美国债务上限回归，但过去的经验表明这可能对比特币（BTC）和风险资产有利

有些问题永远不会真正消失，美国债务上限就是其中之一，它限制了政府可以借入的最高金额。

The United States will hit its roughly $36 trillion debt limit on Tuesday, meaning it cannot borrow any more from the public to fund its operations, according to an official announcement from outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday.

即将离任的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 周五正式宣布，美国将于周二达到约 36 万亿美元的债务上限，这意味着美国无法再向公众借款为其运营提供资金。

The debt limit does not authorize any new spending, but it creates a risk that the federal government might not be able to finance its existing legal obligations that Congresses and Presidents of both parties have made in the past, the announcement noted.

公告指出，债务限额并不授权任何新的支出，但它带来了联邦政府可能无法为其国会和两党总统过去所承担的现有法律义务提供资金的风险。

"As a result, I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," Yellen said in the statement.

耶伦在声明中表示：“因此，我谨敦促国会迅速采取行动，保护美国的充分信任和信誉。”

The very thought of the world's largest economy unable to borrow any more might scare investors, but it's important to note that a default and government shutdown won't happen immediately. Yellen has previously said that the Treasury will implement "extraordinary measures" from Tuesday, buying time at least till March 14.

全球最大经济体无法再借贷的想法可能会吓到投资者，但值得注意的是，违约和政府关闭不会立即发生。耶伦此前曾表示，财政部将从周二开始实施“非常措施”，争取至少到3月14日的时间。

One potential measure could be running down the Treasury General Account (TGA), the government's operating account at the Fed used to collect taxes, customs duties, proceeds from the sale of securities, and public debt receipts while facilitating government payments.

一项可能的措施可能是减少财政部普通账户（TGA），这是政府在美联储的运营账户，用于征收税收、关税、证券销售收益和公共债务收入，同时促进政府支付。

The previous debt ceiling episode of early 2023, which involved using TGA to meet expenses, had a positive impact on risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). That's because when the government spends the TGA balance, the cash goes to bank accounts of various entities, like contractors, employers and others, at commercial banks. That boosts the amount of reserves held by commercial banks. With more reserves, they have a better capacity to lend money, potentially increasing lending or investment in the broader economy and financial markets.

2023 年初的债务上限事件涉及使用 TGA 来支付费用，这对包括比特币 (BTC) 在内的风险资产产生了积极影响。这是因为当政府花费 TGA 余额时，现金会进入商业银行的各种实体的银行账户，例如承包商、雇主和其他实体。这增加了商业银行持有的准备金数额。有了更多的储备，他们就有更好的放贷能力，有可能增加对更广泛的经济和金融市场的贷款或投资。

As of Monday, the balance of the Treasury General Account was $677 billion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The chart below illustrates Bitcoin's price alongside changes in the TGA balance over the past five years. Notably, drawdowns in the TGA have frequently coincided with bitcoin bull runs, suggesting the inverse correlation between the two.

根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据，截至周一，财政部普通账户余额为 6,770 亿美元。下图显示了过去五年中比特币的价格以及 TGA 余额的变化。值得注意的是，TGA 的回撤经常与比特币牛市同时发生，这表明两者之间存在负相关性。