加密货币大骗局：唐纳德·特朗普和纳伊布·布克莱如何利用比特币让世界变得更加危险

通过拥抱加密货币，民粹主义领导人展示了他们的野心，以及他们对传统民主制衡的蔑视。

Donald Trump has changed his tune on cryptocurrencies. Three years ago, he declared them to be a “scam” and a threat to the primacy of the dollar in the international economy. Now, in a keynote address to the Bitcoin 2024 conference, he has promised to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet” if he is elected.

唐纳德·特朗普改变了对加密货币的态度。三年前，他宣称它们是“骗局”，并对美元在国际经济中的主导地位构成威胁。现在，在比特币 2024 会议的主题演讲中，他承诺如果当选，将使美国成为“地球的加密之都”。

Trump's son Eric has reminded the world of this campaign promise, made in July 2024. Given the Trump family's personal investments in crypto and the growing social influence of prominent crypto entrepreneurs, enlightened self-interest is clearly a major force.

特朗普的儿子埃里克提醒全世界注意 2024 年 7 月做出的​​竞选承诺。考虑到特朗普家族对加密货币的个人投资以及著名加密货币企业家日益增长的社会影响力，开明的自身利益显然是一股主要力量。

At the Bitcoin conference, both Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr suggested creating a new regulatory body where “the rules will be written by people who live your industry, not hate your industry”.

在比特币会议上，特朗普和小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪都建议建立一个新的监管机构，“规则将由那些生活在你的行业而不是讨厌你的行业的人来制定”。

Either way, the support of the crypto titans in funding Trump's electoral campaign is already paying dividends. Among Trump's most consequential appointments to his new administration is prominent cryptocurrency advocate, Paul Atkins, to be the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, venture capitalist David Sacks will be the “White House AI and Crypto Czar”.

不管怎样，加密货币巨头对特朗普竞选资金的支持已经带来了回报。特朗普对新政府最重要的任命之一是著名的加密货币倡导者保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins)，他将担任证券交易委员会主席。此外，风险投资家大卫·萨克斯将成为“白宫人工智能和加密货币沙皇”。

These appointments will, according to Trump, help to ensure the development of a legal framework that will give “the crypto industry the clarity it has been asking for.”

特朗普表示，这些任命将有助于确保法律框架的发展，该框架将为“加密货币行业提供其一直要求的清晰度”。

In practice, this will almost certainly mean giving the crypto sector even greater freedom from government oversight, one of the central ideological justifications for the development of crypto currencies in the first place, of course.

在实践中，这几乎肯定意味着给予加密行业更大的自由，使其免受政府监管，当然，这首先是加密货币发展的核心意识形态理由之一。

It also raises another question that animates more sceptical discussions of the crypto universe: can the tech bros be trusted to act in the greater public good? Especially given the libertarian streak that imbues crypto and the proliferation of memecoin scams.

它还提出了另一个问题，引发了对加密世界更多怀疑的讨论：可以相信科技兄弟会为了更大的公共利益而行动吗？特别是考虑到加密货币的自由主义倾向和模因币骗局的扩散。

As the experience of El Salvador reminds us, there is potential for things to go badly wrong. El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, in a move researchers describe as textbook authoritarian populism, rather than technologically visionary.

萨尔瓦多的经验提醒我们，事情有可能出现严重错误。萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克莱 (Nayib Bukele) 于 2021 年将比特币定为法定货币，研究人员称此举是教科书上的独裁民粹主义，而不是技术上的远见。

When Bitcoin crashed in 2022, it exacerbated El Salvador's post-Covid economic crisis. Bukele recently wound the experiment back to cement a new bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund, allowing businesses to choose to accept or reject payments in Bitcoin.

2022 年比特币崩盘，加剧了萨尔瓦多后新冠时期的经济危机。布克莱最近取消了该实验，以巩固与国际货币基金组织的新救助协议，允许企业选择接受或拒绝比特币付款。

But Bukele has been celebrating after his bet on crypto seemingly came good in the wake of the post-Trump Bitcoin spike. Populists using tech-fuelled bets on the future of their national economies to make themselves look good might be becoming an international playbook.

但在特朗普当选后比特币飙升后，布克莱对加密货币的押注似乎取得了成功，他一直在庆祝。民粹主义者利用技术驱动的赌注押注本国经济的未来，让自己看起来不错，这可能会成为国际剧本。

For leaders disdainful of traditional democratic checks like Trump and Bukele, “embracing technology” is an opportunity to show the extent of their ambitions (or hopes for what political gains can be reaped from this).

对于像特朗普和布克莱这样蔑视传统民主制衡的领导人来说，“拥抱技术”是展示其雄心壮志（或希望从中获得政治收益的希望）的机会。

Bukele anticipates an uplift for El Salvador's “investment, tourism, innovation and economic development”. While for Trump, it appears to be a “planetary” vision, which is ironic considering the environmental cost of cryptocurrencies.

布克莱预计萨尔瓦多的“投资、旅游业、创新和经济发展”将得到提升。而对于特朗普来说，这似乎是一个“全球”愿景，考虑到加密货币的环境成本，这是具有讽刺意味的。

True, the United States is not El Salvador, but this should make Trump's actions a matter of greater concern, not less. After all, the health of the US economy matters to everyone, not just the Americans.

诚然，美国不是萨尔瓦多，但这应该使特朗普的行为成为更令人担忧的问题，而不是更少。毕竟，美国经济的健康状况对每个人都很重要，而不仅仅是美国人。

Should there be a widespread collapse in confidence in the value of the US dollar or America's ability to pay its debts, this is another case of “our currency, your problem”, as former US treasury secretary John Connally famously told his European counterparts just before Nixon unilaterally abandoned the gold standard.

如果人们对美元价值或美国偿债能力的信心普遍崩溃，这就是“我们的货币，你们的问题”的另一个例子，正如美国前财政部长约翰·康纳利 (John Connally) 之前对欧洲同行所说的那样。尼克松单方面放弃了金本位制。

Could America's domestic policies trigger another global economic crisis? Absolutely. The rather misnamed “global financial crisis” and the “subprime debt crisis” were caused primarily by failures of domestic governance and regulatory oversight in the United States.

美国的国内政策是否会引发另一场全球经济危机？绝对地。被误称为“全球金融危机”和“次贷危机”的主要原因是美国国内治理和监管失灵。

One of the great attractions of crypto for speculators and self-interested boosters is its inherent volatility and detachment from any sort of underlying value. Crypto is worth whatever people believe it is worth, until they don’t, of course.

对于投机者和自私自利的支持者来说，加密货币的一大吸引力在于其固有的波动性和与任何潜在价值的脱离。当然，无论人们认为它值多少钱，加密货币都值钱，除非他们不这么认为。

Like any Ponzi scheme, it's a great opportunity for those who get in at the beginning to make (lots of) money for nothing. Subsequent entrants are increasingly motivated by the “fear of missing out”, creating what Charles Kindleberger called a “mob psychology”, which is inevitably followed by a panic as the market goes into decline.

与任何庞氏骗局一样，对于那些一开始就参与进来的人来说，这是一个免费赚（很多）钱的好机会。后来的进入者越来越多地受到“害怕错过”的激励，形成了查尔斯·金德尔伯格所说的“暴民心理”，随着市场的下滑，不可避免地会出现恐慌。

The Dotcom boom and bust illustrates the durability of this phenomenon. For those who buy at the top of the market, the chances of being wiped out are very real.

互联网泡沫的繁荣和萧条说明了这种现象的持久性。对于那些在市场顶部买入的人来说，被消灭的机会是非常真实的。

The great irony of Trump's policies is that they make such irrationality and greed all the more likely with entirely predictable economic and social consequences, while winning him support from an increasingly vocal and wealthy community.

特朗普政策的最大讽刺之处在于，它们使这种非理性和贪婪更有可能产生完全可预测的经济和社会后果，同时为他赢得了日益发声和富裕社区的支持。

This would be a problem at any time, but when Trump is also intending to start a trade war with China that looks eerily reminiscent of the Great Depression, the outlook could hardly be more sobering.

这在任何时候都会成为一个问题，但当特朗普还打算对中国发动一场看起来令人毛骨悚然的大萧条时期的贸易战时，前景再清醒不过了。

Indeed, when international politics are being shaped by pointless and avoidable conflicts, not to mention the

事实上，当国际政治被毫无意义且可以避免的冲突所塑造时，更不用说