加密貨幣大騙局：唐納德·川普和納伊布·布克萊如何利用比特幣讓世界變得更加危險

透過擁抱加密貨幣，民粹主義領導人展現了他們的野心，以及他們對傳統民主制衡的蔑視。

Donald Trump has changed his tune on cryptocurrencies. Three years ago, he declared them to be a “scam” and a threat to the primacy of the dollar in the international economy. Now, in a keynote address to the Bitcoin 2024 conference, he has promised to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet” if he is elected.

唐納德·川普改變了對加密貨幣的態度。三年前，他宣稱它們是“騙局”，並對美元在國際經濟中的主導地位構成威脅。現在，在比特幣 2024 會議的主題演講中，他承諾如果當選，將使美國成為「地球的加密之都」。

Trump's son Eric has reminded the world of this campaign promise, made in July 2024. Given the Trump family's personal investments in crypto and the growing social influence of prominent crypto entrepreneurs, enlightened self-interest is clearly a major force.

川普的兒子艾瑞克提醒全世界注意2024 年7 月做出的​​競選承諾。的自身利益顯然是一股主要力量。

At the Bitcoin conference, both Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr suggested creating a new regulatory body where “the rules will be written by people who live your industry, not hate your industry”.

在比特幣會議上，川普和小羅伯特·F·甘迺迪都建議建立一個新的監管機構，「規則將由那些生活在你的行業而不是討厭你的行業的人來製定」。

Either way, the support of the crypto titans in funding Trump's electoral campaign is already paying dividends. Among Trump's most consequential appointments to his new administration is prominent cryptocurrency advocate, Paul Atkins, to be the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, venture capitalist David Sacks will be the “White House AI and Crypto Czar”.

不管怎樣，加密貨幣巨頭對川普競選資金的支持已經帶來了回報。川普對新政府最重要的任命之一是著名的加密貨幣倡導者保羅·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins)，他將擔任美國證券交易委員會主席。此外，創投家大衛·薩克斯將成為「白宮人工智慧和加密貨幣沙皇」。

These appointments will, according to Trump, help to ensure the development of a legal framework that will give “the crypto industry the clarity it has been asking for.”

川普表示，這些任命將有助於確保法律框架的發展，該框架將為「加密貨幣產業提供其一直要求的清晰度」。

In practice, this will almost certainly mean giving the crypto sector even greater freedom from government oversight, one of the central ideological justifications for the development of crypto currencies in the first place, of course.

在實踐中，這幾乎肯定意味著給予加密產業更大的自由，使其免受政府監管，當然，這首先是加密貨幣發展的核心意識形態理由之一。

It also raises another question that animates more sceptical discussions of the crypto universe: can the tech bros be trusted to act in the greater public good? Especially given the libertarian streak that imbues crypto and the proliferation of memecoin scams.

它也提出了另一個問題，引發了對加密世界更多懷疑的討論：可以相信科技兄弟會為了更大的公共利益而行動嗎？特別是考慮到加密貨幣的自由主義傾向和模因幣騙局的擴散。

As the experience of El Salvador reminds us, there is potential for things to go badly wrong. El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, in a move researchers describe as textbook authoritarian populism, rather than technologically visionary.

薩爾瓦多的經驗提醒我們，事情有可能會出現嚴重錯誤。薩爾瓦多總統納伊布·布克萊 (Nayib Bukele) 於 2021 年將比特幣定為法定貨幣，研究人員稱此舉是教科書上的威權民粹主義，而不是技術上的遠見。

When Bitcoin crashed in 2022, it exacerbated El Salvador's post-Covid economic crisis. Bukele recently wound the experiment back to cement a new bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund, allowing businesses to choose to accept or reject payments in Bitcoin.

2022 年比特幣崩盤，加劇了薩爾瓦多後新冠的經濟危機。布克萊最近取消了該實驗，以鞏固與國際貨幣基金組織的新紓困協議，允許企業選擇接受或拒絕比特幣付款。

But Bukele has been celebrating after his bet on crypto seemingly came good in the wake of the post-Trump Bitcoin spike. Populists using tech-fuelled bets on the future of their national economies to make themselves look good might be becoming an international playbook.

但在川普當選後比特幣飆升後，布克萊對加密貨幣的押注似乎取得了成功，他一直在慶祝。民粹主義者利用科技驅動的賭注押注本國經濟的未來，讓自己看起來不錯，這可能會成為國際劇本。

For leaders disdainful of traditional democratic checks like Trump and Bukele, “embracing technology” is an opportunity to show the extent of their ambitions (or hopes for what political gains can be reaped from this).

對於像川普和布克萊這樣蔑視傳統民主制衡的領導人來說，「擁抱科技」是展示其雄心壯志（或希望從中獲得政治利益的希望）的機會。

Bukele anticipates an uplift for El Salvador's “investment, tourism, innovation and economic development”. While for Trump, it appears to be a “planetary” vision, which is ironic considering the environmental cost of cryptocurrencies.

布克萊預計薩爾瓦多的「投資、旅遊業、創新和經濟發展」將會提升。而對川普來說，這似乎是一個「全球」願景，考慮到加密貨幣的環境成本，這是諷刺的。

True, the United States is not El Salvador, but this should make Trump's actions a matter of greater concern, not less. After all, the health of the US economy matters to everyone, not just the Americans.

誠然，美國不是薩爾瓦多，但這應該使川普的行為成為更令人擔憂的問題，而不是更少。畢竟，美國經濟的健康狀況對每個人都很重要，而不僅僅是美國人。

Should there be a widespread collapse in confidence in the value of the US dollar or America's ability to pay its debts, this is another case of “our currency, your problem”, as former US treasury secretary John Connally famously told his European counterparts just before Nixon unilaterally abandoned the gold standard.

如果人們對美元價值或美國償債能力的信心普遍崩潰，這就是「我們的貨幣，你們的問題」的另一個例子，正如美國前財政部長約翰·康納利(John Connally) 之前對歐洲同行所說的那樣。

Could America's domestic policies trigger another global economic crisis? Absolutely. The rather misnamed “global financial crisis” and the “subprime debt crisis” were caused primarily by failures of domestic governance and regulatory oversight in the United States.

美國的國內政策是否會引發另一場全球經濟危機？絕對地。被誤稱為「全球金融危機」和「次貸危機」的主要原因是美國國內治理和監管失靈。

One of the great attractions of crypto for speculators and self-interested boosters is its inherent volatility and detachment from any sort of underlying value. Crypto is worth whatever people believe it is worth, until they don’t, of course.

對於投機者和自私自利的支持者來說，加密貨幣的一大吸引力在於其固有的波動性和與任何潛在價值的脫離。當然，無論人們認為它值多少錢，加密貨幣都值錢，除非他們不這麼認為。

Like any Ponzi scheme, it's a great opportunity for those who get in at the beginning to make (lots of) money for nothing. Subsequent entrants are increasingly motivated by the “fear of missing out”, creating what Charles Kindleberger called a “mob psychology”, which is inevitably followed by a panic as the market goes into decline.

就像任何龐氏騙局一樣，對於那些一開始就參與的人來說，這是一個免費賺（很多）錢的好機會。後來的進入者越來越多地受到“害怕錯過”的激勵，形成了查爾斯·金德爾伯格所說的“暴民心理”，隨著市場的下滑，不可避免地會出現恐慌。

The Dotcom boom and bust illustrates the durability of this phenomenon. For those who buy at the top of the market, the chances of being wiped out are very real.

網路泡沫的繁榮和蕭條說明了這種現象的持久性。對於那些在市場頂部買入的人來說，被消滅的機會是非常真實的。

The great irony of Trump's policies is that they make such irrationality and greed all the more likely with entirely predictable economic and social consequences, while winning him support from an increasingly vocal and wealthy community.

川普政策的最大諷刺之處在於，它們使這種非理性和貪婪更有可能產生完全可預測的經濟和社會後果，同時為他贏得了日益發聲和富裕社區的支持。

This would be a problem at any time, but when Trump is also intending to start a trade war with China that looks eerily reminiscent of the Great Depression, the outlook could hardly be more sobering.

這在任何時候都會成為一個問題，但當川普還打算對中國發動一場看起來令人毛骨悚然的大蕭條時期的貿易戰時，前景再清醒不過了。

Indeed, when international politics are being shaped by pointless and avoidable conflicts, not to mention the

事實上，當國際政治被毫無意義且可以避免的衝突所塑造時，更不用說