随着比特币的篮板为82,000美元，Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes认为，该资产可以从美国债券市场中的当前混乱中受益。

海耶斯认为，与以前的市场冲击不同的是BTC随股票下跌，这次可能会看到比特币集会。

As Bitcoin (BTC) price currently trades above the $82k level, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has suggested that the asset may be set to benefit from the current chaos unfolding in the U.S. bond market.

随着比特币（BTC）价格目前的交易高于$ 82K的水平，Bitmex的联合创始人Arthur Hayes建议该资产可以从美国债券市场中的当前混乱中受益。

While previous market shocks often saw BTC fall alongside stocks, this time could see Bitcoin rally, according to Hayes.

据海斯说，尽管以前的市场冲击经常看到BTC与股票旁边掉落，但这次可能会看到比特币集会。

Why Does Hayes See Bond Chaos as Bullish for BTC?

为什么海斯将邦德混乱视为BTC的看涨？

The recent 4.50% (a six-week high) rise in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had clearly spooked traders and investors.

最近的4.50％（六周高）在美国美国财政部的10年收益率上升，显然使交易者和投资者惊叹不已。

This sharp surge is the breaking point for traditional markets, and the Fed is on the clock, warned Hayes.

海耶斯警告说，这种急剧的激增是传统市场的突破点，美联储正在钟表时钟。

His remarks come after a day of volatility in global markets saw Treasury yields hit a six-

在全球市场上的一天波动之后，他的讲话发生了六个奖项的收益率达到了六个。

week high.

周高。

While some reports pointed fingers at China selling bonds, market insiders argue the real pressure appears more structural and liquidity-driven rather than purely geopolitical.

尽管一些报道指着中国出售债券的手指，但市场内部人士认为，真正的压力似乎更具结构性和流动性驱动，而不是纯粹的地缘政治。

Specifically, as noted by analysts like Jim Bianco recently, rising yields are likely forcing big TradFi hedge funds to unwind highly leveraged “basis trades” (profiting from small differences between cash bonds and futures), similar to what USDe is in crypto.

具体来说，正如吉姆·比安科（Jim Bianco）等分析师所指出的那样，上升的收益率可能迫使大型Tradfi对冲基金放松了高度利用的“基础交易”（从现金债券和期货之间的微小差异中获利），类似于USDE在Crypto中。

When yields jump quickly, the bond prices held by these funds drop, triggering margin calls and forced selling – a process called “deleveraging.”

当收益率迅速上升时，这些资金持有的债券价格下跌，触发保证金电话和强迫销售 - 这一过程称为“去杠杆化”。

This forced selling puts even more upward pressure on yields, creating a negative feedback loop that weighs on both stocks and crypto – at least initially.

这种强制销售给收益率带来了更大的向上压力，产生了负重的反馈循环，至少在股票和加密货币上都重视。

However, Hayes is more interested in what comes next: Federal Reserve intervention. He believes a return to quantitative easing (QE) or even yield curve control could be necessary if the bond market seizes up.

但是，海斯对接下来的事情更感兴趣：美联储干预。他认为，如果债券市场抓住了，则需要进行定量宽松（QE）甚至屈服曲线控制。

Such actions would flood the system with liquidity, creating what he previously dubbed the “Yachtzee” setup he anticipates for Bitcoin.

这样的行动将充满流动性，从而创造了他以前称为比特币预期的“ Yachtzee”设置的东西。

Hayes draws a parallel to March 2020, the last time the Fed began large-scale QE. At that point, Bitcoin was trading under $10,000 and by November 2021, BTC had surged to its previous all-time high near $69,000.

海耶斯（Hayes）与2020年3月相似，美联储上次开始大规模量化宽松。那时，比特币的交易低于10,000美元，到2021年11月，BTC已飙升至以前的历史高处接近69,000美元。

Now, he sees a similar setup unfolding again, and BTC might break its correlation with stocks if the Fed were to inject liquidity.

现在，他看到类似的设置再次展开，如果美联储注入流动性，BTC可能会破坏与股票的相关性。

What Are the Short-Term Risks to This Thesis?

本文的短期风险是什么？

Hayes acknowledges that short-term risks remain with Bitcoin’s strong ties to equities means continued short-term volatility, especially if yields keep rising.

海耶斯承认，短期风险仍然存在比特币与股票的牢固联系意味着持续的短期波动，尤其是在收益率不断上升的情况下。

But should the Fed bring back liquidity, history suggests BTC could front-run a monetary pivot.

但是，如果美联储带回流动性，历史表明，BTC可以领先货币枢纽。

“Enjoy the chop till it lasts and Bitcoin might lead, not lag, the next macro move,” concludes Hayes’ message.

Hayes的信息总结说：“直到持续下去，比特币可能会导致，而不是滞后，这是下一个宏观移动。”