XRP长期持有人在潜在的40％的价格下降至1.21美元之前积累

尽管有明显的看涨，但技术指标仍表明潜在的40％下降到1.21美元。

Long-term holders of XRP are once again accumulating, a trend that has often been observed to precede market corrections, according to Glassnode. However, despite this apparent bullishness, technical indicators suggest a potential 40% decline in XRP towards $1.21.

根据GlassNode的说法，XRP的长期持有人再次积累，这种趋势经常被观察到在市场校正之前。然而，尽管明显看涨，但技术指标表明，XRP的潜在下降了40％，达到1.21美元。

Long-Term Holder Accumulation: A Cautionary Tale

长期持有人的积累：一个警示性的故事

长期持有人的积累：一个警示性的故事

Data from Glassnode shows that the “Percent of XRP Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” has begun to rise after a substantial decrease during XRP’s rally above $3 in early 2025.

来自GlassNode的数据表明，“ XRP供应量的最后一个活性百分比1多年前”在2025年初的XRP拉力赛中大幅下降后开始上升。

While this uptick may indicate a return of confidence among dormant holders, an examination of previous market cycles reveals a concerning pattern. Periods of rising "Percent of XRP Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago" have often coincided with either price stagnation or declines.

尽管这种上升可能表明休眠持有人之间有信心的回报，但对以前的市场周期的检查表明了一个有关模式。 “ XRP供应百分比上次活跃1多年前”的时期通常与价格停滞或下降相吻合。

During XRP’s ascent to a multi-year high of $3.40, the dormant supply metric fell sharply, indicating that long-term holders were selling into the rally. However, this trend has reversed since February 2025, suggesting that holders are now locking up their assets as prices have declined by over 30%.

在XRP上升至3.40美元的多年高点时，休眠的供应指标急剧下降，表明长期持有人正在销售集会。但是，自2025年2月以来，这种趋势已经逆转，这表明持有人现在锁定其资产，因为价格下降了30％以上。

These patterns closely resemble those observed during the bear markets of 2018 and 2021. For instance, in late 2017, when XRP reached an all-time high of $3.55, there was a surge in selling activity among long-dormant holders. A similar scenario unfolded in 2021 when XRP hit a local peak around $1.80, followed by distribution among long-term holders and subsequent price consolidation.

这些模式与2018年和2021年熊市中观察到的模式非常类似。当XRP在1.80美元左右达到当地峰值时，在2021年展开了类似的情况，然后在长期持有人之间分配以及随后的价格合并。

Descending Triangle Signals Potential Breakdown

下降三角信号潜在的故障

下降三角信号潜在的故障

Furthermore, XRP is forming a descending triangle on its weekly chart, a pattern that is typically associated with bearish breakdowns. As of April 3, 2025, XRP is trading within a critical support range of $1.95 to $2.00. A breakdown below this level could lead to a fall towards $1.21, a significant historical resistance level that may now act as support. The declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates bearish momentum.

此外，XRP在其每周图表上形成了一个下降三角形，这种模式通常与看跌的分解有关。截至2025年4月3日，XRP的交易在1.95美元至2.00美元的关键支持范围内。低于此水平的细分可能会导致1.21美元跌落，这是一个重要的历史阻力水平，现在可以作为支持。相对强度指数下降（RSI）也表明看跌动量。

Understanding the cyclical nature of XRP’s market movements is crucial for traders and investors. Throughout history, XRP has exhibited a pattern where sharp price increases are met with profit-taking by long-term holders, ultimately leading to corrections.

了解XRP市场发展的周期性对于贸易商和投资者至关重要。在整个历史上，XRP都表现出一种模式，其中长期持有人的盈利能力达到了巨大的价格上涨，最终导致了更正。

Key Technical Indicators and Market Outlook

关键技术指标和市场前景

关键技术指标和市场前景

* XRP is forming a descending triangle on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential breakdown.

* XRP在每周图表上形成一个下降三角形，这表明潜在的崩溃。

* Critical support zone: $1.95 to $2.00. A breakdown below this range could open the path for a move towards $1.21.

*关键支持区：$ 1.95至$ 2.00。低于此范围的故障可能会为驶向$ 1.21的途径开辟道路。

* Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a declining trend, indicating bearish momentum.

*相对强度指数（RSI）处于趋势下降，表明看跌动量。

* Long-term holders are accumulating, which is often observed during market corrections.

*长期持有人正在积累，这通常在市场校正期间观察到。

Trading Strategies for XRP Investors

XRP投资者的交易策略

XRP投资者的交易策略

Short-Term Trading Approach

短期交易方法

短期交易方法

* Enter short trades at the upper boundary of the triangle with a stop loss above recent highs.

*在三角形的上部边界上输入短交易，并以高于最近的高点的停止损失。

* Aim for a target at the lower boundary of the triangle.

*瞄准三角形下边界的目标。

* Consider using technical indicators like RSI and MACD to confirm trading signals.

*考虑使用RSI和MACD等技术指标确认交易信号。

Long-Term Investment Strategy

长期投资策略

长期投资策略

* Average down on any further price declines, especially if there is a strong macroeconomic recovery.

*任何进一步的价格下降的平均值下降，尤其是在宏观经济恢复强劲的情况下。

* Set a long-term price target based on Fibonacci retracements or other technical analysis methods.

*基于斐波那契回波或其他技术分析方法设定长期目标目标。

* Stay informed about any major technical formations or shifts in market trends.

*请了解任何主要技术形式或市场趋势转变。

Final Thoughts: Caution Amid Accumulation

最终想法：谨慎积累

最终想法：谨慎积累

While the fact that long-term holders are accumulating suggests renewed confidence in XRP, it’s important to note that periods of such accumulation have often been observed to precede market corrections. Technical indicators are also signaling potential bearish formations, which traders should keep in mind.

尽管长期持有人积累的事实表明对XRP的信心重新信心，但重要的是要注意，经常观察到这种积累的时期是在市场纠正之前。技术指标也表明了交易者应记住的潜在看跌构造。

As always, comprehensive market analysis and sound risk management strategies are crucial for navigating the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape.

与往常一样，全面的市场分析和合理的风险管理策略对于导航不断变化的加密货币景观至关重要。