加密貨幣投機指數下滑顯示比特幣牛市重置

關鍵指標顯示，第一季盛行的投機行為已經消散。據觀察，牛市在過度樂觀時期會停滯，只有在投機泡沫被清除後才會恢復。

A key gauge of speculative excesses in the crypto markets has slid to lows not seen since early 2019, suggesting the speculative froth that built up during the first quarter of this year has dissipated.

加密貨幣市場投機過度的關鍵指標已跌至 2019 年初以來的最低點，這表明今年第一季累積的投機泡沫已經消散。

This bodes well for bitcoin’s (BTC) price, as bull markets have stalled during periods of optimism, only to resume after the speculative excesses have been cleared out.

這對比特幣（BTC）的價格來說是個好兆頭，因為牛市在樂觀時期陷入停滯，只有在過度投機被清除後才會恢復。

Capriole Investment’s crypto speculation index shows that the speculative excesses in the first quarter are now gone, with the index sliding to 9.2% on Friday from a high of nearly 60% in January.

Capriole Investment 的加密貨幣投機指數顯示，第一季的投機過度現象現已消失，該指數從 1 月近 60% 的高點下滑至週五的 9.2%。

The speculation index measures the percentage of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) with 90-day returns that are higher than bitcoin’s 90-day price gains. A higher percentage indicates stronger speculative interest in altcoins relative to bitcoin.

該投機指數衡量的是 90 天回報率高於比特幣 90 天價格漲幅的替代加密貨幣（山寨幣）的百分比。較高的百分比表示相對於比特幣，人們對山寨幣的投機興趣更強。

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, hit new record highs above $70,000 in the first quarter and has since cooled to $58,000. Moreover, there are over 14,800 altcoins in existence, as per data from CoinGecko.

比特幣是市值領先的加密貨幣，第一季創下 70,000 美元以上的新紀錄高點，此後已冷卻至 58,000 美元。此外，根據 CoinGecko 的數據，現有超過 14,800 種山寨幣。

However, the vast majority of these coins are illiquid and struggle to demonstrate their use cases. Thus, altcoins are largely viewed as speculative instruments, with their trading volumes closely tied to Google Trends, an indicator of retail investor interest.

然而，這些代幣中的絕大多數都缺乏流動性，並且很難展示它們的用例。因此，山寨幣在很大程度上被視為投機工具，其交易量與散戶投資者興趣指標谷歌趨勢密切相關。

Moreover, a altcoin outperformance relative to BTC is seen as a sign of speculative mania in the crypto markets.

此外，山寨幣相對於 BTC 的優異表現被視為加密市場投機狂熱的跡象。

Speculative washouts, however, serve as corrective mechanisms, helping realign asset prices with fundamentals and tempering excessive speculation. Thus, they set the stage for a healthier environment in the long run.

然而，投機性沖刷可以作為一種糾正機制，幫助調整資產價格與基本面的關係，並抑制過度投機。因此，從長遠來看，它們為更健康的環境奠定了基礎。

That has been the case in the crypto market. Since 2019, a speculation index below 10% has coincided with the beginnings of sharp bitcoin rallies, like those seen in the first half of 2019, late 2020 and the second half of 2023.

加密貨幣市場就是這種情況。自 2019 年以來，投機指數低於 10% 的同時，比特幣也開始大幅上漲，就像 2019 年上半年、2020 年末和 2023 年下半年一樣。