离岸人民币 (CNH) 接近 7.368：这对比特币和加密货币空间意味着什么

离岸人民币（CNH）与美元之间的汇率已接近7.368的关键关口，成为全球宏观交易者关注的焦点。

The exchange rate between the Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) and the U.S. Dollar has become a focal point for global macro traders as it approaches a critical threshold of 7.368.

离岸人民币（CNH）与美元之间的汇率已接近7.368的关键关口，成为全球宏观交易者关注的焦点。

On Jan. 7, 2025, André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, explained on the social media platform X why this matters — and why the implications could extend beyond traditional markets to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency space.

2025 年 1 月 7 日，Bitwise 资产管理公司欧洲研究主管 André Dragosch 在社交媒体平台 X 上解释了为什么这很重要，以及为什么其影响可能超越传统市场，扩展到比特币和更广泛的加密货币领域。

China’s currency, the Yuan, comes in two forms. The Onshore Yuan (CNY) is used inside mainland China and tightly managed by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the country’s central bank. The Offshore Yuan (CNH), traded outside mainland China in places like Hong Kong, is more influenced by market forces. This makes it a key indicator of how international investors view China’s economic health.

中国的货币人民币有两种形式。在岸人民币 (CNY) 在中国大陆境内使用，并由中国中央银行中国人民银行 (PBoC) 严格管理。离岸人民币（CNH）在中国大陆以外的地方（例如香港）进行交易，更容易受到市场力量的影响。这使其成为国际投资者如何看待中国经济健康状况的关键指标。

The exchange rate between the Yuan and the U.S. Dollar reflects the Yuan’s strength. A weaker Yuan (a higher exchange rate) signals reduced confidence in China’s economy or mounting financial pressures. Dragosch’s post highlights that the PBoC is actively defending the Offshore Yuan at 7.368. This means the central bank is trying to prevent the Yuan from weakening past this level to maintain stability and avoid further economic strain.

人民币与美元之间的汇率反映了人民币的强势。人民币贬值（汇率走高）表明人们对中国经济的信心下降或金融压力加大。 Dragosch 的帖子强调，中国央行正在积极捍卫离岸人民币 7.368 的水平。这意味着央行正试图阻止人民币贬值超过这一水平，以维持稳定并避免进一步的经济压力。

The PBoC has several tools to influence the Yuan’s value. Dragosch mentioned two key strategies. First, the PBoC sets a daily midpoint (or “fixing”) for the Yuan’s exchange rate. By guiding the fixing lower, the PBoC signals its intent to strengthen the Yuan. Second, the central bank removes excess Yuan from circulation in the banking system. This is done through actions like selling foreign currency reserves or issuing central bank bills. By making the Yuan scarcer, its value increases, which helps stabilize the exchange rate.

中国人民银行有多种工具来影响人民币的价值。 Dragosch提到了两个关键策略。首先，中国人民银行设定人民币汇率的每日中间价（或“固定汇率”）。通过引导中间价走低，中国人民银行表明了其升值人民币的意图。其次，央行将过剩人民币退出银行体系流通。这是通过出售外汇储备或发行央行票据等行动来实现的。通过使人民币变得更稀缺，其价值会增加，这有助于稳定汇率。

These measures, while stabilizing the Yuan, create additional challenges for the economy. Tighter liquidity can make it harder for banks and businesses to access cash. This comes as the economy navigates existing headwinds, including challenges in the real estate sector, manufacturing, and consumer spending. Dragosch noted that high-frequency economic data already points to rising recession risks in China.

这些措施在稳定人民币的同时，也给经济带来了额外的挑战。流动性趋紧可能会使银行和企业更难获得现金。在此背景下，经济正面临着现有的不利因素，包括房地产行业、制造业和消费者支出方面的挑战。德拉戈什指出，高频经济数据已经表明中国经济衰退风险上升。

If the Yuan breaks past the 7.368 level, the PBoC may need to intensify its efforts to stabilize the currency. This could potentially deepen liquidity challenges, creating what Dragosch refers to as a “Yuan shock.” Such an event could lead to a sharp and sudden devaluation of the Yuan, with ripple effects on global markets.

如果人民币突破7.368水平，中国央行可能需要加大稳定货币的力度。这可能会加剧流动性挑战，造成德拉戈什所说的“人民币冲击”。此类事件可能导致人民币突然大幅贬值，对全球市场产生连锁反应。

For crypto traders, these developments are critical. Historically, periods of Yuan weakness have coincided with increased interest in Bitcoin as a store of value. Although China’s capital controls limit direct access to crypto, a significant devaluation could prompt Chinese investors to seek alternative assets, including Bitcoin.

对于加密货币交易者来说，这些发展至关重要。从历史上看，人民币疲软时期与人们对比特币作为价值储存手段的兴趣增加同时发生。尽管中国的资本管制限制了对加密货币的直接访问，但大幅贬值可能会促使中国投资者寻求包括比特币在内的替代资产。

A “Yuan shock” could also trigger broader turbulence in traditional financial markets, creating both risks and opportunities for crypto traders. While Bitcoin often moves alongside risk assets like stocks during initial market sell-offs, it could later benefit from its reputation as “digital gold” and a hedge against fiat currency instability. Additionally, the weakening of the Yuan could pressure other emerging market currencies, potentially increasing demand for Bitcoin in regions facing devaluation risks.

“人民币冲击”还可能引发传统金融市场更广泛的动荡，为加密货币交易者带来风险和机遇。虽然比特币在最初的市场抛售期间经常与股票等风险资产一起波动，但随后它可能会受益于其“数字黄金”的声誉和对冲法定货币不稳定的作用。此外，人民币贬值可能会给其他新兴市场货币带来压力，从而可能增加面临贬值风险的地区对比特币的需求。