比特币在市场动荡期间的历史不一定鼓励这次成功机会

随着全球经济急切地等待特朗普总统的关税公告，一些交易者已经在考虑最坏的情况。

As the global economic landscape anxiously anticipates President Trump's tariff announcements, some traders are already contemplating worst-case scenarios. In today's turbulent climate, that notion evokes stagflation—a troublesome economic condition characterized by high inflation and low growth.

正如全球经济格局急切地预期特朗普总统的关税公告时，一些交易者已经在考虑最糟糕的情况。在当今动荡的气候下，这种概念唤起了停滞，这是一种麻烦的经济状况，其特征是高通货膨胀和低增长。

"Tariffs are a staglationary shock to the economy. They reduce growth and raise inflation," explains Zach Pandl, head of research at digital asset manager Grayscale and a former senior economist at Goldman Sachs. "What we don't know is the mix in terms of stagnation and inflation. At the moment, markets are more focused on stagnation, but we very well may see more inflation persistence over time."

“关税是对经济的停滞冲击。它们减少了增长并提高通货膨胀，”数字资产经理Grayscale研究负责人Zach Pandl解释说。 “我们不知道的是停滞和通货膨胀。目前，市场更加集中于停滞，但随着时间的流逝，我们很可能会看到更多的通货膨胀持续性。”

For many investors, especially those with bitcoin exposure, a key question is how this asset class will perform in such an environment. After all, the last period of stagflalion, at least in the U.S., occurred in the 1970s due to the Arab oil embargo of the U.S. These are questions that have not needed to be addressed for 50 years—long before Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the famous Bitcoin white paper.

对于许多投资者来说，尤其是那些拥有比特币曝光的投资者，一个关键的问题是该资产类别在这种环境中的表现。毕竟，至少在美国，由于美国的阿拉伯石油禁运，这是1970年代，这些问题是在1970年代发生的，这些问题是50年来不需要解决的问题 - 长时间之前，Nakamoto撰写了著名的比特币白皮书。

Bitcoin's history during periods of market turmoil isn't necessarily encouraging. During the market recession in 2020 at the outset of the COVID pandemic, the asset briefly dropped below $4,000. At other times of market stress, such as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade in August 2024 or the broader market downturn in 2022, it behaved more like a speculative asset than the store of value that it is purported to be.

在市场动荡时期，比特币的历史不一定鼓励。在2020年的市场经济衰退期间，在Covid大流行一开始，该资产短暂降至4,000美元以下。在其他时期，诸如2024年8月日元日元携带贸易的放松或2022年更广泛的市场下滑，其表现更像是投机性的资产，而不是据称它的价值存储。

However, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about bitcoin's chances this time, Pandl says. "Much like the 1970s was a breakout period for gold [which had an average annualized 31% return], I believe that the coming decade will be a breakout period for Bitcoin. It's the right macro asset at the right time, and we have significant improvements in market structure creating more investor access to the product."

但是，有理由对这次比特币的机会保持谨慎乐观。 “就像1970年代是黄金的突破期（平均每年31％的回报率），我相信未来十年将是比特币的突破期。这是正确时间的正确宏观资产，而且我们在市场结构上取得了重大改善，从而创造了更多的投资者对产品的访问。”

Stagflation = Gold Rush

滞留=淘金热

Stagflation is an exceptionally rare occurrence, even during poor economic climes. The U.S. has had 16 recessions in the past 100 years, but only one period of stagflation: the 1970s. And given the economy's ongoing resilience, it's not a material concern yet.

即使在经济差的糟糕的情况下，僵局也是一个异常罕见的发生。在过去的100年中，美国有16个衰退，但只有一个陷阱：1970年代。鉴于经济持续的弹性，这还不是重大问题。

"Although there are concerns about stagflation, we're nowhere near what occurred in the Seventies. At that period of time, there was a period of excess in the Sixties, the Vietnam War, and then you also had this exogenous shock of the Arab oil embargoes. The price of energy skyrocketed and the nation just was not ready for it," says Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick went on to point out how, at 4% unemployment, the U.S. economy remains in an enviable position. Also, inflation, which peaked to 1970s levels just a couple of years ago, is now down to 2-3%.

“尽管对停滞有担忧，但我们还远没有七十年代发生的事情。在那段时间里，六十年代的越南战争中有一段过剩的时期，然后你也遭受了阿拉伯石油禁运的这种外源性冲击。能量的价格飞涨，国家还没有准备好，” Steve sosnick sosnick bytive of noternick of noternick areve of It for It。索斯尼克（Sosnick）继续指出，在4％的失业率下，美国经济状况如何仍然令人羡慕。同样，几年前达到1970年代水平的通货膨胀现在降至2-3％。

But even according to Sosnick, the threshold for stagflation does not have to meet the trauma of the 1970s. "If you want to define stagflation as a period involving a stagnating economy and higher prices, then I think it's hardly an idle concern," he says.

但是，即使索斯尼克（Sosnick）认为，滞留的门槛也不必符合1970年代的创伤。他说：“如果您想将停滞定义为涉及经济停滞和更高价格的时期，那么我认为这并不是一个闲置的问题。”

So how did markets react to the shock of the oil embargo, which started in 1973? They bought gold and moved away from stocks, as indicated in the chart below. The S&P 500 only gained 26.99% for the entire decade, an annualized growth rate of a little over 2%. Considering the double-digit inflation of that period, anyone holding shares in those stocks lost money in real terms. Conversely, gold offered 30% annualized returns for most of the decade, and then it surged more than 500% at the tail end of the decade after concerns about persistent inflation really took hold.

那么，市场对1973年开始的石油禁运的冲击有何反应？如下图所示，他们购买了黄金并远离股票。标准普尔500指数在整个十年中仅上涨了26.99％，年增长率略高于2％。考虑到那个时期的两位数通货膨胀，持有这些股票股份的任何人实际损失了钱。相反，在过去的十年中，黄金在大部分时间里提供了30％的年度回报，然后在十年的尾声中飙升了500％以上，此前对持续通货膨胀的担忧确实得到了持续。

This inverse relationship between gold and stocks has been consistent through the decades. The only real exception was when they rose at the same rate during the COVID outbreak as the Federal Reserve injected trillions of dollars into the economy and buttressed virtually every asset class in the world.

在过去的几十年中，黄金与股票之间的这种反相关关系一直保持一致。唯一真正的例外是，当美联储向经济中注入了数万亿美元，并在世界上几乎支撑世界上的每个资产类别时，它们都以相同的速度上升。

It is even holding true again in 2025 as concerns about the impact of President Trump's erratic tariff policies spook markets. Gold continues to set record highs, and it is currently priced at $3,171 per oz, while bitcoin is trailing both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

由于对特朗普总统不稳定的关税政策的影响，它甚至在2025年再次实现。 Gold继续创造了创纪录的高点，目前的价格为每一盎司3,171美元，而比特币则落后于标准普尔500指数和技术繁重的纳斯达克100。

Bitcoin: Finally a Safe Haven?

比特币：终于是一个避风港？

Will things be different this time? It is important to

这次情况会有所不同吗？重要的是