Historical data indicates that Bitcoin's price typically increases by an average of 12.98% during April.

As a result, the crypto community often views April as a particularly favorable and impressive month for Bitcoin – some humorously dubbing it “Upril.”

April usually brings a smile to the faces of crypto investors, as historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price used to rise by an average of 12.98% during this month.

As a result, members of the crypto community often view April as a particularly favorable and impressive month for Bitcoin – some humorously dubbing it “Upril.” However, the market’s recent downturn despite multiple bullish developments, such as a crypto-friendly stance from the new U.S. administration, the recent Bitcoin halving, and ETF approvals, has significantly dampened investor confidence.

Many now question whether the market will truly rebound this April as historically expected.April Will be a Point for a New CycleLooking deeper into historical data, Bitcoin’s average return in April is as high as 34.7%, second only to November. This evidence suggests that if an investor purchases Bitcoin in late March or early April, they stand a relatively strong chance of achieving notable returns.

Moreover, according to data from CryptoRank, the median return for Bitcoin in April is approximately 5.32%, highlighting a high probability of positive market performance during this period.

Source: CryptorankAlthough using historical data to predict future market movements is not entirely accurate, cyclical patterns remain important indicators for the crypto community and broader markets.

“Seasonality factors typically aren’t reliable as standalone indicators. However, historical data gains greater credibility when combined with other market signals,” noted Omkar Godbole, an analyst at CoinDesk.

In his annual letter to investors, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighted the mounting debt burden faced by the United States, emphasizing that interest payments alone now exceed 952 billion USD.

According to Fink, the U.S. may need to raise tariffs or corporate taxes to protect the dollar’s strength. However, such measures may hurt confidence in the USD, pushing investors toward assets like Bitcoin.

According to reports from BlockDevs, the investment mogul stated: “We are now seeing a return to macroeconomic concerns, particularly focused on the U.S. due to its role in the global financial system.”

“If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, we may see a return to macroeconomic concerns, and the dollar could lose its reserve currency status, paving the way for another asset to take its place – perhaps Bitcoin.”

Earlier, in January 2024, when discussing the possibility of investing in cryptocurrencies with Yale students, Fink mentioned that a major investment fund is actively considering allocating between 2% and 5% of its portfolio to Bitcoin.

At the same time, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has seen an impressive 50 billion USD inflow in just 15 months since its launch in January 2024, highlighting the strong demand from traditional financial institutions.

Additionally, Bitcoin halving data shows strong post-halving growth – including a 686% surge after the third halving. However, despite the recent halving, Bitcoin has only risen 63% – modest compared to the previous cycle. Therefore, several analytics firms and organizations, including CryptoQuant and Strategy, suggest that BTC still has significant room for growth soon.

“Your lie in April”Contrary to Larry Fink’s optimistic forecasts, several experts have urged caution. They suggest the market outlook for April 2025 may not be as positive as expected.

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin still maintains a bullish long-term outlook. However, short-term risks from the Mt.Gox situation continue to weigh on the market. Recently, Mt.Gox moved a large amount of Bitcoin to Kraken, raising fears of liquidations and near-term selling pressure from creditors.

The fallout from the Mt.Gox case may escalate further if it negatively impacts retail investor sentiment. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently stated that Bitcoin’s price could potentially decline sharply to around 70,000 USD if ETF outflows hit the critical threshold of 30 billion USD— a clear indicator of widespread fear among retail and traditional investors.

Analysts from Glassnode echoed Hayes’s concerns, emphasizing that significant ETF outflows could indeed push Bitcoin back toward 70,000 USD.

Negative sentiment is increasingly noticeable among market participants, with some investors pointing out the seasonal pattern often referred to as “Sell in May.” Even if Bitcoin experiences substantial gains in April, caution remains warranted.

The 2021 market cycle offers a historical precedent: After reaching its peak in April, Bitcoin’s price dramatically declined in May. Analyst Oinonen from CryptoQuant similarly cautioned that early summer 2025 might see subdued market activity or an extended correction period as investors capitalize on gains from preceding months.

BTC may experience a short-term pullback before preparing for a stronger rally – Source: Onionen.

Additionally, bearish analysts highlight ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties as significant