美國債務上限回歸，但過去的經驗顯示這可能對比特幣（BTC）和風險資產有利

有些問題永遠不會真正消失，美國債務上限就是其中之一，它限制了政府可以藉入的最高金額。

The United States will hit its roughly $36 trillion debt limit on Tuesday, meaning it cannot borrow any more from the public to fund its operations, according to an official announcement from outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday.

即將離任的財政部長珍妮特耶倫 (Janet Yellen) 週五正式宣布，美國將於週二達到約 36 兆美元的債務上限，這意味著美國無法再向公眾借款為其營運提供資金。

The debt limit does not authorize any new spending, but it creates a risk that the federal government might not be able to finance its existing legal obligations that Congresses and Presidents of both parties have made in the past, the announcement noted.

公告指出，債務限額並未授權任何新的支出，但它帶來了聯邦政府可能無法為其國會和兩黨總統過去所承擔的現有法律義務提供資金的風險。

"As a result, I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," Yellen said in the statement.

耶倫在聲明中表示：“因此，我謹敦促國會迅速採取行動，保護美國的充分信心和信用。”

The very thought of the world's largest economy unable to borrow any more might scare investors, but it's important to note that a default and government shutdown won't happen immediately. Yellen has previously said that the Treasury will implement "extraordinary measures" from Tuesday, buying time at least till March 14.

全球最大經濟體無法再藉貸的想法可能會嚇到投資者，但值得注意的是，違約和政府關閉不會立即發生。耶倫此前曾表示，財政部將從週二開始實施“非常措施”，爭取至少到3月14日的時間。

One potential measure could be running down the Treasury General Account (TGA), the government's operating account at the Fed used to collect taxes, customs duties, proceeds from the sale of securities, and public debt receipts while facilitating government payments.

一項可能的措施可能是減少財政部普通帳戶（TGA），這是政府在聯準會的營運帳戶，用於徵收稅收、關稅、證券銷售收益和公共債務收入，同時促進政府支付。

The previous debt ceiling episode of early 2023, which involved using TGA to meet expenses, had a positive impact on risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). That's because when the government spends the TGA balance, the cash goes to bank accounts of various entities, like contractors, employers and others, at commercial banks. That boosts the amount of reserves held by commercial banks. With more reserves, they have a better capacity to lend money, potentially increasing lending or investment in the broader economy and financial markets.

2023 年初的債務上限事件涉及使用 TGA 來支付費用，這對包括比特幣 (BTC) 在內的風險資產產生了積極影響。這是因為當政府花費 TGA 餘額時，現金會進入商業銀行的各種實體的銀行帳戶，例如承包商、雇主和其他實體。這增加了商業銀行持有的準備金金額。有了更多的儲備，他們就有更好的放款能力，有可能增加對更廣泛的經濟和金融市場的貸款或投資。

As of Monday, the balance of the Treasury General Account was $677 billion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The chart below illustrates Bitcoin's price alongside changes in the TGA balance over the past five years. Notably, drawdowns in the TGA have frequently coincided with bitcoin bull runs, suggesting the inverse correlation between the two.

根據聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行的數據，截至週一，財政部普通帳戶餘額為 6,770 億美元。下圖顯示了過去五年比特幣的價格以及 TGA 餘額的變化。值得注意的是，TGA 的回撤經常與比特幣牛市同時發生，這表明兩者之間存在負相關性。