历史数据表明，比特币的价格通常在4月平均增加12.98％。

结果，加密货币社区经常将4月视为比特币特别有利和令人印象深刻的月份 - 有些人幽默地将其称为“ Upril”。

April usually brings a smile to the faces of crypto investors, as historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price used to rise by an average of 12.98% during this month.

4月通常给加密投资者的面孔带来微笑，因为历史数据表明，本月比特币的价格过去平均上涨了12.98％。

As a result, members of the crypto community often view April as a particularly favorable and impressive month for Bitcoin – some humorously dubbing it “Upril.” However, the market’s recent downturn despite multiple bullish developments, such as a crypto-friendly stance from the new U.S. administration, the recent Bitcoin halving, and ETF approvals, has significantly dampened investor confidence.

结果，加密货币社区的成员通常将4月视为比特币特别有利和令人印象深刻的月份 - 有些人幽默地将其称为“ Upril”。但是，尽管有多种看涨发展，该市场最近的下滑，例如新美国政府的加密友好型立场，最近的比特币减半以及ETF批准，严重削弱了投资者的信心。

Many now question whether the market will truly rebound this April as historically expected.April Will be a Point for a New CycleLooking deeper into historical data, Bitcoin’s average return in April is as high as 34.7%, second only to November. This evidence suggests that if an investor purchases Bitcoin in late March or early April, they stand a relatively strong chance of achieving notable returns.

现在，许多人质疑市场是否会像历史上预期的那样在今年4月真正反弹。4月将是一个新的Cyclelook更深入历史数据的一点，比特币在4月的平均收益高达34.7％，仅次于11月。该证据表明，如果投资者在3月下旬或4月初购买比特币，那么他们有很大的机会获得可观的回报。

Moreover, according to data from CryptoRank, the median return for Bitcoin in April is approximately 5.32%, highlighting a high probability of positive market performance during this period.

此外，根据Cryptorank的数据，4月的比特币中位回报率约为5.32％，突出了此期间市场表现正阳性的可能性。

Source: CryptorankAlthough using historical data to predict future market movements is not entirely accurate, cyclical patterns remain important indicators for the crypto community and broader markets.

资料来源：Cryptorankal，尽管使用历史数据来预测未来的市场运动并不是完全准确的，因此，周期性模式仍然是加密社区和更广泛的市场的重要指标。

“Seasonality factors typically aren’t reliable as standalone indicators. However, historical data gains greater credibility when combined with other market signals,” noted Omkar Godbole, an analyst at CoinDesk.

Coindesk的分析师Omkar Godbole指出：“季节性因素通常并不可靠。但是，与其他市场信号结合使用时，历史数据获得了更大的信誉。”

In his annual letter to investors, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighted the mounting debt burden faced by the United States, emphasizing that interest payments alone now exceed 952 billion USD.

贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）在给投资者的年度信中强调了美国面临的债务负担，强调仅利息支付现在超过9520亿美元。

According to Fink, the U.S. may need to raise tariffs or corporate taxes to protect the dollar’s strength. However, such measures may hurt confidence in the USD, pushing investors toward assets like Bitcoin.

根据芬克的说法，美国可能需要提高关税或公司税，以保护美元的实力。但是，此类措施可能会损害对美元的信心，从而使投资者推向像比特币这样的资产。

According to reports from BlockDevs, the investment mogul stated: “We are now seeing a return to macroeconomic concerns, particularly focused on the U.S. due to its role in the global financial system.”

根据Blockdevs的报道，投资大亨说：“我们现在看到了宏观经济问题的重返，尤其是由于其在全球金融体系中的作用而着重于美国。”

“If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, we may see a return to macroeconomic concerns, and the dollar could lose its reserve currency status, paving the way for another asset to take its place – perhaps Bitcoin.”

“如果美国没有控制债务，我们可能会看到宏观经济问题的回报，而且美元可能会失去其储备货币状况，为另一个资产取代其代替其 - 也许是比特币铺平了道路。”

Earlier, in January 2024, when discussing the possibility of investing in cryptocurrencies with Yale students, Fink mentioned that a major investment fund is actively considering allocating between 2% and 5% of its portfolio to Bitcoin.

早些时候，在2024年1月，在与耶鲁大学的学生讨论了对加密货币进行投资的可能性时，Fink提到主要投资基金正在积极考虑将其投资组合的2％至5％分配给比特币。

At the same time, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has seen an impressive 50 billion USD inflow in just 15 months since its launch in January 2024, highlighting the strong demand from traditional financial institutions.

同时，贝莱德（Blackrock）的比特币ETF在2024年1月推出以来仅15个月内就看到了令人印象深刻的500亿美元流入，强调了传统金融机构的强劲需求。

Additionally, Bitcoin halving data shows strong post-halving growth – including a 686% surge after the third halving. However, despite the recent halving, Bitcoin has only risen 63% – modest compared to the previous cycle. Therefore, several analytics firms and organizations, including CryptoQuant and Strategy, suggest that BTC still has significant room for growth soon.

此外，比特币减半的数据显示出强大的备速增长 - 包括第三次减半后激增686％。然而，尽管最近减半，比特币仅增长了63％ - 与上一个周期相比，比特币谦虚。因此，包括加密和战略在内的几家分析公司和组织表明，BTC仍然很快就有很大的增长空间。

“Your lie in April”Contrary to Larry Fink’s optimistic forecasts, several experts have urged caution. They suggest the market outlook for April 2025 may not be as positive as expected.

与拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）的乐观预测相反，“您的谎言”敦促。他们建议2025年4月的市场前景可能不如预期的那样积极。

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin still maintains a bullish long-term outlook. However, short-term risks from the Mt.Gox situation continue to weigh on the market. Recently, Mt.Gox moved a large amount of Bitcoin to Kraken, raising fears of liquidations and near-term selling pressure from creditors.

根据Omkar Godbole的说法，比特币仍然保持看涨的长期前景。但是，MT.GOX局势的短期风险继续在市场上打击。最近，山顶将大量比特币移至Kraken，这引起了人们对清算的担忧，并向债权人带来了近期的销售压力。

The fallout from the Mt.Gox case may escalate further if it negatively impacts retail investor sentiment. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently stated that Bitcoin’s price could potentially decline sharply to around 70,000 USD if ETF outflows hit the critical threshold of 30 billion USD— a clear indicator of widespread fear among retail and traditional investors.

如果MT.GOX案件的影响可能会对零售投资者的情绪产生负面影响，则可能会进一步升级。 BITMEX的前首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）最近表示，如果ETF的出现达到了300亿美元的关键门槛，比特币的价格可能会急剧下降到70,000美元左右，这是零售和传统投资者广泛恐惧的明显指标。

Analysts from Glassnode echoed Hayes’s concerns, emphasizing that significant ETF outflows could indeed push Bitcoin back toward 70,000 USD.

来自GlassNode的分析师回应了Hayes的关注点，强调大量ETF流出确实可以将比特币恢复到70,000美元。

Negative sentiment is increasingly noticeable among market participants, with some investors pointing out the seasonal pattern often referred to as “Sell in May.” Even if Bitcoin experiences substantial gains in April, caution remains warranted.

在市场参与者中，负面情绪越来越明显，一些投资者指出季节性模式通常被称为“五月卖出”。即使比特币在四月经历了可观的收益，仍然有必要谨慎行事。

The 2021 market cycle offers a historical precedent: After reaching its peak in April, Bitcoin’s price dramatically declined in May. Analyst Oinonen from CryptoQuant similarly cautioned that early summer 2025 might see subdued market activity or an extended correction period as investors capitalize on gains from preceding months.

2021年市场周期提供了一个历史先例：在4月达到顶峰之后，比特币的价格在5月急剧下降。 CryptoQuant的分析师Oinonen同样警告说，2025年初的夏季夏季可能会看到市场活动柔和或更长的更正期，因为投资者利用了前几个月的收益。

BTC may experience a short-term pullback before preparing for a stronger rally – Source: Onionen.

BTC可能会在准备更强大的集会之前经历短期回调 - 来源：Onionen。

Additionally, bearish analysts highlight ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties as significant

此外，看跌分析师强调了正在进行的地缘政治紧张局势和全球经济不确定性是重大的