比特幣市場的穩定性隨著流動性合同的侵害，投資者的警告加劇了

比特幣的市場正在努力應對持續的流動性收縮和靜音投資者活動

Bitcoin’s market stability is fraying as liquidity contracts and investor caution intensifies, according to a new Glassnode report by researchers Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC.

根據研究人員Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC的一份新的玻璃節報告，比特幣的市場穩定在流動性合同和投資者的警告中加劇了。

The asset has slumped 30% from its February peak of $97,000 to $82,000, with net capital inflows nearly stalling, the report authored March 18 highlights. Glassnode data shows the Realized Cap—a measure of Bitcoin’s network value—is growing at just 0.67% monthly.

該報告撰寫了3月18日的重點介紹，該資產從2月的峰值97,000美元至82,000美元下降了30％，淨資本流入幾乎停滯不前。玻璃節數據顯示，已實現的上限（對比特幣網絡價值的量度）每月增長0.67％。

This signals a dearth of fresh capital to buoy prices. Liquidity strains are evident across onchain and derivatives markets. Exchange inflows have plummeted 54% since late February, while the volume of “Hot Supply” (coins held for less than a week) has halved to 2.8% of circulating BTC.

這標誌著缺乏新的資本到浮標價格。在OnChain和衍生品市場中，流動性菌株顯而易見。自2月下旬以來，交換流入量下降了54％，而“熱供應”的數量（持有不到一周的硬幣）已減少到循環BTC的2.8％。

This signals declining speculative appetite. Futures open interest has also dropped 35%, reflecting reduced hedging and arbitrage activity. Notably, analysts highlight an ongoing unwind of cash-and-carry trades, where institutions paired long spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) positions with short futures.

這標誌著降低投機性食慾的信號。期貨開放興趣也下降了35％，反映了對沖和套利活動的減少。值得注意的是，分析師強調了現金和攜帶的持續不斷的現金交易，該機構將長期交換基金（ETF）的職位與短期期貨配對。

This has triggered $378 million in CME futures closures and ETF outflows, pressuring spot markets. “However, as long-side bias starts to soften in the market, an unwinding of the carry-trade appears to be taking place,” Glassnode’s onchain report adds.

這觸發了3.78億美元的CME期貨關閉和ETF流出，這給現場市場施加了壓力。 GlassNode的OnChain Report補充說：“但是，隨著長時間偏見在市場上開始軟化，隨著隨身攜帶的貿易似乎正在發生。”

“This has resulted in substantial ETF outflows, and the closure of a similar volume of futures positions.”

“這導致了大量的ETF流出，並關閉了類似的期貨職位。”

The study shows options markets highlight rising risk aversion. The Volatility Smile metric reveals elevated premiums for put options, indicating traders are prioritizing downside protection. The 25 Delta Skew for one-week and one-month contracts also shows puts outpacing calls in cost—a pattern Glassnode ties to institutional caution.

該研究表明，期權市場強調了風險規避的上升。波動性的微笑指標顯示，POT選項的保費提高，表明交易者正在優先考慮下行保護。為期一個星期和一個月的合同，這25個三角洲的偏斜也表明，要付出了代價，這是一個謹慎的玻璃節點紐帶。

Short-Term Holders (STHs) face acute stress, with unrealized losses nearing cycle highs, the report disclosed. A record $7 billion in STH losses has been locked in since February, though Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC note this remains milder than 2021–2022 capitulation events. Long-Term Holders (LTHs), meanwhile, are reducing sell-side activity.

該報告披露，短期持有人（STHS）面臨急性應力，未實現的損失接近週期高。自2月份以來，創紀錄的70億美元的STH損失已被鎖定，儘管Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC注意到這仍然比2021 - 2022年投降活動更溫和。同時，長期持有人（LTHS）正在減少賣方活動。

“We can evaluate the percentage of the total Long-Term Holder balance sent to exchange addresses,” the researchers add.

研究人員補充說：“我們可以評估發送給交換地址的長期持有人餘額的百分比。”

“By this metric, we can see a pronounced, but swift spike in distribution as the market traded down into the low-$80k range. This suggests that some long-term investors opted to de-risk, taking profits off the table amidst the uptick in volatility.”

“按照這個指標，我們可以看到明顯的，但隨著市場的交易量為低至8萬美元的範圍，我們可以看到一個明顯的分銷峰值。這表明一些長期投資者選擇降級風險，在波動性上漲中脫穎而出。”

Glassnode’s analysis adds that LTHs still control 40% of Bitcoin’s wealth, presenting a potential supply overhang. But their restraint—paired with STH distress—shows a bifurcated market.

GlassNode的分析補充說，LTHS仍控制比特幣財富的40％，表現出潛在的供應懸垂。但是，他們的約束（以STH的困擾為準）展示了分叉的市場。

“When we look at the investor response to volatility, we see two divergent stories,” the report concludes. “First, Short-Term Holders are taking some of the largest losses of the cycle, reflecting a measure of fear. Long-Term Holders on the other hand, have slowed their spending, seeming to move away from sell-side distribution, and perhaps back towards patient accumulation and holding.”

報告總結說：“當我們看一下投資者對波動性的反應時，我們會看到兩個不同的故事。” “首先，短期持有人正在佔據周期中最大的損失，這反映了一種恐懼的措施。另一方面，長期持有人減慢了支出，似乎擺脫了賣方的分佈，也許又回到了患者的積累和持有。”

As liquidity tightens and volatility persists, bitcoin’s path will depend on whether institutional demand can counterbalance wary retail sentiment—an intriguing dynamic everyone will be watching this year.

隨著流動性的收緊和波動性的持續性，比特幣的道路將取決於機構需求是否可以抵消零售情緒，這是一個有趣的動態，每個人都將在今年觀看。