特朗普的关税政策冲击了拨浪鼓市场，但这是需要的吗？

财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）周五对市场的绊脚石进行了解决，主要追踪萧条主要在“宏伟的7”（MAG 7）中降低了 - 阿马森，特斯拉，微软，梅塔，梅塔，恩维迪亚和同龄人 - 比特朗普的贸易措施相比。

U.S. equities tumbled sharply Thursday, hours after President Donald Trump introduced expansive trade levies in what several analysts believe is a move to slow the economy and lower debt burdens.

在唐纳德·特朗普总统提出庞大的贸易征税之后，美国股票急剧跌落，几个分析师认为这是减慢经济和降低债务负担的举动。

The administration’s aim to orchestrate a downturn has been a subject of speculation throughout 2024, as February saw the year-to-date federal deficit hit $1.15 trillion—a 38% increase from 2024 and spurring urgent calls to cut spending.

政府策划低迷的目的是整个2024年的猜测，因为2月的联邦赤字达到了11.1.5万亿美元，比2024年增加了38％，并激发了削减支出的紧急呼吁。

This strategy, which the research firm The Kobeissi Letter claims was discussed and decided upon even before Trump’s January inauguration, has already seen trillions wiped from U.S. stock valuations and driven investors toward safe-haven assets like gold—which has been tapping new lifetime highs.

研究公司Kobeissi信件声称的这一策略甚至在特朗普一月份就职典礼之前就已经讨论并决定了这一策略，但已经看到了美国股票估值的数万亿美元，并驱使投资者朝着诸如黄金之类的安全资产驱动了新的终生高点。

Cryptocurrencies and equities have also suffered steep losses. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Trump’s circle views a recession as the fastest path to lower rates ahead of the 2025 debt refinancing cliff.

加密货币和股票也遭受了巨大的损失。根据Kobeissi的信，特朗普的圈子将经济衰退视为在2025年债务再融资悬崖之前降低利率的最快途径。

“Does everyone saying we have a ‘great economy’ realize we are $37 trillion in debt and it costs over $1 trillion to service the debt?” asked Jacob Canfield. “The only way out is by refinancing our debt at lower interest rates. And the only way to get lower rates? Crash the market. Force the Fed’s hand. Make them cut rates. When rates drop the U.S. can roll over debt more cheaply. When you get cheap debt everything will go up. Short term: crash for real estate, stocks, and crypto and boom for gold and precious metals. Long term: new all time highs across the board.”

“每个人都说我们有'伟大的经济'意识到我们的债务37万亿美元，为债务偿还债务的费用超过1万亿美元吗？”雅各布·坎菲尔德问。 “唯一的出路是将我们的债务以较低的利率进行再融资。以及获得较低利率的唯一方法？崩溃了市场。迫使美联储的手。当利率下降时，美国可以更便宜地偿还债务。当您获得便宜的债务时，一切都会上升。短期：房地产，股票，股票，股票，股票和繁荣的金属和繁重的金属。

Canfield's analysis aligns with the thinking of Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes, who penned an April 3 note saying that the Fed will ultimately be forced to respond.

Canfield的分析与Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes的想法保持一致，后者写了4月3日的笔记，称美联储最终将被迫做出回应。

“Trump's tariff formula is further evidence he is laser focused on reversing these imbalances. We covered this in a prior note, but foreign surplus units largely invest in the U.S. and buy up dollar-denominated assets such as Treasuries to park their savings in a "safe" haven. But without a trade surplus, foreign entities have no reason to continue mopping up the riski installment of the U.S. financial system. This is partly why Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and levied tariffs on China. He wants to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and shift the flows of capital back into the States. The problem for treasuries is that without $ exports foreigners can’t buy bonds. The Fed and banking system must step up to ensure a well functioning treasury market, which means Brrrr.”

“特朗普的关税配方进一步证明了他的激光侧重于扭转这些不平衡。我们在先前的笔记中介绍了这一点，但是外国的盈余单位在很大程度上投资于美国，并购买了以美元计价的资产（例如，诸如国债，可以将其储蓄停在“安全”避风港中。在中国的跨太平洋伙伴关系和征收关税中。

Administration officials have also tipped their hand on this strategy in recent months. At a March 6 event, Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated plainly that the “stock market [is] not driving outcomes.”

近几个月来，政府官员还向这一策略发挥了作用。在3月6日的活动中，商务部长卢特尼克（Lutnick）清楚地表示，“股票市场不推动成果”。

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today addressed the market's stumble, attributing it to declines among the "Magnificent 7" (Mag 7)—Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and peers—rather than Trump's trade measures. He noted the Nasdaq's all-time high coincided with Chinese AI firm Deepseek's launch of advanced language models, sparking unease over the competitiveness of American tech investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

同时，财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）今天解决了市场的绊脚石，将其归因于“宏伟的7”（MAG 7）（Amazon，Tesla，Microsoft，Microsoft，Meta，Nvidia和Paceers），而不是特朗普的贸易措施。他指出，纳斯达克的历史最高含量与中国AI公司DeepSeek推出高级语言模型相吻合，这引起了美国技术投资在人工智能（AI）的竞争力的不安。

Bessent asserted, "That's a Mag 7 issue rather than a MAGA issue," framing the decline as specific to tech equities, not wider tariff shifts.

Bessent断言：“这是一个Mag 7问题，而不是Maga问题”，将下降构建为特定于技术股票而不是更广泛的关税转移。

This view is shared by several observers, who suggest Trump's inner circle may be intentionally aiming for a downturn to facilitate restructuring the nation's towering debt obligations.

几位观察家分享了这种观点，他们认为特朗普的内心圈子可能是故意的，目的是使经济低迷促进重组该国的高耸债务义务。

The strategy, which the research firm The Kobeissi Letter claims was discussed and decided upon even before Trump's January inauguration, has already seen trillions wiped from U.S. stock valuations and driven investors toward safe-haven assets like gold—which has been tapping new lifetime highs.

研究公司Kobeissi信件声称的这项策略甚至在特朗普一月份就职典礼之前就已经进行了讨论并决定了这项策略，已经看到了美国股票估值的数万亿美元，并驱使投资者朝着诸如黄金之类的安全资产中驱动了新的终生高点。

Cryptocurrencies and equities have also suffered steep losses. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Trump's team views a recession as the fastest path to lower rates ahead of the 2025 debt refinancing cliff.

加密货币和股票也遭受了巨大的损失。根据Kobeissi的信，特朗普的团队认为经济衰退是在2025年债务再融资悬崖之前降低利率的最快途径。

"Does everyone saying we have a ‘great economy’ realize we are $37 trillion in debt and it costs over $1 trillion to service the debt?" asked Jacob Canfield. "The only way out is by refinancing our debt at lower interest rates. And the only way to get lower rates? Crash the market. Force the Fed's hand. Make them cut rates. When rates drop the U.S. can roll over debt more cheaply. When you get cheap debt everything will go up. Short term: crash for real estate, stocks, and crypto and boom for gold and precious metals. Long term: new all time highs across the board."

“每个人都说我们有'伟大的经济'意识到我们的债务37万亿美元，为债务偿还债务的费用超过1万亿美元吗？”雅各布·坎菲尔德问。 “唯一的出路是将我们的债务以较低的利率进行再融资。以及获得较低利率的唯一方法？崩溃了市场。迫使美联储的手。使它们降低利率。​​当利率下降时，美国可以更便宜地偿还债务。当您获得便宜的债务时，便会上涨。短期：房地产，股票，股票，股票，股票，加油和繁荣的金属和珍贵的金属。

Canfield's analysis aligns with the thinking of Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes, who penned an April 3 note saying that the Fed will ultimately be

Canfield的分析与Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes的思考相吻合，后者写了4月3日的笔记，说美联储最终将是