離岸人民幣 (CNH) 接近 7.368：這對比特幣和加密貨幣空間意味著什麼

離岸人民幣（CNH）與美元之間的匯率已接近7.368的關鍵關口，成為全球宏觀交易者關注的焦點。

The exchange rate between the Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) and the U.S. Dollar has become a focal point for global macro traders as it approaches a critical threshold of 7.368.

離岸人民幣（CNH）與美元之間的匯率已接近7.368的關鍵關口，成為全球宏觀交易者關注的焦點。

On Jan. 7, 2025, André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, explained on the social media platform X why this matters — and why the implications could extend beyond traditional markets to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency space.

2025 年 1 月 7 日，Bitwise 資產管理公司歐洲研究主管 André Dragosch 在社群媒體平台 X 上解釋了為什麼這很重要，以及為什麼其影響可能超越傳統市場，擴展到比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣領域。

China’s currency, the Yuan, comes in two forms. The Onshore Yuan (CNY) is used inside mainland China and tightly managed by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the country’s central bank. The Offshore Yuan (CNH), traded outside mainland China in places like Hong Kong, is more influenced by market forces. This makes it a key indicator of how international investors view China’s economic health.

中國的貨幣人民幣有兩種形式。在岸人民幣 (CNY) 在中國大陸境內使用，並由中國中央銀行中國人民銀行 (PBoC) 嚴格管理。離岸人民幣（CNH）在中國大陸以外的地方（例如香港）進行交易，更容易受到市場力量的影響。這使其成為國際投資者如何看待中國經濟健康的關鍵指標。

The exchange rate between the Yuan and the U.S. Dollar reflects the Yuan’s strength. A weaker Yuan (a higher exchange rate) signals reduced confidence in China’s economy or mounting financial pressures. Dragosch’s post highlights that the PBoC is actively defending the Offshore Yuan at 7.368. This means the central bank is trying to prevent the Yuan from weakening past this level to maintain stability and avoid further economic strain.

人民幣與美元之間的匯率反映了人民幣的強勢。人民幣貶值（匯率走高）顯示人們對中國經濟的信心下降或金融壓力加大。 Dragosch 的貼文強調，中國央行正在積極捍衛離岸人民幣 7.368 的水平。這意味著央行正試圖阻止人民幣貶值超過這一水平，以維持穩定並避免進一步的經濟壓力。

The PBoC has several tools to influence the Yuan’s value. Dragosch mentioned two key strategies. First, the PBoC sets a daily midpoint (or “fixing”) for the Yuan’s exchange rate. By guiding the fixing lower, the PBoC signals its intent to strengthen the Yuan. Second, the central bank removes excess Yuan from circulation in the banking system. This is done through actions like selling foreign currency reserves or issuing central bank bills. By making the Yuan scarcer, its value increases, which helps stabilize the exchange rate.

中國人民銀行有多種工具來影響人民幣的價值。 Dragosch提到了兩個關鍵策略。首先，中國人民銀行設定人民幣匯率的每日中間價（或稱「固定匯率」）。透過引導中間價走低，中國人民銀行表明了其升值人民幣的意圖。其次，央行將過剩人民幣退出銀行體系流通。這是透過出售外匯存底或發行央行票據等行動來實現的。透過使人民幣變得更稀缺，其價值會增加，這有助於穩定匯率。

These measures, while stabilizing the Yuan, create additional challenges for the economy. Tighter liquidity can make it harder for banks and businesses to access cash. This comes as the economy navigates existing headwinds, including challenges in the real estate sector, manufacturing, and consumer spending. Dragosch noted that high-frequency economic data already points to rising recession risks in China.

這些措施在穩定人民幣的同時，也為經濟帶來了額外的挑戰。流動性趨緊可能會使銀行和企業更難獲得現金。在此背景下，經濟正在克服現有的不利因素，包括房地產業、製造業和消費者支出的挑戰。德拉戈什指出，高頻經濟數據已經顯示中國經濟衰退風險上升。

If the Yuan breaks past the 7.368 level, the PBoC may need to intensify its efforts to stabilize the currency. This could potentially deepen liquidity challenges, creating what Dragosch refers to as a “Yuan shock.” Such an event could lead to a sharp and sudden devaluation of the Yuan, with ripple effects on global markets.

如果人民幣突破7.368水平，中國央行可能需要加強穩定貨幣的力度。這可能會加劇流動性挑戰，造成德拉戈什所說的「人民幣衝擊」。此類事件可能導致人民幣突然大幅貶值，對全球市場產生連鎖反應。

For crypto traders, these developments are critical. Historically, periods of Yuan weakness have coincided with increased interest in Bitcoin as a store of value. Although China’s capital controls limit direct access to crypto, a significant devaluation could prompt Chinese investors to seek alternative assets, including Bitcoin.

對於加密貨幣交易者來說，這些發展至關重要。從歷史上看，人民幣疲軟時期與人們對比特幣作為價值儲存手段的興趣增加同時發生。儘管中國的資本管制限制了對加密貨幣的直接訪問，但大幅貶值可能會促使中國投資者尋求包括比特幣在內的替代資產。

A “Yuan shock” could also trigger broader turbulence in traditional financial markets, creating both risks and opportunities for crypto traders. While Bitcoin often moves alongside risk assets like stocks during initial market sell-offs, it could later benefit from its reputation as “digital gold” and a hedge against fiat currency instability. Additionally, the weakening of the Yuan could pressure other emerging market currencies, potentially increasing demand for Bitcoin in regions facing devaluation risks.

「人民幣衝擊」也可能引發傳統金融市場更廣泛的動盪，為加密貨幣交易者帶來風險和機會。雖然比特幣在最初的市場拋售期間經常與股票等風險資產一起波動，但隨後它可能會受益於其「數位黃金」的聲譽和對沖法定貨幣不穩定的作用。此外，人民幣貶值可能會對其他新興市場貨幣造成壓力，這可能會增加面臨貶值風險的地區對比特幣的需求。