1559 revolution: linking utility to token valueWhen Ethereum implemented EIP-1559 in 2021, it introduced a burn mechanism where the overwhelming majority of transaction fees (base fees) are permanently removed from circulation. This created a direct relationship between Ethereum usage and ETH's supply. As users pay for transactions on the Ethereum network, the burn acts as a deflationary force, reducing ETH's supply and putting upward pressure on its price.
EIP-1559 革命:將效用與代幣價值連結起來當以太坊在2021 年實施EIP-1559 時,它引入了一種銷毀機制,其中絕大多數交易費用(基本費用)將永久從流通中刪除。這在以太坊使用和 ETH 供應之間建立了直接關係。當用戶在以太坊網路上為交付付費時,銷毀會起到通貨緊縮的作用,減少 ETH 的供應並對其價格施加上行壓力。
In 2023, our valuation model at CoinShares showed that under the right conditions, where Ethereum generates $10 billion annually in L1 transaction fees, something it achieved at its 2021 heights, ETH could reach a value near $8,000 by 2028.
2023 年,我們在CoinShares 的估值模型顯示,在適當的條件下,以太坊每年產生100 億美元的L1 交易費用(在2021 年達到頂峰),到2028 年,ETH 的價值可能會達到接近8,000 美元。
Since then, however, optimism has waned due to the Dencun hardfork and the rise of Layer-2s (L2s), which have upended the fee burn and altered ETH's value potential.
然而,自那以後,由於 Dencun 硬分叉和 Layer-2(L2)的興起,樂觀情緒逐漸減弱,顛覆了費用消耗並改變了 ETH 的價值潛力。
The rise of layer-2s: a double-edged swordL2 platforms were designed to scale Ethereum by moving transactions off the main chain (L1) and onto faster, cheaper networks. Initially, L2s complemented L1, helping the network handle more transactions without clogging the base chain — like a pressure release valve giving balance in times of high usage.
Layer-2 的興起:一把雙面刃L2 平台旨在透過將交易從主鏈 (L1) 轉移到更快、更便宜的網路來擴展以太坊。最初,L2 是 L1 的補充,幫助網路處理更多交易而不堵塞基礎鏈——就像壓力釋放閥在高使用率時提供平衡。
But with the introduction of “blob space” in 2024, L2s could now settle transactions on L1 at much lower costs, reducing their requirement to pay expensive L1 fees. As more activity migrated to L2s, the supply burn that EIP-1559 was designed to instill began to drop, weakening the downward pressure on ETH's supply.
但隨著 2024 年「blob 空間」的引入,L2 現在可以以低得多的成本在 L1 上結算交易,從而減少了支付昂貴的 L1 費用的要求。隨著更多活動遷移到 L2,EIP-1559 旨在灌輸的供應消耗開始下降,削弱了 ETH 供應的下行壓力。
The reality of Ethereum generating high L1 fees to support ETH's value is now looking bleak. L1 transaction fees have steadily collapsed, leading to questions about what differentiates the services offered at each layer, and what will drive the L1 fee landscape moving forward.
以太坊產生高額 L1 費用來支撐 ETH 價值的現實現在看起來很黯淡。 L1 交易費用穩定下降,引發了人們對每一層提供的服務有何不同,以及什麼將推動 L1 費用格局向前發展的疑問。
A path forward: restoring the burn or adapting to new realitiesDespite these challenges, there are potential paths forward to restore demand for L1 transactions and, in turn, ETH valuation.
前進的道路:恢復燃燒或適應新的現實儘管存在這些挑戰,但仍有潛在的前進道路來恢復對 L1 交易的需求,進而恢復 ETH 估值。
One option is developing high-value use cases that rely on L1's security and reliability, yet, given current trends, this appears unlikely in the near future. Another possibility is that L2 adoption grows so rapidly that the sheer volume of transactions compensates for the discounted fees — but this would require extraordinary L2 growth, beyond near-term expectations.
一種選擇是開發依賴 L1 安全性和可靠性的高價值用例,但鑑於當前趨勢,這在不久的將來似乎不太可能。另一種可能性是,L2 的採用增長如此之快,以至於交易量的絕對值足以彌補折扣費用——但這需要 L2 的非凡增長,超出近期預期。
The most likely, and perhaps the most controversial, solution is repricing blob space to increase L2 settlement fees. While this would restore some of the L1 supply burn, it risks upsetting the economics of L2s that have been key to Ethereum's recent success and enhanced its ability to compete as an ecosystem with alternative platforms (like Solana, Binance Chain, etc.).
最有可能,也可能是最具爭議的解決方案是重新定價 blob 空間以增加 L2 結算費用。雖然這將恢復部分L1 供應消耗,但它可能會擾亂L2 的經濟性,而L2 是以太坊近期成功的關鍵,並增強了其作為生態系統與替代平台(如Solana、幣安鍊等)競爭的能力。
The uncertain future of ETHWhile L2s have scaled Ethereum, they have also disoriented the mechanisms that tie ETH's value to its utility. For investors, this means that ETH's future depends on how Ethereum balances innovation with maintaining healthy economic policy.
ETH 不確定的未來雖然 L2 擴展了以太坊,但它們也擾亂了將 ETH 的價值與其效用聯繫起來的機制。對投資者來說,這意味著 ETH 的未來取決於以太坊如何平衡創新與維持健康的經濟政策。
For now, ETH's investment case is unsettling, and risks remain high as the Ethereum community decides its path forward.
目前,ETH 的投資情況令人不安,隨著以太坊社群決定其前進道路,風險仍然很高。
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