比特币市场的稳定性随着流动性合同的侵害，投资者的警告加剧了

比特币的市场正在努力应对持续的流动性收缩和静音投资者活动

Bitcoin’s market stability is fraying as liquidity contracts and investor caution intensifies, according to a new Glassnode report by researchers Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC.

根据研究人员Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC的一份新的玻璃节报告，比特币的市场稳定在流动性合同和投资者的警告中加剧了。

The asset has slumped 30% from its February peak of $97,000 to $82,000, with net capital inflows nearly stalling, the report authored March 18 highlights. Glassnode data shows the Realized Cap—a measure of Bitcoin’s network value—is growing at just 0.67% monthly.

该报告撰写了3月18日的重点介绍，该资产从2月的峰值97,000美元至82,000美元下降了30％，净资本流入几乎停滞不前。玻璃节数据显示，已实现的上限（对比特币网络价值的量度）每月增长0.67％。

This signals a dearth of fresh capital to buoy prices. Liquidity strains are evident across onchain and derivatives markets. Exchange inflows have plummeted 54% since late February, while the volume of “Hot Supply” (coins held for less than a week) has halved to 2.8% of circulating BTC.

这标志着缺乏新的资本到浮标价格。在OnChain和衍生品市场中，流动性菌株显而易见。自2月下旬以来，交换流入量下降了54％，而“热供应”的数量（持有不到一周的硬币）已减少到循环BTC的2.8％。

This signals declining speculative appetite. Futures open interest has also dropped 35%, reflecting reduced hedging and arbitrage activity. Notably, analysts highlight an ongoing unwind of cash-and-carry trades, where institutions paired long spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) positions with short futures.

这标志着降低投机性食欲的信号。期货开放兴趣也下降了35％，反映了对冲和套利活动的减少。值得注意的是，分析师强调了现金和携带的持续不断的现金交易，该机构将长期交换基金（ETF）的职位与短期期货配对。

This has triggered $378 million in CME futures closures and ETF outflows, pressuring spot markets. “However, as long-side bias starts to soften in the market, an unwinding of the carry-trade appears to be taking place,” Glassnode’s onchain report adds.

这触发了3.78亿美元的CME期货关闭和ETF流出，这给现场市场施加了压力。 GlassNode的OnChain Report补充说：“但是，随着长时间偏见在市场上开始软化，随着随身携带的贸易似乎正在发生。”

“This has resulted in substantial ETF outflows, and the closure of a similar volume of futures positions.”

“这导致了大量的ETF流出，并关闭了类似的期货职位。”

The study shows options markets highlight rising risk aversion. The Volatility Smile metric reveals elevated premiums for put options, indicating traders are prioritizing downside protection. The 25 Delta Skew for one-week and one-month contracts also shows puts outpacing calls in cost—a pattern Glassnode ties to institutional caution.

该研究表明，期权市场强调了风险规避的上升。波动性的微笑指标显示，POT选项的保费提高，表明交易者正在优先考虑下行保护。为期一个星期和一个月的合同，这25个三角洲的偏斜也表明，要付出了代价，这是一个谨慎的玻璃节点纽带。

Short-Term Holders (STHs) face acute stress, with unrealized losses nearing cycle highs, the report disclosed. A record $7 billion in STH losses has been locked in since February, though Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC note this remains milder than 2021–2022 capitulation events. Long-Term Holders (LTHs), meanwhile, are reducing sell-side activity.

该报告披露，短期持有人（STHS）面临急性应力，未实现的损失接近周期高。自2月份以来，创纪录的70亿美元的STH损失已被锁定，尽管Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC注意到这仍然比2021 - 2022年投降活动更温和。同时，长期持有人（LTHS）正在减少卖方活动。

“We can evaluate the percentage of the total Long-Term Holder balance sent to exchange addresses,” the researchers add.

研究人员补充说：“我们可以评估发送给交换地址的长期持有人余额的百分比。”

“By this metric, we can see a pronounced, but swift spike in distribution as the market traded down into the low-$80k range. This suggests that some long-term investors opted to de-risk, taking profits off the table amidst the uptick in volatility.”

“按照这个指标，我们可以看到明显的，但随着市场的交易量为低至8万美元的范围，我们可以看到一个明显的分销峰值。这表明一些长期投资者选择降级风险，在波动性上涨中脱颖而出。”

Glassnode’s analysis adds that LTHs still control 40% of Bitcoin’s wealth, presenting a potential supply overhang. But their restraint—paired with STH distress—shows a bifurcated market.

GlassNode的分析补充说，LTHS仍控制比特币财富的40％，表现出潜在的供应悬垂。但是，他们的约束（以STH的困扰为准）展示了分叉的市场。

“When we look at the investor response to volatility, we see two divergent stories,” the report concludes. “First, Short-Term Holders are taking some of the largest losses of the cycle, reflecting a measure of fear. Long-Term Holders on the other hand, have slowed their spending, seeming to move away from sell-side distribution, and perhaps back towards patient accumulation and holding.”

报告总结说：“当我们看一下投资者对波动性的反应时，我们会看到两个不同的故事。” “首先，短期持有人正在占据周期中最大的损失，这反映了一种恐惧的措施。另一方面，长期持有人减慢了支出，似乎摆脱了卖方的分布，也许又回到了患者的积累和持有。”

As liquidity tightens and volatility persists, bitcoin’s path will depend on whether institutional demand can counterbalance wary retail sentiment—an intriguing dynamic everyone will be watching this year.

随着流动性的收紧和波动性的持续性，比特币的道路将取决于机构需求是否可以抵消零售情绪，这是一个有趣的动态，每个人都将在今年观看。