新儲備時代的曙光？從黃金到國債到比特幣

美國長期以來一直依靠美元和美國國庫作為其經濟，財政和貨幣策略的雙支柱。但是，當這些樂器失去光澤時會發生什麼？

The United States has long relied on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries as the twin pillars of its economic, fiscal and monetary strategies. But what happens when these instruments lose their luster?

美國長期以來一直依靠美元和美國國庫作為其經濟，財政和貨幣策略的雙支柱。但是，當這些樂器失去光澤時會發生什麼？

As the world changes, so too must the institutions and instruments that govern it. And in an age defined by rapid technological shifts, the question of monetary dominance has taken on new urgency.

隨著世界的變化，管理世界的機構和工具也必須如此。在快速技術轉變所定義的時代，貨幣主導地位的問題已經採取了新的緊迫性。

According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Head of Policy, Zack Shapiro, the current financial system is entering a historic inflection point. In a recent interview for the Bitcoin Policy Hour, he noted “If the United States announces that we are buying a million Bitcoin, that’s just a global seismic shock,” going on to say: “We probably go very quickly to something like a million dollars per Bitcoin.”

根據比特幣政策研究所的政策主管扎克·夏皮羅（Zack Shapiro）的說法，當前的金融體係正在進入歷史性的拐點。在最近對比特幣政策時光的採訪中，他指出：“如果美國宣布我們要購買一百萬個比特幣，那隻是全球地震震驚，”繼續說：“我們可能很快就會拿到一個大約一百萬美元的比特幣。”

And while the changing monetary order, a potential movement from Treasuries as the reserve asset towards Bitcoin, is largely evident for those with eyes to see, the paths that can be taken on that journey are myriad and gold’s role is the largest question mark facing the market.

儘管不斷變化的貨幣秩序，即從國庫作為儲備資產到比特幣的潛在轉移，對於那些有目光的人來說，這是顯而易見的，但在這段旅程中可以採取的道路是無數和黃金的角色是市場面臨的最大問號。

Recent discussions around revaluing U.S. gold holdings — still officially priced at $42.22 per ounce — could unleash nearly $1 trillion in new purchasing power should the U.S. decide to draw upon it. What would the U.S. do with that windfall? If BPI's policy thinkers are right, it might be deployed to acquire a strategic Bitcoin reserve in a budget neutral manner in alignment with the remit of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order.

關於重新估算美國黃金控股的最新討論（仍為每盎司42.22美元的正式價格），如果美國決定利用它，則可能會釋放近1萬億美元的新購買力。美國將如何處理那段意外之財？如果BPI的政策思想家是正確的，則可以部署以預算中立的方式獲得戰略性比特幣儲備，以與戰略比特幣儲備金行政命令的合同保持一致。

Gold Is Ancient. Bitcoin Is Strategic.

黃金是古老的。比特幣是戰略性的。

Matthew Pines, Executive Director of BPI, frames the choice in stark geoeconomic terms. “In terms of strategic leverage, there’s an asymmetric advantage for the United States to having Bitcoin monetize relative to gold,” he noted. Pines went to note that the U.S. and its population owns ~35% of all Bitcoin in circulation — a ratio that gives Washington serious incentive to prefer digital over metallic money.

BPI執行董事Matthew Pines以鮮明的地球經濟術語構成了選擇。他指出：“就戰略槓桿作用而言，美國將比特幣貨幣化相對於黃金有不對稱的優勢。”派恩斯（Pines）指出，美國及其人口在流通中擁有約35％的比特幣，這一比例使華盛頓的激勵措施比金屬貨幣更喜歡數字化。

Gold, despite its historical credibility, is “centralizable, expensive to transport, and incompatible with a 21st-century economy,” said Pines. While central banks continue stacking it as a hedge against the weaponization of Treasuries, its utility as a modern reserve asset remains constrained.

派恩斯說，儘管具有歷史性的信譽，但“儘管具有歷史性的信譽，但“運輸的中心化，運輸昂貴，並且與21世紀的經濟不相容”。儘管中央銀行繼續將其堆積為對紀念品武器化的對沖，但其作為現代儲備資產的實用性仍受到限制。

Bitcoin, by contrast, is fast, global, and increasingly liquid — a networked form of monetary energy that sidesteps the geopolitical chokepoints that define traditional finance.

相比之下，比特幣是快速，全球且越來越流動的 - 一種網絡形式的貨幣能源形式，避開了定義傳統金融的地緣政治障礙。

The Post-Dollar World Has Already Begun

後的世界已經開始

The dollar remains dominant — but fragile. Shapiro cited Triffin’s Dilemma, noting how the U.S. must increasingly choose between domestic economic goals and the international demands of reserve currency issuance. Sanctions like those imposed on Russia’s dollar reserves in 2022 shook global confidence in the neutrality of U.S. assets. Since then, foreign central banks have responded by moving rapidly into gold — and in some cases, Bitcoin.

美元仍然占主導地位，但脆弱。夏皮羅（Shapiro）引用了特里芬（Triffin）的困境，並指出了美國必須越來越多地在國內經濟目標和對儲備貨幣發行的國際要求之間進行選擇。像2022年對俄羅斯美元儲備的製裁一樣，對美國資產的中立性充滿信心。從那時起，外國中央銀行的回應是迅速轉移到黃金中 - 在某些情況下是比特幣。

“The Treasury is becoming less of a neutral reserve asset,” Shapiro said, referencing escalating disorder in the bond markets and the U.S.’s perceived politicization of financial power.

夏皮羅說：“財政部變得不那麼中立的儲備資產。”

Yet both he and Pines stress that America still has tools — and Bitcoin may be the most potent among them. By shifting reserves into Bitcoin, the U.S. could reduce reliance on debt issuance, secure asymmetric leverage in a digitized world, and act from a position of strength in competition with its geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia.

然而，他和派恩斯都強調，美國仍然有工具 - 比特幣可能是其中最有力的。通過將儲量轉移到比特幣中，美國可以減少對債務發行的依賴，在數字化的世界中確保不對稱的槓桿作用，並從與中國和俄羅斯等地緣政治競爭對手的競爭中脫穎而出。

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A National Imperative?

戰略比特幣儲備：國家命令？

Under the executive order now guiding Trump administration’s Bitcoin strategy, departments like Treasury and Commerce are already exploring “budget-neutral” paths to Bitcoin acquisition. This includes:

根據現在指導特朗普政府比特幣戰略的行政命令，財政部和商業等部門已經在探索獲得比特幣獲取的“預算中立”途徑。這包括：

Pines emphasizes the urgency of institutional execution: “Words matter — especially when they come from the White House,” he noted. “An executive order stating Bitcoin is strategic is itself a global signal.”

派恩斯強調機構處決的緊迫性：“言語很重要，尤其是當它們來自白宮時，”他指出。 “主管命令說比特幣是戰略性的，本身就是全球信號。”

However, he also highlighted bureaucratic inertia as a real challenge: “There’s a massive difference between the speed at which the White House wants to move and the ability of the federal bureaucracy to follow.”

但是，他還強調了官僚主義的慣性是一個真正的挑戰：“白宮想要移動的速度與聯邦官僚機構遵循的能力之間存在巨大差異。”

From Theory to Detonation: Global Fallout of a U.S. Bitcoin Pivot

從理論到爆炸：美國比特幣樞軸的全球影響

If America were to follow through on a large-scale acquisition of Bitcoin, the effects would be both immediate and far-reaching.

如果美國要大規模收購比特幣，那麼影響將是直接和深遠的。

“Other nation-states will see that they can’t be left behind,” said Shapiro. “It would change central bank reserve strategies around the world.”

夏皮羅說：“其他民族國家將看到他們不能被拋在後面。” “它將改變世界各地的中央銀行儲備戰略。”

Global rebalancing would follow. Countries heavily invested in gold or Treasuries would reassess. Hard assets like gold may see diminished demand, while Bitcoin would surge in legitimacy and price. Domestically, such a move would generate massive balance sheet gains for the federal government and re-anchor U.S. dominance in the next monetary era.

全球重新平衡將隨後。投資於黃金或國庫的國家將重新評估。像黃金這樣的硬資產的需求可能會減少，而比特幣的合法性和價格會飆升。在國內，這樣的舉動將為聯邦政府和下一個貨幣時代的美國統治地位帶來巨大的資產負債表獲得。

Is Bitcoin America’s Next Superpower Lever?

比特幣美國的下一個超級大能槓桿是嗎？

Both Shapiro and Pines agree: whatever your view of Triffin’s Dilemma or monetary policy history, Bitcoin is now too strategic to ignore.

夏皮羅（Shapiro）和派恩斯（Pines）都同意：無論您對特里芬（Triffin）的困境或貨幣政策歷史的看法如何，比特幣現在太戰略了，無法忽略。

“Bitcoin is indispensable,” said Shapiro

“比特幣是必不可少的，”夏皮羅說