新储备时代的曙光？从黄金到国债到比特币

美国长期以来一直依靠美元和美国国库作为其经济，财政和货币策略的双支柱。但是，当这些乐器失去光泽时会发生什么？

The United States has long relied on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries as the twin pillars of its economic, fiscal and monetary strategies. But what happens when these instruments lose their luster?

美国长期以来一直依靠美元和美国国库作为其经济，财政和货币策略的双支柱。但是，当这些乐器失去光泽时会发生什么？

As the world changes, so too must the institutions and instruments that govern it. And in an age defined by rapid technological shifts, the question of monetary dominance has taken on new urgency.

随着世界的变化，管理世界的机构和工具也必须如此。在快速技术转变所定义的时代，货币主导地位的问题已经采取了新的紧迫性。

According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Head of Policy, Zack Shapiro, the current financial system is entering a historic inflection point. In a recent interview for the Bitcoin Policy Hour, he noted “If the United States announces that we are buying a million Bitcoin, that’s just a global seismic shock,” going on to say: “We probably go very quickly to something like a million dollars per Bitcoin.”

根据比特币政策研究所的政策主管扎克·夏皮罗（Zack Shapiro）的说法，当前的金融体系正在进入历史性的拐点。在最近对比特币政策时光的采访中，他指出：“如果美国宣布我们要购买一百万个比特币，那只是全球地震震惊，”继续说：“我们可能很快就会拿到一个大约一百万美元的比特币。”

And while the changing monetary order, a potential movement from Treasuries as the reserve asset towards Bitcoin, is largely evident for those with eyes to see, the paths that can be taken on that journey are myriad and gold’s role is the largest question mark facing the market.

尽管不断变化的货币秩序，即从国库作为储备资产到比特币的潜在转移，对于那些有目光的人来说，这是显而易见的，但在这段旅程中可以采取的道路是无数和黄金的角色是市场面临的最大问号。

Recent discussions around revaluing U.S. gold holdings — still officially priced at $42.22 per ounce — could unleash nearly $1 trillion in new purchasing power should the U.S. decide to draw upon it. What would the U.S. do with that windfall? If BPI's policy thinkers are right, it might be deployed to acquire a strategic Bitcoin reserve in a budget neutral manner in alignment with the remit of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order.

关于重新估算美国黄金控股的最新讨论（仍为每盎司42.22美元的正式价格），如果美国决定利用它，则可能会释放近1万亿美元的新购买力。美国将如何处理那段意外之财？如果BPI的政策思想家是正确的，则可以部署以预算中立的方式获得战略性比特币储备，以与战略比特币储备金行政命令的合同保持一致。

Gold Is Ancient. Bitcoin Is Strategic.

黄金是古老的。比特币是战略性的。

Matthew Pines, Executive Director of BPI, frames the choice in stark geoeconomic terms. “In terms of strategic leverage, there’s an asymmetric advantage for the United States to having Bitcoin monetize relative to gold,” he noted. Pines went to note that the U.S. and its population owns ~35% of all Bitcoin in circulation — a ratio that gives Washington serious incentive to prefer digital over metallic money.

BPI执行董事Matthew Pines以鲜明的地球经济术语构成了选择。他指出：“就战略杠杆作用而言，美国将比特币货币化相对于黄金有不对称的优势。”派恩斯（Pines）指出，美国及其人口在流通中拥有约35％的比特币，这一比例使华盛顿的激励措施比金属货币更喜欢数字化。

Gold, despite its historical credibility, is “centralizable, expensive to transport, and incompatible with a 21st-century economy,” said Pines. While central banks continue stacking it as a hedge against the weaponization of Treasuries, its utility as a modern reserve asset remains constrained.

派恩斯说，尽管具有历史性的信誉，但“尽管具有历史性的信誉，但“运输的中心化，运输昂贵，并且与21世纪的经济不相容”。尽管中央银行继续将其堆积为对纪念品武器化的对冲，但其作为现代储备资产的实用性仍受到限制。

Bitcoin, by contrast, is fast, global, and increasingly liquid — a networked form of monetary energy that sidesteps the geopolitical chokepoints that define traditional finance.

相比之下，比特币是快速，全球且越来越流动的 - 一种网络形式的货币能源形式，避开了定义传统金融的地缘政治障碍。

The Post-Dollar World Has Already Begun

后的世界已经开始

The dollar remains dominant — but fragile. Shapiro cited Triffin’s Dilemma, noting how the U.S. must increasingly choose between domestic economic goals and the international demands of reserve currency issuance. Sanctions like those imposed on Russia’s dollar reserves in 2022 shook global confidence in the neutrality of U.S. assets. Since then, foreign central banks have responded by moving rapidly into gold — and in some cases, Bitcoin.

美元仍然占主导地位，但脆弱。夏皮罗（Shapiro）引用了特里芬（Triffin）的困境，并指出了美国必须越来越多地在国内经济目标和对储备货币发行的国际要求之间进行选择。像2022年对俄罗斯美元储备的制裁一样，对美国资产的中立性充满信心。从那时起，外国中央银行的回应是迅速转移到黄金中 - 在某些情况下是比特币。

“The Treasury is becoming less of a neutral reserve asset,” Shapiro said, referencing escalating disorder in the bond markets and the U.S.’s perceived politicization of financial power.

夏皮罗说：“财政部变得不那么中立的储备资产。”

Yet both he and Pines stress that America still has tools — and Bitcoin may be the most potent among them. By shifting reserves into Bitcoin, the U.S. could reduce reliance on debt issuance, secure asymmetric leverage in a digitized world, and act from a position of strength in competition with its geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia.

然而，他和派恩斯都强调，美国仍然有工具 - 比特币可能是其中最有力的。通过将储量转移到比特币中，美国可以减少对债务发行的依赖，在数字化的世界中确保不对称的杠杆作用，并从与中国和俄罗斯等地缘政治竞争对手的竞争中脱颖而出。

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A National Imperative?

战略比特币储备：国家命令？

Under the executive order now guiding Trump administration’s Bitcoin strategy, departments like Treasury and Commerce are already exploring “budget-neutral” paths to Bitcoin acquisition. This includes:

根据现在指导特朗普政府比特币战略的行政命令，财政部和商业等部门已经在探索获得比特币获取的“预算中立”途径。这包括：

Pines emphasizes the urgency of institutional execution: “Words matter — especially when they come from the White House,” he noted. “An executive order stating Bitcoin is strategic is itself a global signal.”

派恩斯强调机构处决的紧迫性：“言语很重要，尤其是当它们来自白宫时，”他指出。 “主管命令说比特币是战略性的，本身就是全球信号。”

However, he also highlighted bureaucratic inertia as a real challenge: “There’s a massive difference between the speed at which the White House wants to move and the ability of the federal bureaucracy to follow.”

但是，他还强调了官僚主义的惯性是一个真正的挑战：“白宫想要移动的速度与联邦官僚机构遵循的能力之间存在巨大差异。”

From Theory to Detonation: Global Fallout of a U.S. Bitcoin Pivot

从理论到爆炸：美国比特币枢轴的全球影响

If America were to follow through on a large-scale acquisition of Bitcoin, the effects would be both immediate and far-reaching.

如果美国要大规模收购比特币，那么影响将是直接和深远的。

“Other nation-states will see that they can’t be left behind,” said Shapiro. “It would change central bank reserve strategies around the world.”

夏皮罗说：“其他民族国家将看到他们不能被抛在后面。” “它将改变世界各地的中央银行储备战略。”

Global rebalancing would follow. Countries heavily invested in gold or Treasuries would reassess. Hard assets like gold may see diminished demand, while Bitcoin would surge in legitimacy and price. Domestically, such a move would generate massive balance sheet gains for the federal government and re-anchor U.S. dominance in the next monetary era.

全球重新平衡将随后。投资于黄金或国库的国家将重新评估。像黄金这样的硬资产的需求可能会减少，而比特币的合法性和价格会飙升。在国内，这样的举动将为联邦政府和下一个货币时代的美国统治地位带来巨大的资产负债表获得。

Is Bitcoin America’s Next Superpower Lever?

比特币美国的下一个超级大能杠杆是吗？

Both Shapiro and Pines agree: whatever your view of Triffin’s Dilemma or monetary policy history, Bitcoin is now too strategic to ignore.

夏皮罗（Shapiro）和派恩斯（Pines）都同意：无论您对特里芬（Triffin）的困境或货币政策历史的看法如何，比特币现在太战略了，无法忽略。

“Bitcoin is indispensable,” said Shapiro

“比特币是必不可少的，”夏皮罗说