加密货币投机指数下滑表明比特币牛市重置

关键指标显示，第一季度盛行的投机行为已经消散。据观察，牛市在过度乐观时期会停滞，只有在投机泡沫被清除后才会恢复。

A key gauge of speculative excesses in the crypto markets has slid to lows not seen since early 2019, suggesting the speculative froth that built up during the first quarter of this year has dissipated.

加密货币市场投机过度的一个关键指标已跌至 2019 年初以来的最低点，这表明今年第一季度积累的投机泡沫已经消散。

This bodes well for bitcoin’s (BTC) price, as bull markets have stalled during periods of optimism, only to resume after the speculative excesses have been cleared out.

这对比特币（BTC）的价格来说是个好兆头，因为牛市在乐观时期陷入停滞，只有在过度投机被清除后才会恢复。

Capriole Investment’s crypto speculation index shows that the speculative excesses in the first quarter are now gone, with the index sliding to 9.2% on Friday from a high of nearly 60% in January.

Capriole Investment 的加密货币投机指数显示，第一季度的投机过度现象现已消失，该指数从 1 月份近 60% 的高点下滑至周五的 9.2%。

The speculation index measures the percentage of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) with 90-day returns that are higher than bitcoin’s 90-day price gains. A higher percentage indicates stronger speculative interest in altcoins relative to bitcoin.

该投机指数衡量的是 90 天回报率高于比特币 90 天价格涨幅的替代加密货币（山寨币）的百分比。较高的百分比表明相对于比特币，人们对山寨币的投机兴趣更强。

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, hit new record highs above $70,000 in the first quarter and has since cooled to $58,000. Moreover, there are over 14,800 altcoins in existence, as per data from CoinGecko.

比特币是市值领先的加密货币，第一季度创下 70,000 美元以上的新纪录高点，此后已冷却至 58,000 美元。此外，根据 CoinGecko 的数据，现有超过 14,800 种山寨币。

However, the vast majority of these coins are illiquid and struggle to demonstrate their use cases. Thus, altcoins are largely viewed as speculative instruments, with their trading volumes closely tied to Google Trends, an indicator of retail investor interest.

然而，这些代币中的绝大多数都缺乏流动性，并且很难展示它们的用例。因此，山寨币在很大程度上被视为投机工具，其交易量与散户投资者兴趣指标谷歌趋势密切相关。

Moreover, a altcoin outperformance relative to BTC is seen as a sign of speculative mania in the crypto markets.

此外，山寨币相对于 BTC 的优异表现被视为加密市场投机狂热的迹象。

Speculative washouts, however, serve as corrective mechanisms, helping realign asset prices with fundamentals and tempering excessive speculation. Thus, they set the stage for a healthier environment in the long run.

然而，投机性冲刷可以作为纠正机制，帮助调整资产价格与基本面的关系，并抑制过度投机。因此，从长远来看，它们为更健康的环境奠定了基础。

That has been the case in the crypto market. Since 2019, a speculation index below 10% has coincided with the beginnings of sharp bitcoin rallies, like those seen in the first half of 2019, late 2020 and the second half of 2023.

加密货币市场就是这种情况。自 2019 年以来，投机指数低于 10% 的同时，比特币也开始大幅上涨，就像 2019 年上半年、2020 年末和 2023 年下半年那样。