周末结束后，比特币（BTC）在急剧上升后到达技术十字路口

在周末结束时急剧上升后，比特币现在处于技术十字路口。尽管动力引发了人们对趋势逆转的希望，但基础结构讲述了一个更加谨慎的故事 - 交易者不应该忽略一个故事。

After a sharp rise near the end of the weekend, Bitcoin is now at a technical crossroads. While momentum sparked hopes of a trend reversal, the underlying structure tells a more cautious story — one that traders shouldn't ignore.

在周末结束时急剧上升后，比特币现在处于技术十字路口。尽管动力引发了人们对趋势逆转的希望，但基础结构讲述了一个更加谨慎的故事 - 交易者不应该忽略一个故事。

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with an impulsive move to the upside, breaking out of a short-term consolidation and sweeping liquidity above recent highs.

比特币（BTC）开始了本周，冲动到上升空间，突破了短期合并和超过最近高点的流动性。

This breakout has generated attention, but in the broader context, Bitcoin has yet to shift the overall trend, which continues to reflect a bearish bias.

这种突破引起了人们的关注，但是在更广泛的背景下，比特币尚未改变整体趋势，这继续反映出看跌的偏见。

The recent swing high at $88,465 falls just short of breaking the previous high at $88,500 — a key level that defines the continuation of the downtrend.

最近的秋千高点为88,465美元，距离以前的高点为88,500美元，这是一个关键水平，定义了下降趋势的延续。

Source: Ben Armstrong

资料来源：本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）

A legitimate break of trend would require Bitcoin to move above $88,500 with strength, ideally supported by a surge in volume and momentum. Without that, this recent move is better viewed as another lower high within the existing downtrend, rather than a signal of bullish continuation.

合法的趋势中断将需要比特币以强度的强度移动到88,500美元以上，理想能力得到体积和动力的涌入。没有这些，这一最近的举动被更好地看作是在现有下降趋势中的另一个较低的高位，而不是看涨的信号。

From a structural standpoint, this pattern of lower highs and lower lows has been consistent over recent weeks.

从结构的角度来看，这种较低高和较低低的模式在最近几周内一直保持一致。

If the $88,465 level holds and price begins to roll over, it opens the door for a sweep of liquidity resting at $74,500 — a level that has historically attracted demand but could be vulnerable in this context.

如果$ 88,465的水平持有和价格开始推出，它将为占地74,500美元的流动性打开，这一水平在历史上吸引了需求，但在这种情况下可能很容易受到攻击。

Below that, the next significant support comes in at $67,850, which would mark a fresh lower low and confirm the ongoing bearish cycle.

在此之下，下一个重大支持为67,850美元，这将标志着新的低点并确认正在进行的看跌周期。

For traders, this setup calls for caution. While the upside move may appear strong on lower time frames, it lacks confirmation on higher time frame structures.

对于交易者而言，此设置需要谨慎。虽然上行移动在较低的时间范围内可能看起来很强，但它缺乏在较高时间框架结构上的确认。

Unless Bitcoin can convincingly break and hold above $88,500, the safer bias remains bearish. Longs from current levels are riskier plays unless they’re tightly managed or supported by strong confirmation.

除非比特币令人信服地打破并持有88,500美元以上，否则更安全的偏见仍然是看跌。当前水平的渴望是风险更高的戏剧，除非它们受到强有力确认的严格管理或支持。