歷史數據表明，比特幣的價格通常在4月平均增加12.98％。

結果，加密貨幣社區經常將4月視為比特幣特別有利和令人印象深刻的月份 - 有些人幽默地將其稱為“ Upril”。

April usually brings a smile to the faces of crypto investors, as historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price used to rise by an average of 12.98% during this month.

4月通常給加密投資者的面孔帶來微笑，因為歷史數據表明，本月比特幣的價格過去平均上漲了12.98％。

As a result, members of the crypto community often view April as a particularly favorable and impressive month for Bitcoin – some humorously dubbing it “Upril.” However, the market’s recent downturn despite multiple bullish developments, such as a crypto-friendly stance from the new U.S. administration, the recent Bitcoin halving, and ETF approvals, has significantly dampened investor confidence.

結果，加密貨幣社區的成員通常將4月視為比特幣特別有利和令人印象深刻的月份 - 有些人幽默地將其稱為“ Upril”。但是，儘管有多種看漲發展，該市場最近的下滑，例如新美國政府的加密友好型立場，最近的比特幣減半以及ETF批准，嚴重削弱了投資者的信心。

Many now question whether the market will truly rebound this April as historically expected.April Will be a Point for a New CycleLooking deeper into historical data, Bitcoin’s average return in April is as high as 34.7%, second only to November. This evidence suggests that if an investor purchases Bitcoin in late March or early April, they stand a relatively strong chance of achieving notable returns.

現在，許多人質疑市場是否會像歷史上預期的那樣在今年4月真正反彈。 4月將是一個新的Cyclelook更深入歷史數據的一點，比特幣在4月的平均收益高達34.7％，僅次於11月。該證據表明，如果投資者在3月下旬或4月初購買比特幣，那麼他們有很大的機會獲得可觀的回報。

Moreover, according to data from CryptoRank, the median return for Bitcoin in April is approximately 5.32%, highlighting a high probability of positive market performance during this period.

此外，根據Cryptorank的數據，4月的比特幣中位回報率約為5.32％，突出了此期間市場表現正陽性的可能性。

Source: CryptorankAlthough using historical data to predict future market movements is not entirely accurate, cyclical patterns remain important indicators for the crypto community and broader markets.

資料來源：Cryptorankal，儘管使用歷史數據來預測未來的市場運動並不是完全準確的，因此，週期性模式仍然是加密社區和更廣泛的市場的重要指標。

“Seasonality factors typically aren’t reliable as standalone indicators. However, historical data gains greater credibility when combined with other market signals,” noted Omkar Godbole, an analyst at CoinDesk.

Coindesk的分析師Omkar Godbole指出：“季節性因素通常並不可靠。但是，與其他市場信號結合使用時，歷史數據獲得了更大的信譽。”

In his annual letter to investors, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighted the mounting debt burden faced by the United States, emphasizing that interest payments alone now exceed 952 billion USD.

貝萊德首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）在給投資者的年度信中強調了美國面臨的債務負擔，強調僅利息支付現在超過9520億美元。

According to Fink, the U.S. may need to raise tariffs or corporate taxes to protect the dollar’s strength. However, such measures may hurt confidence in the USD, pushing investors toward assets like Bitcoin.

根據芬克的說法，美國可能需要提高關稅或公司稅，以保護美元的實力。但是，此類措施可能會損害對美元的信心，從而使投資者推向像比特幣這樣的資產。

According to reports from BlockDevs, the investment mogul stated: “We are now seeing a return to macroeconomic concerns, particularly focused on the U.S. due to its role in the global financial system.”

根據Blockdevs的報導，投資大亨說：“我們現在看到了宏觀經濟問題的重返，尤其是由於其在全球金融體系中的作用而著重於美國。”

“If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, we may see a return to macroeconomic concerns, and the dollar could lose its reserve currency status, paving the way for another asset to take its place – perhaps Bitcoin.”

“如果美國沒有控制債務，我們可能會看到宏觀經濟問題的回報，而且美元可能會失去其儲備貨幣狀況，為另一個資產取代其代替其 - 也許是比特幣鋪平了道路。”

Earlier, in January 2024, when discussing the possibility of investing in cryptocurrencies with Yale students, Fink mentioned that a major investment fund is actively considering allocating between 2% and 5% of its portfolio to Bitcoin.

早些時候，在2024年1月，在與耶魯大學的學生討論了對加密貨幣進行投資的可能性時，Fink提到主要投資基金正在積極考慮將其投資組合的2％至5％分配給比特幣。

At the same time, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has seen an impressive 50 billion USD inflow in just 15 months since its launch in January 2024, highlighting the strong demand from traditional financial institutions.

同時，貝萊德（Blackrock）的比特幣ETF在2024年1月推出以來僅15個月內就看到了令人印象深刻的500億美元流入，強調了傳統金融機構的強勁需求。

Additionally, Bitcoin halving data shows strong post-halving growth – including a 686% surge after the third halving. However, despite the recent halving, Bitcoin has only risen 63% – modest compared to the previous cycle. Therefore, several analytics firms and organizations, including CryptoQuant and Strategy, suggest that BTC still has significant room for growth soon.

此外，比特幣減半的數據顯示出強大的備速增長 - 包括第三次減半後激增686％。然而，儘管最近減半，比特幣僅增長了63％ - 與上一個週期相比，比特幣謙虛。因此，包括加密和戰略在內的幾家分析公司和組織表明，BTC仍然很快就有很大的增長空間。

“Your lie in April”Contrary to Larry Fink’s optimistic forecasts, several experts have urged caution. They suggest the market outlook for April 2025 may not be as positive as expected.

與拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）的樂觀預測相反，“您的謊言”敦促。他們建議2025年4月的市場前景可能不如預期的那樣積極。

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin still maintains a bullish long-term outlook. However, short-term risks from the Mt.Gox situation continue to weigh on the market. Recently, Mt.Gox moved a large amount of Bitcoin to Kraken, raising fears of liquidations and near-term selling pressure from creditors.

根據Omkar Godbole的說法，比特幣仍然保持看漲的長期前景。但是，MT.GOX局勢的短期風險繼續在市場上打擊。最近，山頂將大量比特幣移至Kraken，這引起了人們對清算的擔憂，並向債權人帶來了近期的銷售壓力。

The fallout from the Mt.Gox case may escalate further if it negatively impacts retail investor sentiment. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently stated that Bitcoin’s price could potentially decline sharply to around 70,000 USD if ETF outflows hit the critical threshold of 30 billion USD— a clear indicator of widespread fear among retail and traditional investors.

如果MT.GOX案件的影響可能會對零售投資者的情緒產生負面影響，則可能會進一步升級。 BITMEX的前首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）最近表示，如果ETF的出現達到了300億美元的關鍵門檻，比特幣的價格可能會急劇下降到70,000美元左右，這是零售和傳統投資者廣泛恐懼的明顯指標。

Analysts from Glassnode echoed Hayes’s concerns, emphasizing that significant ETF outflows could indeed push Bitcoin back toward 70,000 USD.

來自GlassNode的分析師回應了Hayes的關注點，強調大量ETF流出確實可以將比特幣恢復到70,000美元。

Negative sentiment is increasingly noticeable among market participants, with some investors pointing out the seasonal pattern often referred to as “Sell in May.” Even if Bitcoin experiences substantial gains in April, caution remains warranted.

在市場參與者中，負面情緒越來越明顯，一些投資者指出季節性模式通常被稱為“五月賣出”。即使比特幣在四月經歷了可觀的收益，仍然有必要謹慎行事。

The 2021 market cycle offers a historical precedent: After reaching its peak in April, Bitcoin’s price dramatically declined in May. Analyst Oinonen from CryptoQuant similarly cautioned that early summer 2025 might see subdued market activity or an extended correction period as investors capitalize on gains from preceding months.

2021年市場週期提供了一個歷史先例：在4月達到頂峰之後，比特幣的價格在5月急劇下降。 CryptoQuant的分析師Oinonen同樣警告說，2025年初的夏季夏季可能會看到市場活動柔和或更長的更正期，因為投資者利用了前幾個月的收益。

BTC may experience a short-term pullback before preparing for a stronger rally – Source: Onionen.

BTC可能會在準備更強大的集會之前經歷短期回調 - 來源：Onionen。

Additionally, bearish analysts highlight ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties as significant

此外，看跌分析師強調了正在進行的地緣政治緊張局勢和全球經濟不確定性是重大的